Regional Forecast Support by METEO-FRANCE MARTINIQUE in SWFDP Antilles

1. SWFDP in the Antilles (RA IV) Potential engagement of METEOFRANCE MARTINIQUE as a Regional Forecast Support Facility (RFSF) Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane SWFDP / APPORTS project manager RSMT meeting, Martinique 13-15 December 2016

2. Plan • Background • Role and workplan of Meteo-France as a RFSF • Other considerations

3. PRE-EXISTING FACILITIES An existing Meteo-France regional forecast office • Located in Martinique • Significant experience in synoptic analysis and regional guidance - Coordination mechanism between Martinique - Guadeloupe- French Guiana, especially for severe weather threat (MHEWS = « Vigilance system ») • Specific product for severe weather in the Antilles for the « French Regional Emergency Management Institution » (EMIZA, counterpart of CDEMA for the French territories)

4. PWS General Public and spec. users (Agriculture, Fisheries, Marine Safety, Aviation, etc.) SYNTHETIC VISION OF THE ROLE OF THE RFSFC RFSFC = Regional and operational interface in a cascading system between Global Centers and NMHSs, providing guidance for severe weather Flash Flood Guidance System Other integrated systems Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) Feedback and Verification SMS; Weather Radio Systems; Public Web; etc. General Public Global and Regional NWP/EPS products National Met Centres (Forecast D / D+5; Bulletins) Regional Centre (RFSFC) Radio; TV E-mail; etc. Global Centres Media Guidance Products (and coordination) RSMCs-TC Disaster Management and Civil Protection Specific Communication Systems TC WIGOS, WIS WWRP GDPFS WMO SP Research Projects Observing and information systems Satellite Imagery and Tools (From WMO/ SWFDP)

5. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE 1 Develop and run a web-based operational platform (upgrade of the Extranet SHERPA), as per Members’ specifications, for access and sharing of information :  Regional and local observations (Synoptic station, local AWS, buoys/waveriders, radar products, satellite images, …)  NWP (deterministic and probabilistic) from participating global centers (ECMWF, METEO-FRANCE, NCEP, CANADA, UKMET, CIMH, ???)  Severe weather guidance products and graphical analysis from the RFSFC  Tropical cyclone products from RSMC Miami (links ?) Access to SHERPA : www.meteo.fr/extranets ( User/pwd protected)

6. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Basic operational role of the RFSF for guidance as seen by MeteoFrance  Issuing regular regional guidance productions based on human expertise over the SWFDP AoR (Area of Responsability). Human expertise of all available products and productions of regional guidance for severe weather in the SWFDP domain on a routine basis * for example : the next 24-48 hours (?) + outlook up to 3-5 days (?), graphics and table (?) 2

7. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE Basic operational role of the RFSF for guidance as seen by MeteoFrance  Issuing regular regional guidance productions based on human expertise over the SWFDP AoR (Area of Responsability). Human expertise of all available products and productions of regional guidance for severe weather in the SWFDP domain on a routine basis • example from SWFDP RA1 (Pretoria) http://rsmc.weathersa.co.za/index.php 2

8. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE • Insurance that each territory of the domain that is under a threat has been fully informed and is aware of • the type (heavy rain-thunderstorm / dangerous sea at coast / strong wind ) and the level ( to be determined) of the danger for the next 24 - 48 hours. A real time coordination mechanism (a crucial aspect !) needs to be established with a progressive power up  3 possibilities, from the easiest and most simple way to the top procedure(ex: RSMC Miami), depending on • Human resources • Capacities (language barrier …) • Tools for real-time exchange and discussion Level 1= Guidance products once or twice a day and acknowlegment (email / chat) from NHMS having territories under a threat. Level 2= Level 1 + possible real-time discussion between forecasters by chat/email + sharing of complementary graphics/maps/charts Level 3= Level 2 + phone call between RFSFC and each NHMS having territories under a threat Mandatory coordination between RFSFC and RSMC in case of tropical cyclone threat over the domain

9. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE 3 Define* complementarity activities/actions with CMO/CIMH (pre-identified as the SWFDP-Caribbean regional training center)  Initial training workshop  Routine (yearly) training and feedback workshop (forecasters and/or trainers)  Programme for exchange of forecasters  Required competencies ? * Based on specifications coming up from the region

10. POSSIBLE ROLE and WORKPLAN of METEO-FRANCE 4 Define* key areas of improvment (knowledges, capacities, tools, …)  R & D approach * Radar : calibration, quantification, downscaling per river basin, automated watches and warnings, … * Running and tuning regional / fine mesh models (atmospheric and waves)  Impact and consequences approach * Hydrological input / outpout ? ( use of FFGS ) * Marine submersion  NWP verification  etc. * Based on specifications coming up from the region

11. OTHER CONSIDERATIONS The implementation of complementary projects or/and activities will be essential to cover the whole chain of severe weather management, especially with regards to service delivery • Efficient MHEWS in place in each country / territory for hydro-meteorological risks * Need of a regional watch/warning system such as the one for TC in the RAIV? • Strengthening of observing networks and real-time data collection (including buoys/waveriders) * Running cost and maintenance ?  Implementation of harmonised dissemination tools ( CAP protocole ?)

12. MERCI ! THANK YOU VERY MUCH / MUCHAS GRACIAS MESI ANPIL / MERCI BEAUCOUP ! ! ! Jean-Noel DEGRACE Météo-France Antilles-Guyane