1 / 17

Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum?

Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum?. John Curtice ScotCen /Strathclyde University. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation. Ranking of small areas on seven criteria: Employment Income Health Education, Skills, and Training

cliff
Download Presentation

Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Will Scotland’s Disadvantaged Communities Participate in the Referendum? John Curtice ScotCen/Strathclyde University

  2. Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation • Ranking of small areas on seven criteria: • Employment • Income • Health • Education, Skills, and Training • Geographic Access to Services • Crime • Housing • Focusing on those in 20% most deprived areas

  3. Questions • Is motivation to vote lower in the most deprived areas? • Why is this be the case? • Is disinclination to vote an individual or collective outlook? • How do the prospects for September compare with behaviour at previous elections?

  4. Scottish Social Attitudes • Annual probability sample of 1500 people resident in Scotland interviewed face to face • Conducted by ScotCen Social Research since 1999 • Cousin of British Social Attitudes • Aims to (i) facilitate study of public opinion (ii) facilitate development/evaluation of public policy • Has regularly tracked participation in elections and orientation towards politics

  5. Ascertaining Likelihood to Vote Please think of a scale that runs from 0 to 10, where 0 means very unlikely and 10 means very likely. How likely is it that you will vote in the independence referendum? (Scale presented on a card)

  6. Reported Turnout in 2010 & 2011

  7. Some Demographic Differences Source: SSA 2013

  8. Attitudinal Differences Source: SSA 2013

  9. But What About Independence?

  10. Likelihood of Voting

  11. Referendum and 2011 Compared

  12. Still A Question of Political Interest…

  13. …Even Though Perceived Impact of Independence Matters Too

  14. Once Attitudes Taken Into Account ‘Community’ Itself Doesn’t Matter

  15. Albeit Did So A Little In 2011

  16. What Does Matter 2011 2014 Interest in Politics Party ID Independence Make Difference to Life Age Knowledge of Independence Independence Complicated Educational Attainment • Interest in Politics • Age • Party ID • Educational Attainment • Deprivation

  17. Conclusion • Motivation to vote is lower amongst people living in more deprived areas – and (relatively) referendum not that dissimilar to recent elections • People in such areas are less interested in politics and less connected to political parties • Albeit as likely as anyone else to think independence could make a difference • Once these (individual) attitudinal characteristics are taken into account, ‘community’ makes little difference.

More Related