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Carlos Gascó Head of the Prospective Unit

Uitilities’ stronger bet for renewables An analysis from the renewable power generator. Carlos Gascó Head of the Prospective Unit. Key drivers for a new energy model. ENERGETY SECURITY. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY. Reasonable cost of electricity

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Carlos Gascó Head of the Prospective Unit

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  1. Uitilities’ stronger bet for renewablesAn analysis from the renewable powergenerator Carlos Gascó Head of the Prospective Unit IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  2. Key drivers for a new energy model ENERGETY SECURITY ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY • Reasonable cost of electricity • Essential for the social lifestile and the competitiveness • Dependence growing, and so are doing geopolitical clashes ENVIRONMENT • Global Warming (Kioto commitments) • Sustainable use of Natural Resources IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  3. What would be the effects in an 100 $/barrel scenario and 25 €/Tn CO2 emissions? • A short term analysis: • Renewables are today more expensive. They need to receive finantial support from consumers • However, those costs are the result of a simple and static analysis: • Prices include energy dependence? • These figures internalyze all environmental costs? • How fuel price will evolve? • What effects would produce a sharp CO2 cost increase? Average generation costs (€/MWh) 200-300 190-280 350 300 250 200 100-110 150 60-80 80-100 60-70 75-85 70-80 70-80 50-60 100 60-65 30-40 40-60 50-60 50 0 Hydro CCGT Wind Biomass Solar Coal Fuel Fuel effect: increase barrel price to 100$ MDL effect: CO2 at 25€ Tn IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  4. Strong need for investment • IEA believes it is necessary to invest some 20 trillion dolars in the 2005-2030 period in order to satisfy future energy demand Source: IEA IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

  5. The crossroads: What is the path to follow? • HYDROCARBONS: • Limited reserves • High political risks • Large environmental impact • COAL: • Large reserves. Low political risk • High enviromental impact • “Bridge technology” • CO2 Capture & • “Clean coal” • NATURAL GAS: • Large reserves • Geographically diversified • sources • Growing political risks • Lower environmental impact Population and economic output increase energy demand Energy at a reasonable cost is a must Enviroment restrictions Fossil fuel reserves and economic implications • RENEWABLE ENERGY: • Higher investment costs • Wide social dialogue • International collaboration • Enhanced interconnections • Need for R&D • EU Target: 20% by 2020 • NUCLEAR ENERGY: • - Risky. Only “safe countries” • High specific investment • Treatment of radioactive waste • Social unrest Renewables deliver energy and environmental advantages but also economic IBERDROLA RENEWABLE ENERGIES

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