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Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems

Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems. Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland. Motivation. Unbridled expansion of human enterprise. Depletion of natural life support systems. Resource depletion -> global tensions. Interacting complex systems.

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Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems

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  1. Developing Understanding of Ecological Economic Systems Thomas Maxwell Robert Costanza University of Maryland Institute for Ecological Economics

  2. Motivation • Unbridled expansion of human enterprise. • Depletion of natural life support systems. • Resource depletion -> global tensions. • Interacting complex systems. • Tremendous uncertainty. • Potentially disastrous consequences. Institute for Ecological Economics

  3. Integrated Problem Solving • Vision • State of the world. • Possible future worlds (postitive & negative). • What to tweak? • Expected outcomes of policy adjustments. • Methodology • Hard problem science. • Adaptive management. Institute for Ecological Economics

  4. Science in Service of Society • Comprehensive systems approach • Conceptual pluralism • Problem driver • Multiscale • Integrated modeling • Links with policy • Modeling as consensus building tool • Communicating uncertainty Institute for Ecological Economics

  5. Collaborative (Visible) Modeling • Realistic models require multiple teams • Modelers typically not computer scientists • Stake holders must be included • Communication to a wide audience Institute for Ecological Economics

  6. Three Stage Modeling Process • Scoping models • Consensus building • Research models • Understanding dynamics • Management models • Exploring scenarios Institute for Ecological Economics

  7. Modeling Collaboratory • Constructivist learning. • Paradigm expansion. • (narrow,linear,static) -> • (broad,nonlinear,dynamic) • Conflict resolution. • Consensus building. • Collective decision making. • Develop management scenarios. Institute for Ecological Economics

  8. Supporting Collaborative Modeling • Graphical modeling tools • Modular model development • Transparent high performance computing • Integrated data access • Integrated visualization • Variety of formalisms and frames Institute for Ecological Economics

  9. Model viewed and manipulated graphically. • Opens model development to non-programmers. • Facilitates rapid development of models. • Enforces modeling standards. • Facilitates collaboration in model development. • Graphical representation serves as a blackboard. • Graphical Modeling Institute for Ecological Economics

  10. STELLA Model Institute for Ecological Economics

  11. Spatial Modeling Framework Institute for Ecological Economics

  12. Environmental Modeling Workbench Spatial Modeling Environment Inputs to multiple models Coupled Bio-Hydro Simulation Integrated wireless Sensor web CavernSoft Collaborative Environment Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

  13. Two types of modules • Ecological Modules • No general theory. • Primary focus on modeling. • Examples: • Macrophytes, Epiphytes, Consumers, Phytoplankton • Modules developed in Stella/SME. • Physical Modules • Theory well known (e.g. Navier Stokes). • Primary focus on computation. • Examples: • hydrodynamics, atmospheric dynamics. • Modules developed externally and linked to SME. Institute for Ecological Economics

  14. Collaborative Spatial Modeling Workbench • Includes integrated support for: • Icon-based unit module development • Module archiving and reuse • Integration of multiple spatial representations • Distributed computing • Web-based modeling & simulation • Configuration, control, and visualization of remote simulations. • Data access and visualization • Real-time links to other apps (e.g. Swarm). • Spatial Modeling Environment Institute for Ecological Economics

  15. Spatial Modeling Environment Module Repository Module Builder Simulation Driver Unit model Graphical modeling Spatial model HPC STELLA Code Generator PowerSim Module Constructor SME Module Editor Java Portal SMML Module Library Institute for Ecological Economics

  16. Declarative • Modular • Fully visible structure & dynamics • Supports encapsulation and specialization • Separate universal specs / site-specific configs • Platform and operating system independent • Facilitates extensive simulation services • Module Specification Language Institute for Ecological Economics

  17. XML-Based Declarative Language • Simulation Module Specification • Major Classes: • Module: Reusable component. • Variable: Simulation atomic object. • Action: Performs computation or data IO. • Event: Orders the execution of Actions. • Frame: Defines a spatial topology. • Simulation Module Markup Language Institute for Ecological Economics

  18. SMML Example <atom name="CONS_BIOM" id="CONS_BIOM" status="private" type="state" > <port type="input" name="CONS_INGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="input" name="CONS_RESPIRATION" /> <dynamic event="integrate" type="code" > <code> ( ( ( CONS_INGEST-CONS_EGEST )-CONS_MORT_BIOM ) ) CONS_RESPIRATION ) </code> </dynamic> <port type="input" name="P1_CONS_IC" /> <port type="input" name="CELL_SIZE" /> <dynamic event="init" type="code" > <doc> CARBON BIOMASS OF AN AGGREGATED CONSUMER. (KGC). CONSUMERS EXCLUDE THE MICRO ORGANISMS WHICH ARE ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE RESPIRATION FLUXES </doc> <code> ( ( P1_CONS_IC*0.001 )*CELL_SIZE ) </code> </dynamic> </atom> Institute for Ecological Economics

  19. SMML Example <?xml version="1.0"?> <!DOCTYPE compound SYSTEM "http://iee.umces.edu/SME/dtd/smml.dtd"> <compound id="PLMD_module" name="PLMD_module" > <compound id="CONSUMERS_module" name="CONSUMERS_module" location="CONSUMERS_module.xml" > <port type="output" name="CONS_EGEST" /> <port type="output" name="CONS_MORT_BIOM" /> <port type="output" name="CI_DETR" /> ... </compound> ... <link name="c__0" origin = "GLOBALS_module.CELL_SIZE" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.CELL_SIZE" /> <link name="c__1" origin = "DETRITUS_module.DET_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DET_AVAIL" /> <link name="c__2" origin = "DOM_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" destination = "CONSUMERS_module.DOM_C_AVAIL" /> </compound> Institute for Ecological Economics

  20. Typical State Variables • Examples of some typical state variables: • (Dissolved Inorganic) Nitrogen, Phosphorus • Water (Saturated, Unsaturated, Surface, Snow) • Detritus • Macrophyte (Non)Photosynthetic Biomass • Consumers • Deposited Organic Matter • Phytoplankton • Epiphytes Institute for Ecological Economics

  21. Agent Based Modeling in SME • Swarm agents can populate SME landscapes. • SME-Swarm integration: • http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/swarmsme • Swarm classes serve as wrappers for: • SME model. • SME grid layers. • SME spatial variables. • Two-way remote data transfer. • Built on SNI simulation server architecture: • http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/sni Institute for Ecological Economics

  22. Multi-Grid Library • Integrates multiple spatial representations • Implements space in SME • Major Components include: • Cell: Spatially referenced area (or volume) element. • Grid: Distributed set of Cells + links. • Frame: Hierarchy of distributed Grids. • Link: Connection between Cells. • Intra-Grid: spatial contiguity. • Inter-grid: scaling relations or mappings. • Activation Layer: Subset of Cells in a Frame. • Coverage: Mapping:: Activation Layer -> floats. Institute for Ecological Economics

  23. Distributed Processing • Spatial grid • partitioned over processors • Highly parallel application • Recursive N-section: • excellent load balancing • Fully transparent to user Institute for Ecological Economics

  24. Model Calibration toolkit • Built on MPE toolkit: • http://iee.umces.edu/~villa/svp/ • Calculate performance measure (MPE) • Estimate of match between model & system. • Weighted sum of tests (Bounds, Theil, Freq, etc). • Search parameter space to maximize MPE. • Evolutionary and gradient searches. • Params, tests, & searches configured in SME. Institute for Ecological Economics

  25. SME Java Portal • Desktop access to remote supercomputing resources • Web-enabled ( using java servlets ) • Grid enabled ( using globus gram utility ) • Java applet <-> Java servlet <-> C++ apps • Portal interfaces include: • Workspace management • Module development • Model configuration • Simulation initialization, control, & visualization Institute for Ecological Economics

  26. WorkSpace Manager Institute for Ecological Economics

  27. Configuration Manager Documentation Panel Documentation of selected command Model Panel Hierarchical View of model objects Associated commands as boxes Command Panel Structure of selected command Property Panel Command Arguments Institute for Ecological Economics

  28. Parameter Editor Edit Simulation Parameters Spreadsheet format Institute for Ecological Economics

  29. Simulation Control Control Execution View Model Structure Trace Dependencies View Model Equations Configure Visualization Institute for Ecological Economics

  30. ViewServer Control Panel • Associates DataSets • with Viewers • Creates Viewers • Manages DataSets Institute for Ecological Economics

  31. 2D Animation Viewer • 2D Animation Control • Dynamic and manual rescaling • ColorMap editor • Data viewer (point/spreadsheet) • Export as GIF or JPG Institute for Ecological Economics

  32. 3D Animation Viewer • Dynamic Landscapes • Variable1 -> Altitude • Variable2 -> Color • Mouse controlled navigation Institute for Ecological Economics

  33. Image Spreadsheet • Simultaneous display of variables at multiple timesteps • Useful for time series comparisons • Configure: start time, time step, magnification, scaling, etc. Institute for Ecological Economics

  34. Numerical Spreadsheet • View spatial data • Attach to vis panels • Follows animation • Export to Stat packages. Institute for Ecological Economics

  35. Links components: Circulation (OM3) Ecology (SME) Atmospheric coupling Chesapeake Bay Model Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

  36. Collaborative Virtual Environment Chesapeake Bay data in CVE with Cave5D/Virtual Director Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

  37. Example Applications • Everglades Landscape Model • http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/esr/elm/intro/welcome.htm • Patuxent Landscape Model • http://iee.umces.edu/PLM • Baltimore Ecosystem Study • http://baltimore.umbc.edu/lter • Illinois TES Models • http://blizzard.gis.uiuc.edu/ Institute for Ecological Economics

  38. Environmental Hydrology Institute for Ecological Economics Environmental Hydrology Applications Team

  39. SME Distribution The SME home page: http://iee.umces.edu/SME3 Includes: • Overview. • Technical documentation. • Publications. • Source code (C++ and java). • Links Institute for Ecological Economics

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