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Multi-parameter ocean model skill assessment: from regional (CMEMS IBI) to coastal scales

Multi-parameter ocean model skill assessment: from regional (CMEMS IBI) to coastal scales. P. Lorente , M.G. Sotillo , A. Amo-Baladrón, R. Aznar, A. Pascual y E. Álvarez-Fanjul. Puertos del Estado, Madrid. 1 - Purpose. 2 - Data. 3 - NARVAL. 4 - Skill. 5 - Conclusions. Objectives:.

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Multi-parameter ocean model skill assessment: from regional (CMEMS IBI) to coastal scales

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  1. Multi-parameter ocean model skill assessment: from regional (CMEMS IBI) to coastal scales P. Lorente , M.G. Sotillo , A. Amo-Baladrón, R. Aznar, A. Pascual y E. Álvarez-Fanjul Puertos del Estado, Madrid

  2. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions Objectives: Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems Tools to support decision-making EBRO-DELTA Skill assessment: essential! • Showcase one year-long (2014) multi-parameter skill assessment of IBI operational ocean forecasting system. • Specific subdomain in the NW Mediterranean: the Ebro Delta. Relevance: • In situ & remote-sensing networks • 1 harbour and a Marine Protected Area (Ebro Delta)

  3. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 -NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions IBI SYSTEM OBSERVATIONAL NETWORKS Iberia Biscay Ireland • Based on NEMO 3.4 • Daily product (PdE + MO) • 5 FC + 1 HC (TMP, SAL, SSH, Currents) • Surface: hourly data • Resolution 2x2 km • Regional system: 19ᵒW-5ᵒE / 26ᵒN-56ᵒN • Copernicus Marine Service (April 2011) • Buoys network (B1, B2 & B3) • Tide Gauges network (TG1, TG2, TG3 & TG4) • L3 Satellite-derived product (CMEMS) • CODAR Seasonde HF radar

  4. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems (OOFSs) Tools to support decision-making Skill assessment: essential! 1.- QUID (QUality Information Document) http://marine.copernicus.eu/documents/QUID/CMEMS-IBI-QUID-005-001.pdf 2.- CMEMS validation website (updated on a quarterly basis): http://marine.copernicus.eu/web/103-validation-statistics.php 3.- Research papers Aznar R., Sotillo M.G., Cailleau S., Lorente P., Levier B., Amo-Baladrón A., Reffray G., Álvarez-Fanjul E.: “Strengths and weaknesses of the Copernicus forecasted and reanalyzed solutions for the Iberia-Biscay-Ireland (IBI) waters”, Journal of Marine Systems, 159, pp. 1-14, 2016. Sotillo, M.G., Cailleau, S., Lorente, P., Levier, B., Aznar, R., Reffray, G., Amo-Baladrón, A., and Alvarez-Fanjul, E.: “The MyOcean IBI Ocean Forecast and Reanalysis Systems: Operational products and roadmap to the future Copernicus Service”. Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 8, Issue 1, pp. 1-18, 2015. NARVAL North Atlantic Regional VALidation

  5. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions North Atlantic Regional VALlidation • Skill assessment software package + dedicated web application • Routinely monitor IBI performance (strengths and weaknesses) • Real-time & delayed-mode validations • REGIONALIZATION (IBI area + 10 subdomains) • INTERCOMPARACION (overlapping areas) • DOWNSCALLING (SAMPA & SAMOAs)

  6. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-1 METRICS: 2D daily fields bilinearly interpolated into a common ore refined horizontal grid for the same geographic location • SST:

  7. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-1 METRICS: CurrentS SPRING 2014

  8. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-2 METRICS: comparison of model outputs with quality-controlled time series of in-situ observations at specific locations DDBB: long-term storage Georeferenced web interface Calendar web access: SKILL METRICS

  9. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • CLASS-2 METRICS: SUMMARY

  10. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • QUALITATIVE COMPARISONS: TRANSECTS SW Northcurrent Coastal reversals Reversals

  11. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • QUALITATIVE COMPARISONS: RELATIVE VORTICITY • Belt of positive vorticity • Coastal CW eddy (Negative vorticity) • By summer, the eddy dissapears - Change in predominat wind regime - Reduction in freshwater discharge

  12. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • DOWNSCALLING IN NARVAL: SAMPA & SAMOA (PRE-OPERATIONAL!)

  13. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions • NARVAL: Extensive validation of IBI forecasting system • Inherent constraints: sensor limitations, instrumental noise, differences in depth sampling, small-scale energetic processes unresolved by the model, etc. • IBI: regional "father" system used in dowscaling approaches by providing coherent OBCs to nested high-resolution coastal models. • Model intercomparison: IBI versus SAMPA / SAMOAs • NARVAL: ready to verify added value ofdownscaling approaches in coastal areas • Not only SAMPA & SAMOA in Ebro Delta: - Barcelona - Bilbao - Ferrol - Las Palmas - Tenerife - Etc… • Advent of new data sources: SMOS, drifters, gliders, etc…

  14. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions New Biogeochemical (BGQ) module integrated in NARVAL! Short-term future: Waves (WAV) module will be implemented! Clicking the button...

  15. 1 - Purpose 2 - Data 3 - NARVAL 4 - Skill 5 - Conclusions THIS PRESENTATION IS BASED ON THE FOLLOWING PAPER: Lorente P., Piedracoba S., Sotillo M.G., Aznar R., Amo-Balandron A., Pascual A., Soto-Navarro J., Alvarez-Fanjul E. “Ocean model skill assessment in the NW Mediterranean using multi-sensor data”. Journal of Operational Oceanography. Accepted (July 2016). Doi: 10.1080/1755876X.2016.1215224 END THANKS!

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