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- Session #10

HSM Applications to Multilane Urban Suburban Multilane Intersections. Exercise IV – Prediction of Crash Frequency Performance for Urban/Suburban Multilane Street and Intersection and Comparison to Substantive Safety Performance. - Session #10.

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- Session #10

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  1. HSM Applications to Multilane Urban Suburban Multilane Intersections Exercise IV – Prediction of Crash Frequency Performance for Urban/Suburban Multilane Street and Intersection and Comparison to Substantive Safety Performance - Session #10

  2. Apply Urban/Suburban Multilane Crash Frequency Prediction model and CMFs • Apply Urban/Suburban Multilane Intersection Crash Frequency Prediction model and CMFs • Compare predicted Crash Frequency performance to actual safety performance Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Learning Outcomes:

  3. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn IL 64, DuPage County, Illinois: IL Route 64, an east-west state highway initiates at Lake Michigan in the City of Chicago and terminates at the Mississippi River at the west border of Illinois. In DuPage County, 1987 population of 780,000, IL Route 64 is known as North Avenue traversing the cities of Elmhurst and Villa Park and through rural unincorporated areas west to St. Charles Illinois in Kane County. IL Route 64 was improved to 4 lanes in the 1960’s throughout this length with intersection improvements at major crossroads such as other state routes and county routes consisting of left turn lanes and traffic signal control during the 1960’s and 1970’s.

  4. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Study Section: Length of Section = 0.97 miles AADT = 37,000 vpd No Horizontal Curves; 2.8% vertical curve west of Shopping Center for 0.35 mi Driveways: Residential driveways (minor) 7 Minor commercial driveways (< 50 parking spaces) 7 Major commercial driveways (> 50 parking spaces) 11 Total # of Driveways 25

  5. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Unsignalized T- Intersections w/o left turn lanes: Mildred 700 AADT Virginia 700 AADT Bernice 700 AADT Western 700 AADT Pearl 1,500 AADT Diane 700 AADT Evergreen 700 AADT Amy 700 AADT Newton 700 AADT Signalized 4-Approach Intersections with left turn lanes: Bloomingdale Road 16,100 AADT Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT

  6. Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Intersections:Total Injury Day Night Mildred 9 2 6 3 Virginia 12 3 9 3 Bernice 16 3 11 5 Western 11 4 7 4 Pearl 22 6 16 6 Diane 16 5 11 5 Evergreen 11 4 7 4 Amy 7 4 4 3 Newton 12 5 8 4 Bloomingdale Rd 170 68 122 48 Shopping Center 18 5 13 5 Main St-Glen Ellyn 146 45 100 46 Totals: 450 154 314 136

  7. Glenn Ellyn Street 0.97 miles Main Street – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  8. Exercise IV– IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Study Section: Crash data for 1986, 1987, 1988 – 3 years Total Injury Crashes Crashes Day Night Rdwy Segment 84 26 57 27 12 Intersections 450 154 314 136 Totals: 534 180 371 163

  9. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Proposed Design Cross-Section: 6 12-foot wide lanes with 42 foot wide curbed and landscaped median dividing the opposing directions of travel 12 foot wide paved shoulders 12 foot wide left turn lanes at all major intersections + 2 side street intersections Total number of Unsignalized Intersections with left turn lanes Pearl + Evergreen 2 Total number of Unsignalized Intersections with no median opening nor turn lanes 7 Mildred Av Diane Av Virginia Av Bernice Av Amy Av Western Ave Newton Ave

  10. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Proposed Design Cross-Section: • Highway illumination on both sides at 200 foot spacing of 400watt HPS on 40 foot mounting height on breakaway poles; Utility poles relocated out of clear zone; Parking is prohibited • Signalized Intersections: • Bloomingdale Road (150 peds/day) 16,100 AADT • 150 pedestrians per day • three 12’ lanes + 12’ shoulder each direction/right turn lane + double left turn lanes = 1+3+2+3+1 = 10 lanes • 1 alcohol sales within 1,000 ft • 1 bus stop within 1,000 ft • Shopping Center (north and south) 2,400 AADT • Main Street-Glen Ellyn 16,700 AADT

  11. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency and Apply CMFs for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Base Model Multiple Vehicle Non-Driveway • Base Model Single Vehicle Non-Driveway • Driveway Related Crashes • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, and Lighting • Predicted Crashes with CMF’s Applied • Pedestrian Crashes • Bicycle Crashes • Total Predicted Crashes for Segment

  12. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn 1.i. From the analysis of Crash Frequency, answer the following question: • Is the actual Crash Frequency performance for the geometrics for IL 64 (Driveways, parking, and lighting) less than the Predicted Crash Frequency? Substantive Safety Performance = ? Predicted Crash Frequency = ? Substantive Safety Performance less than Predicted Crash Frequency YES/NO

  13. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • Base Model for Multiple Vehicle collisions • Base Model for Single Vehicle collisions • CMF’s for left turn lanes + lt tn phasing + right turn lanes + No Tn on Red + Lighting + spd enf • Predicted Crashes with CMF’s Applied • Predicted Crashes for Peds and Bikes • Total Predicted Crashes for Intersection • Combined Roadway & Intersection Crashes

  14. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Procedure for crash frequency prediction for a roadway segment: Combine base models, CMFs, and calibration factor • Npredicted rs = (Nbr + Npedr + Nbiker) Cr • Nbr = Nspf rs (CMF1r x CMF2r x … CMFnr) • Nspf rs = Nbrmv + Nbrsv + Nbrdwy • Use Worksheet Exercise IV

  15. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Base Model Multiple Vehicle Non-Driveway Nbrmv = exp(a + b ln(AADT) + ln(L)) = exp(-12.34 + 1.36 ln(37000) + ln(0.97)) = exp(1.935) = 6.9 crashes per year

  16. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Base Model Single Vehicle Non-Driveway Nbrsv = exp(a + b ln(AADT) + ln(L)) = exp(-5.05 + 0.47 ln(37000) + ln(0.97)) = exp(-0.137) = 0.9 crashes per year

  17. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Driveway Related Crashes Nbrdwy = SUM (nj Nj (AADT/15,000)t ) = 11 x 0.033 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 7 x 0.011 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 0 x 0.036 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 0 x 0.005 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 0 x 0.018 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 7 x 0.003 (37,000/15,000)1.106 + 0 x 0.005 (37,000/15,000)1.106 = 1.30 crashes per year

  18. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Sum of Base Model Crashes - Nbr Nspf rs = NMulitiple Vehicle (non-driveway) + NSingle Vehicle (non-driveway) + Nbrdwy = 6.9 + 0.9 + 1.3 = 9.1 crashes per year

  19. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, Traversable Median, Lighting, and spd enfor CMF1r = 1 + Ppk* (fpk -1.0) Where parking is prohibited, Ppk is zero = 1 + zero* (fpk -1.0) = 1 + 0.00 = 1.00

  20. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, Traversable Median, Lighting, and spd enforc CMF2r = foffset x Dfo x pfo + (1 – pfo) For street lighting poles at 200 foot spacing two sides located 18 ft from travel lane, foffset = 0.0614 pfo =0.036 = 0.0614x 2 x 5280/200 x 0.036 + (1 – 0.036) = 1.081

  21. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, Median Width (Traversible median wo barrier), Lighting From Table 12-22: 42 ft curbed and landscaped median CMF3r = 0.970

  22. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, Traversable Median, Lighting, and spd enforc Addition of lighting means CMF is less than 1.000 CMF4r = 1- (pnr x (1.0 – 0.72 pinr – 0.83 ppnr )) = 1- (0.410 x (1.0 – 0.72(0.364) – 0.83(0.636))) = 0.914

  23. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • CMF’s for Parking, Roadside Objects, Median Width (Traversible median wo barrier), Lighting, and Automated Speed Enforcement CMF5r is 1.00 for no automated speed enforcement = 1.00

  24. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Predicted Crashes with CMF’s Applied Nbr = Nspf rs (CMF1r x CMF2r x . . . CMFnr) Nbr = 9.1 x (1.000 x 1.081 x 0.970 x 0.914 x 1.00) = 8.7 crashes per year

  25. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Pedestrian Crashes (Posted Speed > 30 mph) • (Table 12-8) Npedr = Nbr x fpedr for 4D,fpedr = 0.019 = 8.7 x 0.019 = 0.16 crashes per year

  26. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Bicycle Crashes (Posted Speed > 30 mph) • (Table 12-9) Nbiker = Nbr x fbiker for 4D,fbiker = 0.005 = 8.7 x 0.005 = 0.05 crashes per year

  27. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the segment using the Suburban Multilane Divided model (4D) for the following: • Total Predicted Crashes for Segment Nrs = Nbr + Npedr + Nbiker = 8.7 + 0.16 + 0.05 = 8.9 crashes per year

  28. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn 1.I From the analysis of Crash Frequency, answer the following question: • Is the actual Crash Frequency for the geometrics for IL 64 (Driveways, parking, and lighting) less than the Predicted Crash Frequency? Substantive Safety Performance = 84/3 = 28 Predicted Crash Frequency = 8.9 crashes/yr Substantive Safety Performance less than Predicted Crash Frequency No

  29. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • Base Model for Multiple Vehicle collisions • Base Model for Single Vehicle collisions • CMF’s for left turn lanes + lt tn phasing + right turn lanes + No Tn on Red + Lighting + spd enf • Predicted Crashes with CMF’s Applied • Predicted Crashes for Peds and Bikes • Total Predicted Crashes for Intersection

  30. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Procedure for crash frequency prediction for At- Grade Intersections: Combine base models, CMFs, and calibration factor • Nint = (Nbi + Npedi + Nbikei) Ci • Nbi = Nspf int (CMF1i x CMF2i x …. CMFni) • Nspf int = Nbimv + Nbisv

  31. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • Base Model for Multiple Vehicle collisions: • (Table 12-10) Nbimv = exp(-10.99 + 1.07ln(37,000)) + 0.23ln(16,100) = exp(-10.99 + 11.25 + 2.228) = exp(2.488) = 12.1 crashes per year

  32. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • Base Model for Single Vehicle collisions: • (Table 12-12) Nbisv = exp(-10.21 + 0.68ln(37,000)) + 0.27ln(16,100) = exp(-10.21 + 7.15 + 2.62) = exp(-0.44) = 0.64 crashes per year

  33. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): Nspf int = Nbimv + Nbisv = 12.10 + 0.64 = 12.74 crashes per year

  34. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • CMF’s for double left turn lanes +protected Lt Tn phasing + right turn lane + Rt Tn on Red + Lighting + Red Light Camera Automated Enforce CMFlt tn ln = 0.66 CMFprotected turn = 0.944 = 0.78 CMFno turn on red = 1.00 CMFrt tn ln = 0.85 CMFred light camera = 1.00 CMFlighting = 0.9107

  35. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): • Predicted Crashes with CMF’s Applied Nbi = Nspf int(CMFlttnln x CMFprot lt x CMFrttnln x CMFno tn redx CMFlighting x CMFcameras) = 12.74 (0.66 x 0.78 x 0.85 x 1.00 x 0.9107 x 1.00) = 5.08 crashes per year

  36. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • Predict the Crash Frequency for the Proposed Intersection Design for Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 using the Urban model (4SG): Pedestrians • 150 pedstrians, max number of lanes crossed = 10, 1 bus stop, 0 school, 1 Alcohol (Tables 12-28, 12-29, & 12-30) • a, b, c, d, & e coefficients from Table 12-14 Npedbase = exp [a + b ln(ADTtot) + c ln(ADTmin/ADTmaj) + d ln(PedVol) + e (nlanesx)] = exp [-9.53 + 0.40ln(37,000+16,100) + 0.26ln(16,100/37,000) + 0.45ln(150) + 0.04(10)] = 0.065

  37. Crash Frequency Prediction for Veh-Ped Collisions at an Urban Multilane Intersection: • e. Four-Leg Signalized Intersection: (Ped & Bike crashes) • 37,000 AADT and 16,100 AADT • Pedestrian Volume = 150 peds/day • 10 Lanes • One Bus Stop in NE Quadrant • One Convenient Store in SE Quadrant that sales alcohol From previous slide Npedbase = 0.065 crashes per year Npedi = Npedbase (CMF1p x CMF2p x CMF3p) Npedi = 0.065 (2.78 x 1.00 x 1.12) = 0.201 crashes per year

  38. Crash Frequency Prediction for Vehicle-Bicycle Collisions at an Urban/Suburban Intersection: • e. Four-Leg Signalized Intersection: (Ped & Bike crashes) • 37,000 AADT and 16,100 AADT • Pedestrian Volume = 150 peds/day • 10 Lanes • One Bus Stop in NE Quadrant • One Convenient Store in SE Quadrant that sales alcohol Nbi = 5.08 crashes per year For 4SG: fbikei = 0.015 Nbikei = Nbi x fbikei Nbikei = 5.08 x 0.015 = 0.076 crashes per year

  39. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn • e. Four-Leg Signalized Intersection: • 37,000 AADT and 16,100 AADT • left and right turn lanes on all approaches • protected left turn phasing all approaches • lighting f. Total predicted crashes for Intersections: Nint = (Nbi + Npedi + Nbikei) Ci = (5.08 + 0.201 + 0.076) x 1.0 = 5.36 crashes per year

  40. Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn From the Crash Prediction analysis, perform the following: • 2.I Is the Predicted Crash Frequency performance for the intersection of Bloomingdale Road at IL 64 safer than the Substantive Safety Performance value? Substantive Safety Performance = 170/3 = 56.7/ yr Predicted Crash Frequency = 5.36 crashes/yr Substantive Safety less than Predicted Crash Frequency NO

  41. Highway Safety Manual • Important HSM Tools: • HSM Spreadsheets • Facilitates HSM calculations • Developed by Oregon State University • http://safetyperformance.org/resources/nchrp-17-38/ • HSM User Discussion Forum • Submit questions/concerns to HSM Panel members for answers • http://www.highwaysafetymanual.org/Pages/default.aspx

  42. Applied Urban/Suburban Multilane Crash Frequency Prediction model and CMFs • Applied Urban/Suburban Multilane Intersection Crash Frequency Prediction model and CMFs • Compared predicted safety performance to actual safety performance Exercise IV – IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn Learning Outcomes:

  43. Predicting Crash Frequency for Suburban/Urban Multilane Intersections Questions and Discussion:

  44. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  45. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  46. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  47. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  48. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

  49. IL 64 North Avenue from Bloomingdale Road to Main Street-Glen Ellyn

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