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U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar

U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar. Alfred Spada Director of Marketing, PR & Communications. U.S. Metalcasting Profile U.S. Casting Forecast Global Competition. Outline. Profile of the U.S. Metalcasting Industry. 2170 Casting Facilities 700+ Ferrous; 1400+ Nonferrous

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U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & Trends Webinar

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  1. U.S. Metalcasting Forecast & TrendsWebinar Alfred Spada Director of Marketing, PR & Communications

  2. U.S. Metalcasting Profile U.S. Casting Forecast Global Competition Outline

  3. Profile of the U.S. Metalcasting Industry • 2170 Casting Facilities • 700+ Ferrous; 1400+ Nonferrous • Employs More Than 200,000 • 80% Are Small Businesses (less than 100 employees) • 2007: $32.3 Billion; 13.4 Million Tons • 2008: $33-34 Billion??; 13.4 Million Tons?? • 2nd in Production

  4. What Happened in 2007? • Imports for Light Vehicles: Forecasted at 21% of Demand; Reality is 24% of Demand • Med. To Heavy Trucks & Trailers: Forecasted 15% reduction (420,000 trucks/260,000 trailers); Reality is 25% reduction (370,000 trucks/229,000 trailers) • Housing Starts: Forecasted 3% growth; Reality 8% decline • Ductile Iron Pipe: Forecasted 2.3 million tons; Reality 2.07 million tons

  5. U.S. Production • 1955—6150 Plants • 1991—3200 Plants • 2008—2170 Plants • From ’91-’07, production capacity off only 4% • From ’91-’07, Alum growth at 91% (1.1 to 2.1 mil. Tons) • From ’91-’07, Mg growth at 331% (29,000 to 125,000 tons) • Greater number of castings produced today than in ‘91

  6. 2008 Capacity & Utilization

  7. 2008 Shipment Mix: Tons

  8. 2008 Shipment Mix: Sales

  9. Casting End-Use Markets

  10. Casting Shipments 1990-2007

  11. Projected Shipments(all metals) • 2009: 13.4 million tons$34.2 Billion in sales • 2011: 12.3 million tons; $31.8 Billion in sales • 2017: 14.14 million tons$42 billion in sales Forecast based on GDP, housing starts, auto, railcar and truck production, construction activity, end-user and supplier interviews.

  12. Shipment Forecast Through 2017

  13. Sales Forecast Through 2017

  14. What Happens in 2010-13? • Cyclical economic recession is expected every 10 years, affecting auto, rail, truck, construction, etc. • Happened in 2001, 1991, 1981, 1971, etc. • Forecasted by economic experts for 2011 • Similar Shipment tonnage as 2001 • Sales hit a low of $31.7 billion in 2011 • Truck/Trailer: 300,000/190,000 in 2012 • Freight Cars: 40,000 in 2012 • GDP: -0.2% growth in 2010-11

  15. Globalization & Imports

  16. Imports 2008 3,681,000 tons of castings 23.4% of demand (from 7% in 1998) • Gray Iron: 1,630,000 tons (29% of demand) • Ductile Iron: 576,000 tons (12% of demand) • Carbon and Low Alloy Steel: 266,000 tons (21% of demand) • Aluminum Die Castings: 334,000 tons (25% of demand) • Aluminum Permanent Mold/Sand: 566,000 tons (44% of demand) • Copper-Base: 67,000 tons (19% of demand)

  17. Imports to U.S. By Market: 2008

  18. Imports to U.S. By Country: 2008

  19. Metalcasting Across the Globe

  20. Global Production (in 000s metric tons)

  21. Global Production 2006 (metric tons) • China: 28.1 million—26,000 plants • U.S.: 12.5 million—2190 plants • Japan: 7.9 million—1701 plants • India: 7.2 million—4750 plants • Russia: 6.9 million—1900 plants • Germany: 5.5 million—619 plants • Brazil: 3.1 million—1372 plants • Italy: 2.6 million—1171 plants • France: 2.4 million—469 plants • Korea: 1.9 million—851 plants

  22. India Others China 8% Russia 31% 7% Easter Europe 2% Japan EU 9% 17% Other Asian 6% Brazil 3% U.S. 14% The Global Pie 14%

  23. Comparison of Casting Labor/Benefit Rates 2008

  24. European Markets Germany • Capacity Utilization: 92% for ductile iron, 83% for gray iron, 90% for aluminum; Maybe Higher • Normally a net exporter: 400,000 tons of ferrous casting in 2006 • 33% of gray and 30% of ductile iron production for Western Europe • Highest productivity per plant by 30% Russia • Produced 26 million tons in 1991 as Soviet Union; 7 million tons today • Suppliers love the possibilities • Capacity Utilization: 67% for ductile iron, 59% for gray iron, 92% for aluminum

  25. Latin America • Brazil • 3.1 million metric tons production • 1300 plants • Engineering Skill • Currency problems • Mexico • Nemak-largest aluminum caster in world • 1.7 million tons • Several large, rest small, no medium • Costs raising to U.S. levels

  26. China • 26,000 plants • 13.9 million tons gray, 6.8 million ductile, 3.8 million steel, 2.3 million aluminum • 15% growth from 2005-06 • Capacity Utilization: 67% gray iron and 75% for ductile iron and aluminum • Export 3.2 million tons in 2006

  27. India • 4750 Plants • 4th in the World: 4.8 million tons gray iron, 0.7 ductile, 0.9 steel, 0.5 aluminum • Since 2002, India’s output has doubled • Productivity rose 17.5% from 2005-06 • 160,000 employees

  28. Global Productivity Per Plant

  29. For Further Information • Metalcasting Forecast & Trends 2008 • Data Available By Metal, End-Use Market • Demand & Supply Forecast for Metal Castings in the U.S. (Vol 1 & 2) • Further Questions for AFS Corporate Members, email aspada@afsinc.org Thank You

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