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Stella Systems Thinking Modelling

Stella Systems Thinking Modelling. Grace Skrzypiec. Modelling. Models provide a “picture” or representation of “reality”. Modelling. “All Models are ‘wrong’, some models are useful”. …. W. Edwards Deming. Modelling. Develop a mental model using 8 systems thinking skills:.

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Stella Systems Thinking Modelling

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  1. StellaSystems Thinking Modelling Grace Skrzypiec

  2. Modelling • Models provide a “picture” or representation of “reality”

  3. Modelling “All Models are ‘wrong’, some models are useful” …. W. Edwards Deming

  4. Modelling Develop a mental model using 8 systems thinking skills: • 10,000 metre view • System as cause • Dynamic thinking • Operational thinking • Closed-loop thinking • Non-linear thinking • Scientific thinking • Empathic thinking

  5. Modelling “Rules” • Unitconsistency • Conservation Law

  6. Model Development • What Questions to ask: • How many juveniles pass through each point in the system? • Initiation: Start Offending • Persistence: Continued Offending • Desistance: Stop Offending Follow sequence from Apprehensions to Secure Care Collate data on rates of change What If? Scenarios

  7. Model of SA Juvenile Justice System

  8. Model Interface

  9. A child is eligible to be apprehended by police for an offence committed at the age of 10 population As long as they don’t offend they join the pool of non-offending juveniles Non- offenders Becoming juvenile Part 1

  10. Turning 18 population Those who do not offend as juveniles leave the pool of non-offenders when they turn 18. Non- offenders Becoming juvenile Part 1

  11. Turning 18 population Non- offenders Initiators Committing first offence Becoming juvenile When a juvenile offends for the first time they join the pool of Initiators. ~Rate~ ~Age~ First Apprehension rate Part 1

  12. Turning 18 population Rate Police juvenile apprehension rate Non- offenders Initiators Committing first offence Police Becoming juvenile ~Rate~ ~Age~ First Apprehension rate Part 1 Detected offending is influenced by the number of Police available and their juvenile apprehension rate

  13. Part 2 YC after SC Secure Care Desist after YC Persist after YC Police Custody YC after first offence FC after first offence Initiators Committing first offence Div after first offence Family Conference Diverted offenders Youth Court Desist after Div Reoffending Persist after Div Desisters Desist after FC Recidivists Persist after FC

  14. Questions • What are the relationships between stocks? • What factors influence flow? • Model gender separately? • Model Indigenous status separately?

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