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Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook

Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook. Matt Hourihan October 9, 2013 for the Science Diplomats Club AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Program http://www.aaas.org/spp/rd. Emergent Budget Tendencies. Discretionary spending tends to be constrained… Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan

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Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook

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  1. Federal R&D: Overview, Update and Outlook Matt Hourihan October 9, 2013 for the Science Diplomats Club AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/spp/rd

  2. Emergent Budget Tendencies • Discretionary spending tends to be constrained… • Early 1980s: nondefense constraints under Reagan • Late 1980s/early 1990s: spending caps • 2011 Budget Control Act caps • While mandatory spending tends to grow • Health care costs • Expanding beneficiaries, aging population • Medicare Part D, Affordable Care Act… • …versus failed efforts at control/constraint/reform • And, of course, anti-tax politics

  3. *Keep in mind… • Department of Defense technology development activities have declined a little more than everything else

  4. Enter FY 2014: Admin R&D Priorities • Clear shift from D to R • And from Defense to Nondefense • Science + Innovation • COMPETES Agencies • Advanced Manufacturing • Translational Medicine • Clean Energy + Environment • Defense technology cuts • STEM education

  5. The biggie for R&D: Returning discretionary spending to pre-sequester levels • Every agency would receive major increases above FY13

  6. Approps: What Have We Learned? • Everybody still mostly likes science and innovation funding… • Though to varying degrees • But again, fiscal politics trumps all

  7. Current Politics: The “Pong” Model? Cut nondefense spending! Raise revenues! Obviously, a very facile oversimplification…! The science and innovation budget

  8. Some concluding thoughts… • If increasing aggregate R&D is the goal… • Should the sci & innovation community take broader fiscal view? • Science as % of discretionary? Discretionary as % of total? • Social spending is popular. Responsible taxation is unpopular • How to grapple with tradeoffs • If we’re to ask more of the taxpayer: • Should science programs more directly tie to public outcomes? • Temporal problem: allocative spending and tax policy is about past & present, science and innovation spending is about future • The alternative: Glide along happy with what we’ve got?

  9. Notes about shutdown… • Intramural vs. extramural vs. contractors • i.e. ARS/NIH vs. universities vs. JPL • Impacts: radio telescopes; Antarctic station; meetings and symposia • Clock is ticking for some big-ticket items • A transient event, one hopes

  10. For more info… mhouriha@aaas.org 202-326-6607 www.aaas.org/spp/rd/

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