Alcohol Availability & Alcohol Consumption: New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions

1. Alcohol Availability &Alcohol Consumption:New Evidence from Sunday Sales Restrictions Kitt Carpenter (UC Irvine) & Daniel Eisenberg (University of Michigan) Comments welcome (kittc@uci.edu)

2. Motivation • Large body of evidence in economics and public health that links alcohol availability and alcohol consumption. • Availability as measured by: • Prices, taxes • Age restrictions • Proximity to liquor stores

3. Our Paper: Sunday Sales Policies • All states allow alcohol to be purchased on Sundays for on-premise consumption (e.g. at bars & restaurants). • States and provinces vary as to whether alcohol can be purchased on Sundays for off-premise consumption (e.g. at home). • Some have no restrictions • Some prohibit entirely • Some allow localities to decide

4. Sunday Sales Map: 2006 (APIS)

5. Background • “Blue laws” have been around since before the Revolutionary war. • Prohibited shopping, working, or consuming alcohol on Sundays. • Enforcement unclear, but strong support around Prohibition era.

6. Policy Relevance • Since 2002, 12 states have repealed their bans on off-premise Sunday sales, trying to increase state tax revenues. • Possible unintended effects: • What if Sunday sales restrictions do not affect overall sales/consumption? (e.g. if they simply shift the within-week distribution?) • What if bar goers substitute toward home drinking? • If consumption does increase on Sundays, what if there are negative externalities? (e.g. fatalities)

7. Our Question:Do Blue Laws Affect Drinking? • We are aware of no empirical evidence on the effects of these restrictions on alcohol consumption per se. • This is surprising, since the restrictions: • are widespread (16 states prohibit SS) • are nontrivial (14% of hours of sale) • have directly testable implications

8. Related Literature - Fatalities • McMillan et. al. (2005 AJPH) • Considers New Mexico’s 1995 repeal of its Sunday sales ban. • Finds extremely large fatality increases (42%) • Smith (’78, ’87, ’88a, ’88b, ’90) • Uses Australian city/state introduction of Sunday trading hours, controls for changes in outcomes on other days of the week. • Finds extremely large fatality increases (32-100%).

9. Data Requirements For This Study • Geographic identifiers & day-specific alcohol consumption outcomes. • In US: NLAES 1992 (N ~ 40,000) • In Canada: NPHS 1994-99 (N ~ 57,000) • We use the data as repeated cross-sections to take advantage of large Ontario buy-in in 1996/97

10. Cross-Section Drinking Model: OLS • Day-specific drinking outcome =  + 1X + 2(Sunday sales allowed) + 3Z + Jd +  • X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, veteran status, employment dummies • Jd are Census division indicators (US only) • Z is state ACCRA real beer, wine, and spirits prices (US only)

11. Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKUS: NLAES 1992

12. Alternative Model: Any Drinks

13. Coefficient is: Sunday Sales OKCanadian NPHS 1994-1999

14. Interpreting Cross-Section Results • Patterns of coefficients support a causal effect of Sunday sales restrictions on point in time consumption. • Modest evidence of Monday/Tuesday spillovers & Friday/Saturday substitution. • Estimates consistent with a small but nontrivial effect of Sunday sales on overall population drinking.

15. Remaining Unobservables? • What if unobserved characteristics about states are correlated not only with overall alcohol consumption but also day-specific consumption? • Religiosity may be correlated both with the presence of a Sunday sales restriction and lower drinking on Sundays. • Goal: isolate a plausibly exogenous change in Sunday-specific availability.

16. Ontario’s policy change • Alcohol sales are heavily regulated by the Canadian provincial governments. • In Ontario, off-premise alcohol sales only available at LCBO’s (not at supermarkets). • Prior to 1997, allowed some Sunday sales at a few Nov/Dec holidays. • After 1997, Sunday sales ok. • No other province changed Sunday alcohol sales policy over this period.

17. Diff-in-Diff Drinking Model: OLS • Day-specific drinking outcome =  + 1X + 2(After 1997) + 3(Ontario) + 4(After 1997 * Ontario) +  • X includes: race, education, sex, marital status, employment dummies • Robust standard errors clustered on province.

18. Coefficient is: Ontario * After ’97Canadian NPHS 1994-1999

19. Interpreting the DD Results • Consistent with a causal effect of Sunday sales restrictions on Sunday alcohol consumption • Modest evidence of effects on overall population drinking • Effect sizes slightly smaller than those implied by cross-sectional results • Relevant subsamples are significant at 5% (prime age adults, females)

20. Implications • We have not evaluated the overall costs/benefits of liberalizing Sunday sales policies. • Main benefits are reductions in inconvenience costs. • Modest consumption effects suggest health costs are unlikely to be severe, though this requires more research.

21. Next Steps • Canadian Community Health Survey (2001 and 2003), very large samples (100K each) • Fatal Accident Reporting System (FARS) • 1992: Do day-specific fatalities mirror our day-specific consumption patterns? • More recently, do repeals of Sunday sales bans affect day-specific fatalities? • Comments welcome (kittc@uci.edu)