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EU East Enlargement Trade and Budgetary Effects

EU East Enlargement Trade and Budgetary Effects. Klaus Frohberg Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO). Importance of Agriculture and Land Availability in the 10 CEECs in Comparison to the EU, 1999. importance of agriculture. land availability.

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EU East Enlargement Trade and Budgetary Effects

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  1. EU East Enlargement Trade and Budgetary Effects Klaus Frohberg Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO)

  2. Importance of Agriculture and Land Availability in the 10 CEECs in Comparison to the EU, 1999 importance of agriculture land availability Source: own calculation based on data of WIIW and national statistics

  3. Yield of wheat relative to EU [EU=100] Source: based on FAO data (1999)

  4. Yield of dairy cows relative to EU [EU=100] Source: based on FAO data (1999)

  5. Development of GDP (in real terms) per capita in the CEECs (1990=100) Source: Own calculations based on data taken from the Transition report of the EBRD (2000)

  6. Agricultural Policies without accession(‚Base run‘) • Agricultural policies of 1997 remain unchanged in candidate countries (PSEs remain unchanged) • Technical progress based on past observations • Increase in income according to economic growth and the changes of food prices • No adjustments of consumer preferences

  7. Agricultural policy after accession(results ‚Enlargement‘) • Accession of all 10 CEECs until 2007 • Implementation CAP according to Agenda 2000: • market price support • area payments for corn, oilseeds, protein crops and set-aside area • livestock premiums • national supplemental payments • production quota for sugar and milk according to the reference period 2001 • obligatory set-asides of 10 %adjusted forsmallfarmers

  8. Agricultural policy after accession(results ‚Enlargement‘) (continued) • in the simulations • for border protection • export subsidies calculated using FAPRI-prices for the world market • (Net-) export volume is expanded to gross figures • WTO-obligations not considered as constraints

  9. Change in Production and Consumption in 2007by implementing the AGENDA 2000 (in %; CECs-10)1 • 1) Compared with base run • Source: simulations using the model CEEC-ASIM (2000).

  10. Net exports and their changes in the CEECs-10

  11. Welfare changes in the 10 candidate countriesdue to the enlargement (price level of 1999)

  12. Budget expenditures in the candidate countries (base run)and in the EU (enlargement scenario)(at price level of 1999)

  13. EU budget expenditures by kind of payment and by product (in billion Euro, at price level of 1999) source: calculations with CEEC-ASIM

  14. EU budget expenditures by kind of payment and by product (in billion Euro, at price level of 1999) source: calculations with CEEC-ASIM

  15. Transfer payments from the EU budget to the candidate countries (at price level of 1999)

  16. EU budget expenditures by kind of payment and by product (in billion Euro, at price level of 2007) source: calculations with CEEC-ASIM

  17. EU budget expenditures by kind of payment and by product (in billion Euro, at price level of 2007) source: calculations with CEEC-ASIM

  18. Consequences for the current member countries • effects on the budget • repercussions for consumers and producers by implementing the Agenda 2000 in the CEEC-10 • changes might occur due to increased factor movements • further reforms of the CAP necessary

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