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U.S. Shale Gas and Global Energy Dr. James L. Smith, Southern Methodist University

U.S. Shale Gas and Global Energy Dr. James L. Smith, Southern Methodist University . Hong Kong Baptist University Workshop on Electricity Reliability, Environment, and Cost June 10, 2014. Today’s Presentation:. What is shale gas? How is it affecting the US energy scene?

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U.S. Shale Gas and Global Energy Dr. James L. Smith, Southern Methodist University

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  1. U.S. Shale Gas and Global Energy Dr. James L. Smith, Southern Methodist University Hong Kong Baptist UniversityWorkshop on Electricity Reliability, Environment, and Cost June 10, 2014

  2. Today’s Presentation: • What is shale gas? • How is it affecting the US energy scene? • How will it affect global energy markets? • What are the benefits for Asian consumers and industry?

  3. U.S. Gas Production (tcf)

  4. Shale Beds are the Original Source of Gas

  5. Fracking and Horizontal Drilling are the Keys

  6. Chesapeake Energy Gas Rig -- Pennsylvania

  7. Click to Play Video

  8. Shale Basins are Widespread

  9. Global Shale Basins Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  10. Technically Recoverable Shale Gas Resources Total = 7,299 TCF Source: U.S. EIA, June 10, 2013

  11. The Contribution of Horizontal Wells Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  12. U.S. Shale Plays Also Attract Foreign Investors Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  13. KNOC Upstream Oil & Gas Projects Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  14. Dramatic Rise of U.S. Shale Gas Production

  15. Potential Future Impact on U.S. Gas Price

  16. Shale Gas Impact on U.S. Price Source: K. Medlock, “U.S. LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence”

  17. U.S. Coal Consumption for Electricity Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Deutsche Bank

  18. U.S. Coal Exports (net) 1,000 short tons Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  19. Shale Gas Pushes Coal into Export Channel … and depresses the price. Source: U.S. Energy Information Admin., U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  20. Europe & Asia Receive More U.S. Coal Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  21. Potential Impact on GHG Emissions

  22. Gas Consumption Represents a GHG Tradeoff As gas-based emissions rise, emissions from other fuels fall by more. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  23. How to Replace Nuclear: Coal or Gas?

  24. Global LNG Market Imbalance Source: K. Medlock, “U.S. LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence”

  25. Profitability of U.S. LNG Exports Source: K. Medlock, “U.S. LNG Exports: Truth and Consequence”

  26. Shale Gas: Focus on China

  27. China Primary Energy Consumption

  28. China: Power Generation

  29. China: LNG Imports are Diversified

  30. The New Russian-Chinese Pipeline Gas Deal • 38 billion cubic meters/year @ $10/mmbtu • ≈ 25% of Russian gas exports to Europe • ≈ 10-15% of total Chinese gas supply by 2020

  31. China’s Shale Gas Upside Potential Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  32. China’s Primary Shale Gas Basins Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

  33. China Electric Power: Coal vs. Everything Else

  34. Concluding Thoughts • Expanding supplies of US shale gas are pushing energy prices down, in the US and abroad. • Global arbitrage will tend to reduce (but not eliminate) the wedge between U.S. and Asian gas prices. • Shale gas is pushing coal out of U.S. power generation and into the export stream—resulting in lower coal prices but increased carbon emissions in Europe. • The U.S. shale gas revolution represents only the tip of the iceberg, with impacts likely to grow as the global abundance of shale resources is recognized and exploited. • All energy consumers (especially import-dependent consumers like Japan, Taiwan, and Korea) will benefit from the abundance of gas. Producers of competing fuels (coal and oil) will not.

  35. Thank You! jsmith@smu.edu

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