Millennium Cohort Study (MCS)

1. Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) Understanding Wales: Opportunities for Secondary Data Analysis Chris Taylor Wales Institute of Social & Economic Research, Data and Methods

2. What is the MCS? • A UK birth cohort study • The third major cohort study in the UK: • National Child Development Study – born in one week in March 1958 • British Cohort Study – born in one week in April 1970 • Millennium Cohort Study – born during 2000 • 2012 British Cohort Study

3. Cohort Studies • Sometimes referred to as a panel study • Longitudinal study: follows the same people over time • Observations and data collected at various points during the lifecycle (“sweeps” or “surveys”) • Two main forms of longitudinal analysis possible: • Observations are compared over time – i.e. changes over lifecourse • Prior conditions can be used to explain later outcomes* (* which may be known/unknown initially)

4. Aims of the MCS • A multi-purpose long-term resource for the research and policy community – more or less emphasis on biomarkers? • Charting the of the social, economic and health conditions facing the cohort and their consequences. Which dimensions of ‘development’? Beyond uni-directional accumulation of cognitive attainment, academic attainments and avoidance of adult-reported behavioural difficulties, freedom from illness and disability – identity, risk-taking, relationships, time use, physical activity, brain development ? The emergence of capabilities? • Observation of intergenerational transmission of advantage and disadvantage and the processes involved. Aspirations and expectations, agency of young person, role of school and peers. • Comparison with other British and international cohorts. Opportunities opening up, co-ordination through EUCCONET • Collecting ‘new’ information, eg father’s involvement ,- friends, internet, media, qualitative sub-studies, genetics, neuro-science? • To investigate the wider social ecology of the family, including community and services, splicing in geo-coded data Schools, siblings

5. Design of the MCS • Cohort born in all four seasons of the year • Includes children in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland • Geographically clustered by electoral ward • Over represents children from different ethnic groups and those in deprived areas

6. Sweeps of the MCS • MCS1: 2001-2002 (9 months old) – 19,000 children in 398 wards of the UK • MCS2: 2003-2004 (3 years old) • MCS3: 2006 (5 years old) • MCS4: 2008 (7 years old) • 2012 (11 years old) • 2015 (14 years old) • 2018 (17 years old)

7. Families in the first 3 surveys

8. MCS Content

9. Content of parent interviews • Household questionnaire (Either Parent) • Family Context (Main) • Early Education, schooling & childcare (Main) • Child & Family Activities (Main) • Parenting Activities (Main & Partner) • Child Health (Main) • Parent’s Health (Main & Partner) • Employment, Education and Income (Main & Partner) • Housing & Local Area (Main) + Interviewers MCS2 • Social and Community Context (Main & Partner) • Self-completion (Main & Partner) • Older Siblings (Age 3 and 5) (Main)

10. Direct assessments on child • Cognitive Assessments • Age appropriate e.g. BAS Naming Vocabulary at 3 and 5, • BAS Pattern Construction at 5 and 7 • Self Completed Questionnaire • New at age 7 • Physical Measurements • Height • Weight (+ Body fat at age 7) • Waist Measurement • Physical Activity, age 7 ( WT funded)

11. MCS in Wales • Boosted sample – representative sample • ‘Disadvantaged’ (25% most disadvantaged wards in England and Wales) (@ 69% of families in sample) • ‘Non-disadvantaged’ (the rest, ‘advantaged’)

12. Key references Hansen et al (2010) MCS Fourth Survey: A user’s guide to initial findings (CLS, IoE) Joshi and Hawkes (2006) Early and late entry to motherhood in Wales: report to the Welsh Assembly Government Dex et al (2010) The development of children living in Wales: final report to the Welsh Assembly Secondary Analysis Programme Jones et al (2010) An investigation into regional differences in child health and cognitive function: report for the Economic Research Unit, Welsh Assembly Government Joshi et al (2011) Child development at age seven in Wales, Welsh Government Social Research 25/2011

13. Key findings so far • Country-specific ‘effect’ of living in Wales on child health and cognitive functions (e.g. on occurrence of accidents, hospital admissions for non-accident illness, child obesity, BAS Naming Vocabulary scores (spoken English)), and seem to get stronger as the children age • Maternal characteristics seem more influential on child health and development than they do for children in England • Family income not as important in determining child health compared to other factors, and seems less important than in England • Cognitive development is associated with poverty (and neighbourhood) but other factors seem more important in determining these kinds of outcomes

14. Key findings continued • Different socio-economic indicators predict variation in different aspects of child development: complex relationships • Parenting behaviour influences outcomes, regardless of socio-economic advantage • Regular reading and ‘routines’ highly associated with preferable outcomes • Early years hugely influential on later outcomes (and ‘gaps’ tend to grow over time). Cumulative impact also important.

15. Key findings continued • Children from Welsh-speaking families tend to have lower levels of vocabulary skills (in English or Welsh) at age 3 and 5 but not in other cognitive developments. • This ‘gap’ seems to disappear at age 7 (delayed function?). • But children from Welsh-speaking homes have lower scores in maths at age 7

16. Future analysis • Home-international comparisons • The impact of testing in schools • Living and growing up in rural areas • Regional comparisons • The use and development of the Welsh language and bilingualism • The interrelationships between spatial and social mobility of families • Local variations • The presence and impact of higher levels of social capital amongst families in Wales • The impact of socio-economic disadvantage on attitudes towards education and future prospects

17. Further information • Dr Chris Taylor, WISERD Cardiff University taylorcm@cardiff.ac.uk @dr_christaylor • Centre for Longitudinal Studies (CLS), Institute of Education, University of London www.cls.ioe.ac.uk