Political Psychology: Citizen Behaviors and Opinions

1. Political Psychology:Citizen Behaviors and Opinions Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

2. Program • Citizens’ political information • The heuristics model • The online model • The belief-sampling model

3. Citizens’ political information Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

4. Theoretical starting point • Traditional democratic theory asserts that a strong and healthy democracy requires an alert, attentive, informed, and reactive electorate.

5. Empirical reality • Most citizens are generally little informed about politics. • However, they are not completely ignorant nor severely misinformed.

6. Debates in the literature • The low level of information is undeniable. • Arguments rage over the capacity of citizens to develop quality opinions.

7. The heuristics model Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

8. The heuristics model • Citizens use affective and cognitive shortcuts that allow them to simplify political choices and to develop reasonable opinions. • Shortcuts are efficient because they require little information and generate reliable solutions to complex dilemmas.

9. Heterogeneity • The type of heuristics used varies by the level of political sophistication. • The reliance on affect is more likely among less sophisticated people. • The reliance on cognition is more likely among more sophisticated people.

10. Heterogeneity

11. Heuristics: Sniderman, Brody & Tetlock • ‘likability’ • ‘availability’ • ‘desert’

12. Heuristics: Lupia • California, 1988 • Referendum on the reform of the auto-insurance system • 5 technical and complex proposals

13. Heuristics: Lupia • Informational shortcut: People who know the identity of the referendum proposals’ sponsors should make the right choices.

14. Heuristics: Lupia

15. Weaknesses of the heuristics model Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

16. Do heuristics lead to the right choices? • partisan labels • ‘availability’ (SBT) • ‘likability’ (SBT) • ‘cue’ (Lupia)

17. Do heuristics lead to the right choices? Politics : • requires responses to difficult questions, • does not make the relevant information easily accessible, • does not encourage reflection and deliberation, • and rarely offers feedback.

18. Do heuristics lead to the right choices? Biases in political judgments : • Reliance on stereotypes   • Excess of confidence  •  Resistance to correction  • Influence of easy arguments • Biased interpretation of messages 

19. Biased interpretation of messages

20. Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk • Citizens are not very informed, but they also tend to bias and errors when they use this little amount of information.

21. Conclusion of Kuklinski and Quirk • Inferences based on long-term factors will tend to work well. • Inferences based on short-term factors will tend to be more problematic.

22. The online model Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

23. The online model • When the goal is to form an impression, one evaluates information when it is encountered and integrates it into a rolling judgment. • The information that contributed to the judgment is quickly forgotten. • When an opinion is expressed, it is this judgment that is recalled. • The judgment is constantly updated.

24. The online model • Experiment : • 2 fictitious candidates • Profile of their issue positions • Measures of impressions • Time delay • Measures of impressions & recall

25. The online model • Results : • Failing recall of information • Recall of information degrades rapidly • Recall of impressions remains stable • Recall weakly related to impressions • Messages more related to impressions

26. The online model

27. The online model

28. The online model • Criticisms : • Plausible? Convincing? • Existing impressions or reactions to party identification? • What is the measure of messages? • Actual vote models versus authors’ views versus authors’ model?

29. The belief-sampling model Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

30. Observations • There is a lot of instability in opinions over time. • There is a lot of instability in opinions related to variations in questionnaire construction. • People express opinions about fictional issues and fictional persons.

31. The belief-sampling model • Citizens do not possess preexisting opinions. • They hold a mix of partially coherent considerations. • When asked, they survey a sample of the most salient considerations, and chose a response on the spot.

32. The belief-sampling model • Consideration : reason to support one side of an issue • Axiom 1 : ambivalence • Axiom 2 : response • Axiom 3 : accessibility

33. Results • Signs of ambivalence among considerations (axiom 1). • Correlation between the balance of considerations and choice (axiom 2). • More interest and engagement leads to more accessible considerations (axiom 3).

34. Explanations of the observations • Instability of opinions • Questionnaire effects • Opinions on fictional issues and fictional people

35. Implications • People don’t have real opinions. • Opinion change is simply a modification of the mix of accessible considerations. • Persuasion comes from the manipulation of salient considerations.

36. Conclusion Lecture 5 Cognition 1: Three models of opinion formation

37. Conclusion • Which model is right ... ? • Heterogeneity ... ?