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COSMO-SREPS Priority Project

COSMO-SREPS Priority Project. C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS methodology. larger scale errors. driving model error. analysis error at the global model scale. LAM ensemble. limited-area model error: schemes, parameters,

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COSMO-SREPS Priority Project

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  1. COSMO-SREPS Priority Project C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM - HydroMeteorological Service of Emilia-Romagna, Bologna, Italy

  2. COSMO-SREPS methodology larger scale errors driving model error analysis error at the global model scale LAM ensemble limited-area model error: schemes, parameters, surface forcings smaller scale errors • i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model multi-boundary (SREPS) • model perturbations -> parameter perturbation (fixed value throughout the integration to test the impact of the different parameter perturbations)

  3. System applications • COSMO Priority Project -> Short-Range Ensemble • 1D-Var DA of satellite data to provide retrievals to be nudged within 7km COSMO-I7: test of the use of COSMO-SREPS to estimate a flow-dependent B matrix • COSMO-SREPS provides boundary conditions for the ensemble system at 2.8 km under development at DWD (COSMO-DE-EPS)

  4. Involved COSMO people • Marsigli, Montani, Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM): 1.5 FTE • Flora Gofa, Petroula Louka (HNMS): verification, 0.5 FTE • Collaboration: • Susanne Theis, Christoph Gebhardt (DWD): EELMK • Uli Schaettler (DWD): COSMO model code

  5. Task 0. Preliminary actions for the system set-up: completed. Task 1. Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories: completed Task 2. Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial conditions: suspended Task 3. System set-up: completed(set-up for the JJASON 2007 period during the MAP D-PHASE DOP) Task 4. Test on case studies: on-going(21 runs in autumn 2006 done, analysis on-going) Task 5. Test on a regular basis: on-going(running on the JJASON 2007 period during the MAP D-PHASE DOP) Task 6. Verification:on-going

  6. IFS – ECMWF global COSMO at 25 km on IFS System set-up P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: tur_len=1000 P4: pat_len=10000 GME – DWD global COSMO at 25 km on GME by INM Spain 16 COSMO runs 10 km hor. res. 40 vertical levels UM – UKMO global COSMO at 25 km on UM AVN – NCEP global COSMO at 25 km on NCEP

  7. intra-group distance14 days (00UTC runs) 2mT whole domain

  8. Daily precipitation ROC area Northern Italy + Switzerland observations Average over 0.5 x 0.5 deg boxes - +42h fc range

  9. Daily precipitation ROC area Northern Italy + Switzerland observations Average over 0.5 x 0.5 deg boxes - +66h fc range

  10. Relationship between error and spread Northern Italy observations Nearest grid point 12UTC runs

  11. ensemble mean 2m Temperature nearest grid point

  12. IFS GME NCEP UKMO Ensemble member verificationPrecipitation – 0-0.1 mm / 6h

  13. Tiedtke, pat_len500 Kain-Fritsch, pat_len500 Tiedtke, tur_len1000, pat_len500 Tiedtke, pat_len10000 Ensemble member verificationPrecipitation – 0-0.1 mm / 6h

  14. Deterministic scores – ave 0.5 x 0.5 IT+SV 1mm/24h 5mm/24h 10mm/24h 12 UTC

  15. Deterministic scores – ave 0.5 x 0.5 IT+SV 1mm/24h 5mm/24h 10mm/24h 12 UTC

  16. Conclusions • ic and bc perturbations contribute to the spread for an amount approximately double with respect to the parameter perturbations, statistically over the whole domain and the whole period in terms of 2mT. Locally (in space and time) the situation can be quite different • the selected parameters produce a detectable spread among members with the same father • rms error is grater than spread for all the events but the correlation is good • different fathers contribute differently to the skill, for different parameters this is less clear

  17. On-going activities • run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations for the DOP MAP D-PHASE (6 months, June-November 2007) : • statistical analysis of the system • comparison with the other available mesoscale ensemble systems • verification - system analysis (HNMS) • provide b.c. for DWD ensemble tests • test a flow-dependent B-matrix for 1D-Var of satellite data • test of different parameters (16 runs using only the IFS initial and boundary conditions)

  18. IFS – ECMWF global Test of parameter perturbations (same father) P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: parameter 1 P4: parameter 2 P5: … 16 LM runs at 10 km

  19. Fine

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