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My Premises

My Premises. It was a cardinal mistake to introduce the Euro as widely as it was – but the Euro itself was not. It is too late to turn back in midstream . The credibility of a monetary union requires that it not be decided over the heads of the people.

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My Premises

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  1. My Premises • It was a cardinal mistake to introduce the Euro as widely as it was – but the Euro itself was not. • It is too late to turn back in midstream. • The credibility of a monetary union requires that it not be decided over the heads of the people. • The long-run future of the Euro relies on a renaissance of the national No-Bailout-Principle • Return from fiscal to monetary dominance • To get there, the ECB’s hand must be strengthened in the long run. How to do this? Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

  2. What will the ECB look like in 2023? • Weighty decisions will or will not be taken in the next 12-24 months, everywhere in Europe. • OMT is a side-show compared with the LTRO and its refinancing due in 2015-6 • Questions of collateral haircuts for rediscounting have not been resolved and are highly political • So are bailouts and bank resolution • The banking union raises even more questions involving the long-run viability of the ECB Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

  3. The ECB must be reformed • To restore monetary dominance in the long-run the credibility problem must be solved. • It is a question of political economy. Who wants No-Bailout? Is there a coalition for this position? Do other countries want fiscal union? • The ECB’s hand must be strengthened vis-à-vis the national governments. • How to do this credibly? • Eliminate national central banks as a lobby for national interests: Redesigning the ECB! Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

  4. The ECB redrawn Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

  5. The Fed in 1913 Quelle: Decision of the Reserve Bank Organization Committee Determining The Federal Reserve Districts and the Location of Federal Reserve Banks under Federal Reserve Act approved December 23, 1913 Washington: Government Printing Office (1914) Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

  6. The Fed in 2013 Quelle: Fiscal and Monetary Implications of OMT

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