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Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment

Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment. Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010. Outline. Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds Implementation Plan Current Assessment Current Actions Comparison to Last Assessment. Minimum Adequacy Thresholds.

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Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment

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  1. Pacific NorthwestResource Adequacy Assessment Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010

  2. Outline • Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds • Implementation Plan • Current Assessment • Current Actions • Comparison to Last Assessment

  3. Minimum Adequacy Thresholds • Energy – Annual Load/Resource Balance* • Physical = 0 MWa • Economic = ??? • Capacity – Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin* • Physical Winter = 23% • Physical Summer = 24% • Economic = ??? *As defined in the Adequacy Standard

  4. Implementation Plan • Green Status • Proceed with normal planning activities • Compare results with other regional reports • Yellow Alert • Regional report • Forum review of data and assumptions • Red Alert • Regional conference • Regional review of data and assumptions • Identify inadequate utilities

  5. Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ> Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ>Phys 5 Years Out < Phys

  6. Annual Energy Load/Resource Balance

  7. January Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin

  8. July Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin

  9. Assessing the Adequacy Status(Year when threshold is violated) • Energy 2027 • January Capacity 2030 • July Capacity 2015

  10. Assessing Adequacy Status > Econ < Econ> Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ>Phys 5 Years Out < Phys July Capacity Violation 5 Years Out = Yellow Alert

  11. Current Actions • RPS legislation is pushing wind development • Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition • Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2029 (on average) • Forum will review data and methodology

  12. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentAnnualEnergy

  13. Annual Energy Assumptions5-Years Out

  14. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentJanuaryCapacity

  15. January Sustained-Peak Assumptions5-Years Out

  16. 2010 vs. 2008 AssessmentJulyCapacity

  17. July Sustained-Peak Assumptions5-Years Out

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