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Extreme Weather Events

Disasters. Hazard. Vulnerability. Extreme Weather Events. Society (Increased Population, Wealth, Vulnerability). current climate. changed climate. Probability of high extremes. frequency (year). copeing range. X. X cc. degrees Celcius.

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Extreme Weather Events

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  1. Disasters Hazard Vulnerability Extreme Weather Events Society (Increased Population, Wealth, Vulnerability)

  2. current climate changed climate Probability of high extremes frequency (year) copeing range X Xcc degrees Celcius Greater weather extremes (more intense droughts,heavy rains, cyclones) An increase in mean and variance imply a nonlinear increase in the probability of extremes, which requires to adjust design criteria

  3. What will the climate become? “Global warming is likely to lead to greater extremes of drying and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of droughts and floods that occur … in many different regions.” IPCC,(2001)

  4. IPCC Assessment Floods, land slides, mudslides,  impacts - people, property, costs drinking water, agricultural productivity, hydropower, wildfires 90-99% Intense Precipitation Drought Tropical Cyclones 66-90%  impacts – people, economic systems, property, ecology McBean, G., 2005

  5. Likely Impacts of Climate Change • In 1990s, global economic costs of disasters with a natural trigger> $ 608 billion. • During 21st Century, climate-related disaster losses are expected to increase dramatically. • E.g., economic losses by 2050, expected to reach $300 billion/annually

  6. Types of Flooding According to their duration: 1. Slow-Onset Floods 2. Rapid-Onset Floods 3. Flash Floods According to their location: • Coastal Floods • Arroys Floods • River Floods • Urban Floods • Dam- and Levee-Failure Floods

  7. Coastal and Storm-Surge Floods Fırtına Kabarması ve Dalgalar Nedeniyle Kıyılarda Sel Oluşumu

  8. Sea level rise will amplify the threats due to storm surges and coastal flooding.

  9. Bruun Rule (1/100) ...

  10. Tens of millions of people are projected to be at risk of being displaced by sea level riseAssuming 1990s Level of Flood Protection Source: R. Nicholls, Middlesex University in the U.K. Meteorological Office. 1997. Climate Change and Its Impacts: A Global Perspective.

  11. Urban floods increase in runoff, decreased of precipitation lag time, and increase in the frequency and magnitude of flooding

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