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The end is nigh?

This document discusses the possibility of an upcoming recession, analyzing US recessions and macroeconomic volatility. It also explores the impact of President Trump and Brexit, as well as the historical trends in violent deaths. Additionally, it examines investment myths related to cyclically adjusted PE and the role of gold as a safe-haven asset.

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The end is nigh?

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  1. The end is nigh? William Hobbs Head of Investment Strategy November 2017

  2. “On what principal is it that, when we see nothing but improvement behind us, we are to expect nothing but deterioration before us...”Thomas Babington Macaulay (19th Century politician and historian)

  3. Is the next recession imminent?

  4. US recessions have become more infrequent Source: Datastream, Barclays

  5. US macroeconomic volatility has fallen Source: Datastream, Barclays

  6. Long run growth outweighs recessions Source: Datastream, Barclays

  7. Corporate profits closely linked to output Source: Datastream, Barclays

  8. Recession triggers vary... Source: IMF, Barclays

  9. Lead indicators tell us not yet (part 1) Source: Datastream, Barclays

  10. Lead Indicators tell us not yet (part 2) Source: Datastream, Barclays

  11. Does President Trump matter?

  12. Does the US president matter? • Source: Blinder and Watson, Barclays

  13. Is Brexit a disaster?

  14. Brexit – likely unhelpful... Source: Datastream, Barclays

  15. Peace in our time?

  16. Ethnographic evidence in violence Share of violent deaths – Ethnographic evidence from nonstate societies Source: OutWorldInData.org, Barclays Share of violent deaths – State societies

  17. Homicide rates in Europe since 1300 Source: OutWorldInData.org, Barclays

  18. Rate of Violent Deaths in Nonstate and State Societies Source: OutWorldInData.org, Barclays Violent Deaths per 100,000 People per Year

  19. Investing myths

  20. Cyclically adjusted PE Source: FactSet, Barclays

  21. Gold as a safe-haven asset? (Part I) Source: Datastream, Barclays

  22. Gold as a safe-haven asset? (Part II) Source: Datastream, Barclays

  23. “This is my long-run forecast in brief. The material conditions of life will continue to get better for most people, in most countries, most of the time, indefinitely. Within a century or two, all nations and most of humanity will be at or above today's Western living standards… … I also speculate, however, that many people will continue to think and say that the conditions of life are getting worse.” Julian Simon, “The State of Humanity” 24

  24. This document has been issued and approved by Barclays Bank PLC. Although information in this document has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent or warrant its accuracy, and such information may be incomplete or condensed. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instrument, which may be discussed in it. All estimates and opinions included in this document constitute our judgement as of the date of the document and may be subject to change without notice. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. The value of investments, and the income there from, can fall as well as rise and you may get back less than you invested. This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is confidential and is intended solely for the addressee(s). If you are not an addressee, or have received this document in error, please notify the sender immediately, delete it from your system and do not copy, disclose or otherwise act upon any part of this e-mail or its attachments. It may not be reproduced or disclosed (in whole or in part) to any other person without our prior written permission. Law or regulation in certain countries may restrict the manner of distribution of this document and persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves of and observe such restrictions. We or our affiliates may have acted upon or have made use of material in this document prior to its publication. You should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on your personal tax position from your own tax adviser. You have sole responsibility for the management of your tax and legal affairs including making any applicable filings and payments and complying with any applicable laws and regulations. We have not and will not provide you with tax or legal advice and recommend that you obtain your own independent tax and legal advice tailored to your individual circumstances. Barclays offers wealth and investment management products and services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Disclaimer 25

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