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How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage

How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage. Robin Carpenter, Moderator Chloe Lutts Jensen, Tom Garrity, Mike Cintolo, Jacob Mintz. How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage. Elements that Drive New Themes How to Identify Opportunities within a Theme

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How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage

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  1. How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage Robin Carpenter, Moderator Chloe Lutts Jensen, Tom Garrity, Mike Cintolo, Jacob Mintz

  2. How to Identify and Use Major Market Themes to Your Advantage • Elements that Drive New Themes • How to Identify Opportunities within a Theme • Thematic Drivers of Yesteryear • Current Thematic Elements • Current Favorites

  3. Elements that Drive New Themes • Demographics • Technology • Politics (Domestic & Geo) • Social Issues • Economics • Abundance & Scarcity

  4. How to Identify Opportunities within a Theme • Who Are the Direct Players? • Who Supplies the Direct Players? • Who are Winners and Losers? • Key Assumptions…Valid? • Are there Spin-off Themes?

  5. Thematic Drivers of Yesteryear • Internal Combustion & Autos • National Electrification • Radio Broadcasting (& TV) • Women in Workforce • Internet • Outsourcing

  6. Current Thematic Elements • Aging Populations • Genetic Revolution • West-East Politics • Climate Change

  7. Order Flow Reading Access to the Smartest and Most Sophisticated Traders in the World

  8. What I’m looking for • Unusual Call or Put Volume

  9. Top 100 Takeovers in 2012 • Average Call Volume Six Months Prior to Deal • 1,313 Calls • Average Call Volume Five Days prior to Deal • 2,239 Calls • Difference of 71%!!

  10. MBIA Inc. • Average Option Volume of 7,000 contracts • In March a trader bought 50,000 August 13/16 Call Spreads Trade for $0.50 • On May 6, the stock jumped 40% from 9-14 following a settlement with BAC • That trade netted a profit of $5 million

  11. Chip Stocks: Long Bear Market

  12. Emerging Markets: Sitting Out

  13. Europe: End of Depression?

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