TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process Tools Part 3: The PRT An overview for TOC Experts

1. TOCICO CONFERENCE 2009 Fast Thinking Process ToolsPart 3: The PRTAn overview for TOC Experts Part 1 of 3 What to Change? Fast! Part 2 of 3 What to Change to? Fast! Part 3 of 3 How to Cause the Change? Fast! Why not complete a full TP analysis during this class? Presented By: James R. HoltProfessor, Washington State UniversityDate: June, 2009

2. We continue our Quest for Fast, Visual Thinking! • The Roles of the TP Tools • The CRT Confirms the Cause of the Problems • The EC finds a Breakthrough Solution • The FRT verifies the Direction and Value of the Solution • The NBR trims major, obvious problems • Now, the PRT overcomes the OBSTACLES in the way of Accepting the Solution • The TT (Transition Tree) outlines the Implementation

3. The Three Cloud Approach B1. CB. D1. D2 CD B3. D3. B2. A1. CA. A3. A2. CD’ D1’ CC. C1. D3’ C3. D2’ C2.

4. The Ice Cream Cone Base to CRT Region of Not D’ Region of Not D Conflict / Confusion There is pressure to do D D There is pressure to NOT do D Assumption D’ Assumption B C Assumption Assumption A Assumption

5. Regional UDE Map of a CRT NOT A • Using the Regional Map allows the CRT to Build up quickly • Shows what is missing • Allows a Thinking Process person to view the CRT and Scrutinize Quickly NOT C NOT B NOT D’ NOT D D D’ B C A

6. Fast Evaporating Cloud Table Arrow Assumptions Specific Injection AB AC BD CD’ D/D’ Selected Injection (Strategic Direction):

7. The Fast FRT Structural Regions DEs that show evidence A is achieved or is possible! DEs that show evidence B is (or will be) achieved A DE C DE DE B DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE DE Region of Less Conflict DE DEs that show evidence that the Conflict is reduced DEs that show evidence C is or can be achieved Inj. Inj. Inj. Inj. Strategic Injection

8. Improving the FRT with the NBR! Good Stuff! The Dark Side! UDE DE DE Focus Here DE Change (Injection of expected Future Reality

9. PRTs are GREAT! • Ambitious Target (Mission Impossible!) • Focus on Obstacles versus Specifications • But, there are SO MANY OBSTACLES! Really?

10. Dangerous Opportunity A Word About Obstacles • Blockage to flow • Stepping Stones • Exciting Opportunities

11. Source of Obstacles • Annoying things from Way Back that haven’t been addressed • When finally addressed, creates great Buy-In • Allowing a person to overcome even one obstacle is empowering! • New Challenges that We are Not Ready for. • When Groups challenge obstacles and succeed then TEAM WORK is achieved. • The PRT is much better, more effective, longer lasting than ‘walking on hot coals’ or ‘riding the Zip line’ at some motivational event.

12. Effective PRT Uses • Committee Meeting • What is the Goal? What are the Obstacles? Assign Obstacles. Adjourn • ATT (Lucent) Project Manager: • Received Assignment • Assembled Team • Listed Obstacles • Asked for Volunteers to Overcome Obstacles • Assigned the rest of the Obstacles • Agreed on a general order • Meet in a week to re-status • Brought new Obstacles • Refined Sequence

13. A DE C DE DE B DE DE DE DE DE Inj. DE DE DE DE Inj. Region of Less Conflict Inj. DE Inj. Inj. Good Strategy Good Strategy Good Strategy Accepted Tactics Accepted Tactics Accepted Tactics New Measures New Measures New Policies New Policies Super Injection

14. Inj. Pick a Key (early) Injection Inj. Inj. Inj. Inj. Super Injection Where to start? Warning: The first injection will surface many (3-5 times) more obstacles than later injections Many of the obstacles will be associated with other injections and surface prematurely. That’s OK, keep them for later. Don’t try to surface obstacles to the Super Injection (there are too many and they are unstructured)

15. Brainstrom Free for all Nothing rejected Non-Attribution More is Better Ideas feed upon each other Ideas come in spurts Best come last PRT Not to worry about Intermediate Objectives (IOs) yet Attribute to person exposed Many related (subsets) Scrutinized (reject some) Biggest come first The Approach: Brainstorm vs. PRT

16. Later STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP Earlier Looking for Blockage to the Injection Injection

17. Surface the Obstacles • “Why Can’t We Have …<Injection>?” • “What Keeps Us From …<Injection>?” • “Why Don’t We Already Have …<Injection>?” • “Why Don’t We Just …<Injection>?” • Looking at these questions, the answer always starts with, “Because …” • Sort of looks like Assumptions • And, we know what to do with assumptions.

18. There are Obvious Obstacles • The Obvious Obstacles surface quickly • Are they enough (Sufficient to warn us of major problems in the future)? • No. Hardly ever enough obstacles. • We need to LOOK for serious things: • Internal Resources (people, equipment, funding) • Knowledge, Skills, Understanding • Timing • External Support • Policies and Measurements (should have surfaced in the FRT but may not) • Technology

19. IO IO IO IO IO Intermediate Objectives • Targets Down Stream • Mile Markers of our progress

20. To be Fast at PRTs Review the Obstacles. Do they really exist? (Entity Existence Reservation - Predicted Effect shows they do exist) Are they associated with this Injection? (If not, may need to pull aside to allow creative juices to flow) Is it necessary to overcome this Obstacle? (May ignore it) • Obstacles (things that prevent us from achieving our Injection) • Our workload is full • There is no cooperation • No money • Schedule is too tight We want to be quick, but not too quick. The PRT can catch many of the NBRs we possibly missed in the FRT. And remember, a missed NBR is always TROUBLE!

21. The work currently assigned consumes 90% of our capacity • The testing group will not adjust their schedule to accommodate our changed schedule • This work was not identified during the budgeting cycle. • There is not enough time from now until the required completion date to achieve all the tasks required in precedence order Rewording Obstacles (Assumptions in Necessary Based Logic) • Obstacles (things that prevent us from achieving our Injection) • Our workload is full • There is no cooperation • No money • Schedule is too tight The PRT is a Necessary Based Logic Tree. Remember, Obstacles are assumptions. They need to be specifically stated assumptions that we can evaporate. Rewrite Generalities into specifics.

22. Fast PRTs - Getting IOs • Intermediate Objectives (conditions that, when in place, eliminate the obstacle) • Obstacles (things that prevent us from achieving our Injection) • The work currently assigned consumes 90% of our capacity • The testing group will not adjust their schedule to accommodate our changed schedule • This work was not identified during the budgeting cycle • There is not enough time from now until the required completion date to achieve all the tasks required in precedence order -Don’t get depressed. -Each IO should be much easier to find when reworded as an attackable assumption.-The person who surfaced the Obstacle probably knows the IO.-Revisit the FRT looking for Intuition.-One Minute Rule! If haven’t found an IO in one minute, write the direct opposite and press on.-Revisit the IO List. If too many direct opposites, write clouds for each.

23. Fast PRTs - Getting IOs • Intermediate Objectives (conditions that, when in place, eliminate the obstacle) • Our current workload is reduced • We hit an available window in the testing group’s schedule • We have ‘out-of-cycle’ funding support • We have a shorter project • Obstacles (things that prevent us from achieving our Injection) • The work currently assigned consumes 90% of our capacity • The testing group will not adjust their schedule to accommodate our changed schedule • This work was not identified during the budgeting cycle • There is not enough time from now until the required completion date to achieve all the tasks required in precedence order It looks so easy! If you don’t have an idea on how to do the IO, move it to an obstacle and find a deeper IO (more in a minute).

24. Time Sequencing • Establish a loose Precedence • “In order to have … I must have … first” • Before I can … I need …” • Arrange IOs in Time order sequence with associated obstacle • Scrutinize to challenge Precedence Assumptions. • With a big stack of IOs, write them on Post-it Notes, give some to each person, while everyone is standing, take turns placing one at a time on a Time Line (everyone watching). (Keep Obstacles, IOs, and person who suggested obstacle on the Post-it.)

25. STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP IO IO IO IO IO IO IO IO Which is better? Injection Injection Generally, neither of these structures will occur. There are almost always parallel IOs and serial IOs.

26. STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP STOP IO IO IO IO IO IO IO IO IO IO Well Formed PRT Injection Injection

27. Injection IO IO IO IO IO IO IO IO The IO Map

28. Project Management View of IO Map IO IO IO Injection IO IO IO IO IO

29. Critical Chain Identified Assigning Time and Resources highlights the longest Chain of Dependent events (with Resources considered) IO IO IO Injection IO IO IO IO IO

30. Latest Start Feeder Buffer Latest Start Feeder Buffer Latest Start Critical Chain Plan IO IO IO Scheduled Start IO Injection Project Buffer IO IO IO IO

31. STOP IO Transition Tree – Executing the PRT • The Intermediate Objective is a Target which bypasses the Obstacle • When all Targets of the PRT are achieved, the Injections of the FRT are in place and the Future occurs. In this new Future, all the UDEs of the CRT go away. • Hitting the Target takes Good Aim, the Transition Tree!

32. Action to take Need to be filled Working Assumption Traditional Transition Tree • The Transition Tree is the Action Plan showing:What is Needed.What the Action is.Why the Action will cause the new reality.What other elements of reality lead tothe next Need. The Next Need Establishing Sequence The Result (Objective)

33. STOP STOP Action Action Action Action Future Need IO Future Need Sequence Sequence Sequence Result (Objective) Result (Objective) Result (Objective) Action Action Action Need Need Need Working Assumption Working Assumption Working Assumption Creating New Reality • This five step ‘Pine Tree’ shaped approach is a perfect communication tree. • It’s a Time Line of Actions to hit the Target!

34. STOP Creating New Reality • This five step ‘Pine Tree’ shaped approach is a perfect communication tree. • It’s a Time Line of Actions to hit the Target! Often, it’s easiest to just list the proposed actions. Then to add the logic in the Transition Tree as needed. It’s a detailed Task Plan that needs minimal documentation (just for the implementer) Action Action Action Action Graphic from Eli Goldratt’s 20 July 2001 Letter to all.

35. To Get Past the Obstacle, the IO Must Be Achieved. STOP • Sometimes there is a LONG Arrow between Current Reality and the next Desired IO • How do you MAGICALLY make the connection? • IOs are pretty high level makers (milestones). • The Transition Tree is full of detail about how to make the “transition”. • But How? IO STOP IO

36. STOP Filling the Gap! Some Whopper Intermediate Objective from the PRT • The long arrow between the current reality and the IO may be daunting when taken as a major step. • The trick is to get there by logical steps that avoid to much wasted effort. • That is an ambitious task. • Hum? Ambitious Task! I know how to do that! Current (or some point in) Reality

37. STOP Practice Closing the Gap with a Mini PRT Later IO We have complete acceptance/approval from the Financial Staff • What are the obstacles (characteristics) that define the achievement of the IO?-Evidence of short pay back-Few Risks of cost over run-Funds available -Complimentary with other work/policies/strategies Finance won’t buy it! Coincides with strategy Returned funds from our other killed project We have excellent buffer management planned These Actions (Mini IOs) then become the Tasks we can put our hands around to climb the ladder. We have a nice business case We have a plan Early IO

38. Fast TT IO • The Transition Tree outlines the minimal needed actions (and their order) in achieving the result. • It’s a checklist for the Implementer. • Provide only as much of the logic as needed justify the action and sequence. Sequence Result (Objective) Action Need Working Assumption Need Sequence Result (Objective) Action Need Working Assumption Need Sequence Result (Objective) Action Need Working Assumption

39. Need IO Need Sequence Sequence Sequence Result (Objective) Result (Objective) Result (Objective) Action Action Action Need Need Need Working Assumption Working Assumption Working Assumption The Traditional Transition Tree • However, it is somewhat hard to create. • Doesn’t the NEED cause the Action? • While I prefer to “Decide/Choose the Action I will take in face of a Need,” there is another approach.

40. STOP Action Need Another Acceptable Approach One of the causes to take a certain Action is The Need to do so. If there is no need for the action, then we would not take the action. So, we may mark the “Need” entity as a cause for the “Action” entity

41. STOP Action The Need Appropriate reasons to take the action Working Assumption Include Sufficiency Logic • Why is the Action the right effect from the Need? • The situation must be ready for the action to be taken (the Appropriate Conditions come as a result of some previous action) Graphic from Eli Goldratt’s 20 July 2001 Letter to all.

42. 3rd Action Need Appropriate conditions to take the action Working Assumption 2nd Action Need Working Assumption Appropriate conditions to take the action 1st Action Need Appropriate conditions to take the action Working Assumption • Actions to answer one Need leads to new conditions • The new condition sets the stage (appropriate conditions) for the next Need. Graphic from Eli Goldratt’s 20 July 2001 Letter to all.

43. Old Reality New Reality Change 3rd Action Need Appropriate reasons to take the action Working Assumption 2nd Action Need Working Assumption Appropriate reasons to take the action 1st Action Need Appropriate reasons to take the action Working Assumption Either way, Check for Negative Branches • Any change in reality grates against against existing reality (tends not to fit in immediately) • Actions in the Transition Tree, like Injections to the FRT can lead to Negative Branches. • Trim NBRs as in the FRT Trimming Action Graphic from Eli Goldratt’s 20 July 2001 Letter to all.

44. An ‘OR’ Branch in the TT • Sometimes, there are two tracks to take depending upon the situation (New Appropriate reasons) Its not a good time to disturb my dad right now. (New Appropriate Reasons) I know I can speak to my dad right now Dad will reply Sometimes Dad is concentrating on something Sometimes even when Dad looks busy, he is available Action I ask, “Dad, can I talk to you?” Appropriate reasons to take the action Working Assumption Need

45. Which Brings Us to Another Interesting Construct! Local optima Global optima There may not be an immediate benefit for me There may be an immediate benefit to me The underlying principles of TOC (see The Choice), should guide the TOC Expert to the Global Optima Side. I decide to choose global optima I decide local optima Current Reality necessitating a decision Arguments to choose local optima Arguments to choose global optima

46. Overview: Populate the Project PRT with the Transition Trees STOP IO IO INJ IO STOP STOP AssemBuffer Complete STOP STOP Project Buffer IO IO STOP AssemBuffer IO STOP STOP IO INJ IO AssemBuffer OK, so it takes more than an hour to write all the TT tasks. But, YOU CAN DO IT! STOP STOP IO Keep Thinking! Dr Holt IO

47. About James Holt Dr. James R. Holt, is a Clinical Professor of Engineering Management at Washington State University focusing on the delivery of the best management technologies.. Dr. Holt has taught at the graduate level 18 years and has advised 85 engineering student theses and dissertations on a wide variety of topics. Dr. Holt is certified in the TOC Thinking Process, TOC Operations Management, TOC Project Management and TOC Holistic Strategy by the Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization and serves as Chairman of the Board, TOCICO (Theory of Constraints International Certification Organization). He is happily married to Suzanne for 38 years; they have five children and nine grandchildren. www.vancouver.wsu.edu/fac/holt/ [Color Photo of Presenter]