CIDO African Union

1. TOWARD 2063 – OUR STRENGTHS,OPPORTUNITIES, WEAKNESSES AND THREATSCSO CONSULTATION – AGENDA 2063Dakar, Senegal, Sept. 30, 2013Michael Sudarkasa, CEO, Africa Business Group CIDO African Union

2. OUR PATH, OUR FUTURE • Lagos Plan of Action • Abuja Treaty • African Economic Community • New Partnership for Africa’s Development • Progress - S.W.O.T Analysis • Toward Agenda 2063

3. Lagos Plan of Action • Lagos Plan of Action for the Economic Development of Africa 1980 - 2000 • At meeting of the Organization of African Unity, Adopted in Lagos, Nigeria in April 1980. • Post colonial era, review of first 20 years of “independence” 1960 – 1980, in the shadows of the independence of Zimbabwe • Focus on African economic self-determination-in agriculture, science and technology, toward industrialization, intra-African trade, infrastructure development, human capital development, national resource development, shared learning • In the context though – of new governments, minimal intra-African economic linkages, IMF recipes of structural adjustment, non-existent domestic private sectors, dependence on donor assistance, great influence of multi-national corporations . . .

4. ABUJA TREATY • Abuja Treaty for the Establishment of the African Economic Community, entered into in Abuja, Nigeria by members of the Organization of African Unity on June 3, 1991 – entered into force in 1994 • Six stage economic integration path: • By 1999 – Creation of regional blocs in regions where they do not yet exist • By 2007 – Strengthening of inter-REC integration and inter-rec harmonisation • By 2017 - Establish a Free Trade Area and Customs Union in each regional bloc • By 2019 – Establish a continent-wide customs union (incorporating a continent wide free trade area) • By 2023 – Establishing a continent-wide African Common Market • By 2028 – Establishing a continent-wide economic and monetary union (and currency) and Parliament By 2034 latest – end all transition periods

5. ABUJA TREATY (Cont.) • Regional Economic Communities - the Pillars • COMESA – founded 1994 • EAC – founded 2001 • ECCAS – founded 1985 • ECOWAS – founded 1975 • SADC – founded 1980 • IGAD – founded 1986 • CENSAD – founded 1988 • UMA – founded 1989

6. NEW PARTNERSHIP FOR AFRICA’S DEVELOPMENT • Adopted at the 37th session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government in July 2001 as the New African Initiative in Lusaka, Zambia. • NEPAD is a merger of two plans for the economic regeneration of Africa: the Millennium Partnership for the African Recovery Programme (MAP), led by Former President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa and Former President OlusegunObasanjo of Nigeria and President bdelazizBouteflika of Algeria; and the OMEGA Plan for Africa developed by President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal. • The Heads of State and Government Implementation Committee (HSGIC) for the project finalized the policy framework and renamed the initiative the “New Partnership for Africa's Development” on 23 October 2001 • Today as a Programme of the AU, NEPAD seeks to provide an overarching vision and policy framework for accelerating economic co-operation and integration

7. S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE • STRENGTHS • All initiatives well intentioned, entered into with historical context well articulated and appreciated • Most countries of the continent participated - so near unanimous support (exceptions Morocco, South Africa pre – 1994 etc.) • Have helped propel continental economic partnership thinking - economic growth and greater political freedom • Underlying initiatives have promoted regional unity, economic cooperation, trade, investment and freer flows of peoples • Good practices are being developed – ECOWAS – passport less travel; OHADA – harmonized laws; currency unions – West Africa CFA franc, Central Africa CFA franc; Common Monetary Area of Southern Africa; COMESA and EAC – Free Trade Areas; African Free Trade Zone – SADC, COMESA and EAC (2012 – ECOWAS, ECCAS and AMU)

8. S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE • WEAKNESSES • Colonial ties/ divisions/ relationships hard to break, slow progress – Francophonie, EPAs, Lusophonie • Small national economies, 26 (of 55) countries have less than 10 million people, 20 5 million or less • National governments reticent to devolve power/ fund capacity development to/ of the RECs • Multiple memberships within RECs which overlap regional boundaries slowing integration, works against regional harmonization • Uneven democratization, governance philosophies, selected long standing regional/ ethnic feuds are impediments to regional/ continental unity – North Africa, Great Lakes, Horn of Africa • Economic growth and regional integration not yet adequately inclusive • African leaders not adequately committed to abiding by Constitutional term limits

9. S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE • OPPORTUNITIES • Global Economic Slow Down – re-ordered Africa’s global economic relationships (opened path for new trading partners from the South), encouraged focus on greater domestic resource mobilization • Past “liabilities” becoming assets - Growing populations – creating more attractive markets; “Brain Drain – created financially better off Diaspora, led to remittance flows and skills transfer – “Brain Gain”; Poor infrastructure – communications and energy, allowing for innovation, technology leap frogging – cellular technology proliferation, renewable energy opportunities • Underutilized agricultural potential – continental food security, bread basket to the world • Youthful population and low wage base – potentially next global manufacturing hub • Still globally unique natural resource reserves – trade, supply, and value addition opportunities will continue to increase

10. S. W. O. T. ANALYSIS OF PROGRES TO DATE • THREATS • More complex global geo-political system – multiplying national relationships, rather than REC driven/regional partnerships (Colonial States, and newer Southern Partnerships) • Week domestic private sectors – at a time when private sector led growth is the mantra – risk economic re-colonialisation if blindly seek to attract foreign capital with supporting indigenous enterprises and encouraging entrepreneurship • Non-inclusive GDP growth creating wealth disparity- leaving youth un/ under-employed, idle . . .creates opportunity for civil unrest, third force influences to grow • Governance challenges – succession planning, curtailing of illicit flows/ corruption, political intolerance • Climate change – lack of preparedness for natural disasters • Under developed infrastructure to facilitate intra-African economic integration

11. …TOWARD THE AFRICAN AGENDA 2063 Selected thoughts on milestone priorities: • Mobility – One Continent, One Visa – promote regional and continental mobility • Depoliticize Regional Integration – One Region, One REC – fast track economic and political integration among contiguous states, commit to expand resource flows to RECs • Prioritize Continental Transport Infrastructure Development – Road, Rail and Air transport improvement will accelerate regional integration • Prioritize Energy Infrastructure Development – Electricity indispensable catalyst for economic development • Education and Skills Development Prioritization – Commit to improving labour force, means greater focus on youth preparedness for 21st century labour market/ entrepeneurship • Leverage Diaspora Potential (Populations and Nations) - Harness skills, capital, connections (political and economic) better and as a priority as part of domestic resource mobilization aim • Continental Solutions First – look to identify and share continental good practice toward development – support development of internal African expertise and knowledge networks

12. A CSO CONSULTATION CONTRIBUTION . . . THANK YOU! Africa Business Group TBC-Design Quarter William Nicol Road, Corner Leslie Ave. Fourways 2128, Johannesburg PO Box 413586, Craighall 2024, South Africa Tel: 27 11 513 4117 Fax: 27 86 619 2444 Cell: 27 82 414 8671 E-mail: michael@abghq.com URL: www.abghq.com