Measuring Wilderness Recreation Use: Counts & Visit/Visitor Characteristics

1. This document is contained within the Visitor Use Management Toolbox on Wilderness.net. Since other related resources found in this toolbox may be of interest, you can visit this toolbox by visiting the following URL: http://www.wilderness.net/index.cfm?fuse=toolboxes&sec=vum. All toolboxes are products of the Arthur Carhart National Wilderness Training Center.

2. Measuring Wilderness Recreation Use:Counts & Visit/Visitor Characteristics Adapted from a presentation by: Vita Wright and Brian Glaspell Research Application Program Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute Missoula, Montana

3. http://leopold.wilderness.net Social & Ecological Research Research Application

4. Today’s Objectives • Status of wilderness use estimation • Handbook of methods & systems • Components of a use estimation system • Common types of use estimation systems

5. Reported Use Trends:How Accurate Are They? 200,000 Increase 175,000 482% 150,000 121% 125,000 Estimated # visitors1 100,000 403% 75,000 619% 50,000 184% 25,000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Year 1Based on USFS Recreation Visitor-Days as reported

6. Wilderness Use Estimation USFS Survey1 Results: Most managers indicated: • Limited resources available (funding, personnel, equipment, training) • Few systematic efforts to estimate use • Little confidence in existing data • Wide variation in experience with methods 1USFS Regions 4, 5, 8

7. Wilderness Use EstimationAll Agencies • Managers from 423 of 440 wildernesses were surveyed • 63% relied on “best guesses” to estimate visitor use -- McClaran and Cole. 1993.

8. Why Monitor Social Conditions (visitor use) In Wilderness? • Meet legal mandates (Wilderness Act, RPA1, etc.) and agency policy direction • Increase confidence: Demand projections and use trends   • Input to decisionsabout limiting, managing, or distributing visitor use • Credibility and support: Budget requests or management decisions 1Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (1974)

9. Why Monitor Social Conditions (visitor use) In Wilderness? • Management plans and actions • LAC/VERP and baseline data needs • Where/when to allocate field personnel • Determining facility needs • Agency reporting • What else?

10. Commonly Identified Needs • How to estimate use with multiple access points and/or highly dispersed use? • How to estimate and correlate registration rates, permit compliance, etc.? • How to assess previously collected data? • How to do statistical sampling and calculations? • How to get the best data for the least effort/cost? • What are other places/agencies doing?

11. Wilderness Recreation Use Estimation: A Handbook of Methods and Systems http://leopold.wilderness.net/htopics/recuse.htm

12. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics of interest • Appropriate measurement techniques • Appropriate sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary

13. Handbook Organization • Components of a use estimation system • Objectives & use characteristics • Use estimation techniques • Sampling strategies for data collection • Step-by-step implementation of 10 major use estimation systems

14. Recreation Use Measurements • Method of travel • Group size • Activity • Length of stay • Distribution • Etc. • Counts • Visitor-hours • Recreation visitor days • Sociodemographics • Visitor knowledge • Visitor attitudes and preferences

15. Step 1: Clarify Objectives • Why are you collecting visitor use information? • What question(s) are you trying to answer, and where? • How are you planning to use this information? • Who is interested in this information?

16. Examples of Objectives – Why? • Obtain baseline information • Track trends • Link recreation use with changes in ecological conditions • Allocate/prioritize resources • Analyze effects or need for closures & other administrative decisions

17. More Objectives – Why? • Identify commercial vs. noncommercial use • Improve communication with visitors • Identify different visitor groups • Set social standards (planning frameworks) • Prove/disprove assumptions

18. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collected in 1985. (day and/or overnight use)

19. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collected in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Desired sociodemographics data includes age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. What What

20. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Desired sociodemographics data includes age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. • This information is needed for revision of the management plan. What What Why

21. Example Objectives Statement Where What • Managers at XXXX Wilderness want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since the permit system was discontinued in 1985. • Information will be gathered to estimate the amount, type, and distribution of use. • Desired sociodemographics data include age, sex, income, residence, and # of previous visits. • This information is needed for revision of the management plan. • Data collection will be considered part of existing personnel duties. It is anticipated that personnel can contribute 1-2 days/week to data collection. Minimal funds are available for additional equipment. What What Why How

22. Step 2: What Use Characteristics Do You Want To Measureto Meet Your Objectives?

23. Step 2: What Use Characteristics Do You Want To Measure? (p. 9) • Visit counts: Number of times past a site • Visit attributes: Characteristics of visits • Visitor attributes: Characteristics of visitors • Summary use statistics: Combine visit attributes with visit counts

24. Visit Counts Individual visits Group visits Visitor Attributes Sociodemographics Past experience Knowledge Attitudes & preferences Visit Attributes Method of travel Group size Length of stay Activity Commercial services Temporal distribution Spatial distribution Wilderness conditions Summary-Use Statistics (Counts + visit attributes) Visitor-days (24 hrs) Recreation visitor-days (12) Overnight stays

25. Use Characteristics –Do they meet objectives? Counts Visit counts. Site-specific plans for high use sites; ignores visit attributes   Method of travel, group size, spatial & temporal distribution. Location & nature of impacts; field personnel allocation Commercial use.Necessity of commercial allocations; impacts; trends; conflicts Sociodemographics. Visitor contact methods Past experience & knowledge. Resource protection & education strategies Attitudes & preferences. Anticipate response to management strategies Visits Visits Visitors Visitors Visitors

26. Example Objectives Statement Managers want to know if the amount of use and sociodemographics have changed since baseline data was collectedin 1985. Information will be gathered to estimate: • amount, • type, and • distribution of use. Sociodemographics include: • age, • sex, • income, • residence, and • # of previous visits. Visitors Counts Visits

27. Step 3: WhichMeasurement TechniquesMeet Your Needs?

28. Visual Observation External, internal, roaming Mechanical Counters Registration Categories of Use Estimation Techniques Indirect Estimation Permits Surveys

29. Structure of Systems • Use characteristics that can be measured • Measurement techniques • Equipment purchase • Equipment installation • Data collection strategies • Visitor use calculation

30. Choosing a Counter Sample from Handbook (p. 23) • Installation site • Equipment vandalism • Environmental influences on accuracy • Cost • Maintenance requirements • Method of calibration

31. Types of Counters

32. Use characteristics measured Counter type Number of counters needed Calibration method Sampling plan Purchase equipment Install equipment Collect calibration data Collect counter data Estimate use System B: Steps (p. 79)Counters with observer calibration

33. Use characteristics Permit form Permit-issue procedure Sampling plan Purchase/install equipment 6. Select/train interviewers Collect compliance rate and interview data Estimate use System G: Steps (p. 128)Permits with compliance checks and interviews

34. Summary of Techniques The most appropriate technique provides: Data that meet objectives Minimal visitor burden Acceptable cost Desired accuracy

35. What determines if a sampling technique is good? • All methods are ‘good’ and can produce high quality results • All methods can be ‘bad’ without ‘good’ application • To assure ‘good’ results be sure to have a ‘good’: - sampling strategy/plan - implementation of sampling plan

36. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics • Measurement techniques • Sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary

37. Step 4:Design a Sampling Plan (i.e. Strategy for Data Collection)

38. Why Sample and not Census Efficiency Sampling = studying a part to gain information about the whole • Less time and cost than a census of the entire population • Obtain a sample that is representative of the population

39. Why Statistics? So we can sample rather than census the population. • Helps us design projects that meet our accuracy goals. • Helps us understand what we can and can’t say about our population, from our data.

40. Confidence in Numbers(Based on Random Sampling) • Discuss results in probability terms: “I am 95% confident that between June 1 and September 30, there were between 5,250 and 5,340 visits to the XXX Wilderness.” • Right 19 of 20 times

41. Eliminating Bias… Bias = some units represented more in sample than population • Convenience/judgment sampling based on assumptions/guesses may not represent the population • Random sampling protect against bias represent the population

42. Steps Before Sampling • Define the population • Define the sampling unit • Determine appropriate sample size

43. Population All members of the group that you want to learn about Group: All visitors Day users Packstock users Bounds: Entire Wilderness Local population Summer dates Sampling unit = subset

44. Sample Size: How many days to sample?How many people to sample?

45. How many days to sample?How many people to sample? Based on: • Variability in measured characteristic; obtained from a previously collected data or preliminary survey • How precise do you want your sample estimate to be? • Cost:available personnel & budget Precision vs. cost

46. Step 5: Entering and Analyzing Data • What tools do you have? Software: Excel, Access, SPSS, SPLUS, others? Stats Analysts Can Help!

47. The Analysis ParalysisWhat to do with all the data ? • Count and weigh the boxes • Use locally generated database/spreadsheet programs • Use corporate information management programs (i. e. FS Infra-WILD VUPS)

48. Analysis Paralysis solutions? Analysis of data is just as important as collection of data • Plan ahead • Include in cost estimates • Seek help through agency IM staff and other wilderness managers • Utilize off-season volunteers, SCA, front office staff, university grad. student ???

49. System = Technique What Is a Wilderness Use Estimation System? • Objectives • Use characteristics of interest • Appropriate measurement techniques • Appropriate sampling strategy • Data analysis and summary

50. Convenience or judgment sampling External Visual Observations Internal Visual Observations – stationary and roaming Mechanical Traffic Counters Registration Permits – limited and non-limited Visitor Surveys Indirect estimation Aerial surveys Types of Use Estimation Systems