Application of Agent Technology for ENRON

1. Application of Agent Technologyfor ENRON Dr. Thomas E. Potok Collaborative Technologies Research Center Computer Science and Mathematics Division Oak Ridge National Laboratory

2. Intelligence Agent Team • Pioneering research in • Knowledge Fusion Systems • Intelligent Agent technology • Successfully developed systems for • Industry: Lockheed Martin • Government: The Department of Energy • Military: The Defense Logistics Agency and USPACOM • Approach • Small Entrepreneurial team of researchers and software developers • Focusing on key strengths of each

3. Future Technology Trend AGENTS Internet Telephone Face to Face

4. Successful Projects Supply Chain Management Agent System Manufacturing Emulation Agent System Collaborative Decision Support System • We have extensive expertise in agent development • Began working with agent technologies in 1980s Neural Nets for Recovery Boiler Control Neural Nets for Bankruptcy Prediction Neural Nets for Spring-back Prediction Collaborative Design System Neural Nets for Resistance. Spot Welding Neural Nets for Material Mix Optimization Genetic Algorithms for Chemical Synthesis • Over 10 successful projects within the last 5 years • Collaborations with leading agent experts Knowledge-based Systems - Manufacturing Advisors Knowledge-based Systems for Constructability Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments Knowledge-based Computer Systems Calibration 1985 1990 1995 2000

5. What are Agents? ...Software entities that assist people and act on their behalf ...Software “robots” Proactive detect changes in their environment and react to those in a timely manner by answering to events and initiating actions Traditional Software Object Goal-driven have a purpose and act in accordance with that purpose until it is fulfilled Behavior State Agent Technology Communicative able to interact and communicate with users and other agents Autonomous can have control over their own actions and be able to work and launch actions independent of the user or other actors Learning have the ability to learn from experiences in their environment

6. Simple Agent Example Agent, find me the book “War and Peace,” and I need it tomorrow Amazon 2 Days $18.50 Barnes and Nobel 1 Day $21.75 B. Dalton 1 Day $20.25 ... Order the book Does the agent understand buying books? Form a plan to buy the book Execute the plan Library 1 Day Free eBay 1 Day $12.50 Learn for next time

7. Oak Ridge Technology • MABES • Agent-based • Network Modeling • SURGE • Supply Chain • Optimization

8. Agent-based Network Modeling

9. Why Agents? • Simulation techniques are thorough, but can take hours to run • Mathematical methods can be very fast, but make broad assumptions • Both require extensive training and validation • Agents provide the capability to: • Bridge the gap between simulation and Mathematical methods • Easy to use and develop • Easy connection of other systems • Move from analysis to action

10. Agent Based Network Model • Simulation and analytic models • Control over local and global behavior • Easy to setup and adapt From deployed MABES agent-based network model

11. Vision • Agents that provide the ability to: • conduct business from the desktop • connecting to resources across town and across the country

12. Agent-based Supply Chain Optimization

13. Process Overview Projected or Actual Parts Need Group Parts Form Lean Cells Optimize Cells

14. SURGE Grouping Agents Part Families Agent Group Themselves Agent Mediator Parts represented by Agents

15. Results on C-130 Parts Input Data Grouping Results Group 1 Group 5 Group 2 Group 4 Group 3

16. C130 Grouping Results Common Processes Group “3” Processes Group “5” Processes Why are extrusions spread over two groups?

17. Results Cell 1 Group 2 Group 1 Group 2 Group 3 Cell 2 Group 1 Group 3 Cell 3 Wire Harness Data forms 3 groups Possible cell layout

18. SURGE 1st Phase Results • Investment • Initial investment $3.3M • Agent investment $812K • 1st phase duration of 9 months • Return • 7,832 of ~130K spare parts grouped, 4400 Parts Bid • $7.0M savings in Inventory Reduction (30%) • $5.8M Savings in reduced pricing (23%) • 58% Reduction in lead times (from 220 to 93 days) • Total • $12.8M in total savings • Significant reduction in lead times Total Savings Agent Investment {

19. SURGE Summary • An advanced logistics optimization system • Significant research breakthroughs in clustering technology • Provides significant savings and lead-time reductions to DLA

20. Cell Optimization Traditional Methods Consume Time and Effort Experts Management Technology Foreman Information Weeks or Months

21. Value of Agent Systems Fast Flexible Collaborative Experts Management Agent System Technology Foreman Minutes

22. MABES: Analytic Model Manufacturing Rules Minimization Throughput At 17 Planes Per month: - Machine utilization 85% - Cost is $65M - Span time is 48 Days Activity Metrics Process Metrics

23. MABES Summary • An advanced supply chain decision support system • Provides asset visibility into the logistics supply chain • Two patents filed on this technology • Deployed on the F-16 manufacturing line

24. Supply Chain Manufacturing Operations Market PARTNER SUPPLIER SUPPLIER SISTER DIVISION 3rd TIER SUPPLIER 2nd TIER SUPPLIER PARTNER FABRICATION -SUBASSEMBLY - FINAL - DELIVERY 1st TIERSUPPLIER How does a problem here affect operations here Killer app – Supply Chain Integration • NEEDED: • Fast, reliable, private networks • Flexible software agents in integrate suppliers

25. Supplier Scenario Palmtop or Cell-phone Hurricane Jim will disrupt Acme Extrusions Apex bolts Recommend activating Johnson bolts and extrusions as a backup Details Henderson Pins needs review Stock price has drop 23% in 2 days 7 Press reports possibly about: Extortion Federal indictment See press URL Recommend shifting pin production to Wilson Pins

26. Agent-based Solutions for Enron • MABES • Agent-based • Network Modeling • SURGE • Supply Chain • Optimization

27. Summary • We have expertise and experience with developing • Advanced agent-based systems • Collaborative decision support systems • We are pioneering in agent and information integration technologies • Proven track record of success