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Monsoons, Megawatts, and Monster Catfish. Conflict and Cooperation over Mainland Southeast Asia’s Transboundary Rivers. Darrin Magee Hobart & William Smith Colleges. Asia’s water tower…. Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. … and powershed ?. River as Untapped Resource.
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Monsoons, Megawatts, and Monster Catfish Conflict and Cooperation over Mainland Southeast Asia’s Transboundary Rivers Darrin Magee Hobart & William Smith Colleges
Asia’s water tower… Qinghai-Tibet Plateau … andpowershed?
River as Untapped Resource • Yunnan hydro development push since mid-1980s • Lancang-Mekong • 4800 km long (1200 in YN) • 6 countries • Nu-Salween • 2800 km long (600 in YN) • 3 countries • Jinsha-Chang-Yangtze • 6300 km long • 9 Provinces + Tibet border • Now: 120 GW; 2020: 300 GW; Potential: 384 GW Manwan Dam
LTJ JB WNL TB HD TMK GGQ Elevation (m) XW MW DCS NZD JH GLB MS Distance (km) Lancang Cascade
Yunnan Huaneng Lancang Hydro Co. • One of five power conglomerates split off from former Ministry of Electric Power • Officially “stock company” but majority of stocks are non-tradable • Development begun in 1987; first dam completed in 1993 (Manwan)
Nu Cascade Lumadeng 2000 MW 165 m Songta 4200 MW 307 m Bijiang 1500 MW 71 m Bingzhongluo 1600 MW 55 m (Y)abiluo 1800 MW 133 m Maji 4200 MW 300 m Shitouzai 440 MW 59 m Lushui 2400 MW 175 m Saige 1000 MW 79 m Yansangshu 1000 MW 84 m Liuku 180 MW 36 m Guangpo 600 MW 58 m ~1100 m Fugong 400 MW 60 m ~600 km
Yunnan Huadian Nu River Hydro Co. • One of five power conglomerates split off from former Ministry of Electric Power • Officially “stock company” but majority of stocks are non-tradable • Development halted in March 2004 by Premier for failure to follow EIA procedures • Ongoing “illegal” development halted again in spring 2009
Policy Framework • Western Development Campaign (2001) • Focus on resources and infrastructure • Send Western Electricity East (西电东送) • Prioritized in 2001 • Send Yunnan Power to Guangdong (滇电粤送) • Ultra-high-voltage DC lines (800 kV) by 2010 • Send Yunnan Electricity Outward (云电外送) • Power sales to Vietnam since 2004, Thailand next • Pan-Pearl River Delta (凡珠三角)
Three West-East Corridors (通道) Northern Corridor From: Yalong Tsangpo & Yellow To: Capital area Middle Corridor From: Jinsha/Upper Yangtze To: Shanghai area Southern Corridor From: Lancang/Nu To: Guangdong area Beijing / Tianjin area Shanghai / Zhejiang / Jiangsu area Guangdong / PRD
GMS GMS: Reasons for the (sub)region • 1992 Asian Development Bank • 6 Members • 2005 Summit in China • Naturalizing discourse • Grids • Roads • Rail • Shipping • Tourism • Goods
China’s dam-builders go south (and elsewhere) Exporting Expertise
Global dam efforts by Chinese firms • Roughly 100 projects (McDonald et al., 2008) • Often coupled with related infrastructure • Roads, bridges, communications • Investment approach in addition to aid • Motivated in large part by primary resource needs • Reforms in electric power industry open door for flexibility and opportunism (Magee 2006; McDonald et al., 2008) Magee, D. Powershed Politics. The China Quarterly 185 (2006). McDonald, K., et al., Exporting dams: China’s hydropower industry goes global, Journal of Environmental Management (2008).
Exporting knowledge • Africa • Algeria, Botswana, Ethiopia, Congo, Sudan • Eastern Europe • Albania, Georgia • Central Asia/Middle East • Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Iran, Pakistan • And of course, next door…
China and Mainland SE Asia • China upstream, regional power • Projects key to China’s western and regional development • Concerns downstream about China hegemony • Mekong River Commission (MRC) • Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam members • China, Myanmar dialogue partners • MSEA governments, with or without blessing of MRC, buying into China hydro development • Inter-government Agreement for Power Trade in GMS • Thai co-investment in Chinese power stations • Power sales from China to Vietnam • GMS focus on regional power grid integration • Power lines across Laos to Thailand
Mekong River Commission • New Strategic Plan (2006-2010) • “more investments in irrigation, navigation, and hydropower are bound to occur” • “appropriate exploitation of hydropower potential” • “potential area for cooperative development” • Review & update hydropower assessment (30 GW) • Hydropower “can play several important roles” • Modeling & assessment of proposed projects • 13 GW on mainstream Mekong • 13 GW on major Mekong tributaries
Energy Profile: Cambodia • Installed capacity: ~0.012 GW • Theoretical capacity: ~10 GW • Much of infrastructure, including power grid, was destroyed during latter half of 1900s • Widespread dependence on diesel generators for power (high cost, highly polluting, dependent on oil imports) • More than 20 isolated systems
Energy Profile: Vietnam • Installed capacity: ~4.5 GW • Theoretical capacity: ~18 GW • Plans for additional 5 GW by 2010 • Transboundary power sales already occurring from Yunnan since 2004 (110 kV) • New 500-kV line completed in 2006
Energy Profile: Laos • Installed capacity: ~0.7 GW • Theoretical capacity: ~30 GW • Second greatest hydro potential on Mekong • “Battery” for powering GMS development • “Transhipment” point for power transfers • Sinohydro, China National Electronics, and China Datang all bidding on Mekong cascade • e.g., Xanakham (600 MW, US $880M)
Energy Profile: Thailand • Installed capacity: ~3.5 GW • Theoretical capacity: ~15 GW • Most of technically, economically and politically feasible hydropower already built • Significant popular resistance to new projects and to operating rules of existing projects
Energy Profile: Myanmar (Burma) • Installed capacity: ~0.75 GW • Theoretical capacity: ~37 GW • Developing massive reserves requires international partnerships, made difficult by military regime in power • Ta Sang Project on Salween: 7110 MW • Thailand major investor, Chinese interest growing • Majority of power will go to Thailand
Sinohydro • Consulting and construction company built from assets of former MEP • Projects • Kamchay 193 MW, US $280M, largest investment by China in Cambodia, largest hydro project in Cambodia; also Kirirom III (13 MW) • Paklay (1320 MW) on Mekong in Laos • Also high-speed rail in China and other infrastructure projects in Angola
Grid Corporations • Two national-level grid corporations from MEP • Restructuring in 2002 was intended to separate generation from transmission in the electric power industry • China State Grid Xin Yuan International Investment Co. for Kirirom III (13 MW) in Cambodia • China Southern Power Grid signed MOU in 2007 to conduct feasibility study for Sambor (3300 MW or 465 MW) and Stung CheayAreng (260 MW) in Cambodia
Why the push southward? • China’s power shortages, future surplus? • “Soft power” approach to regional relations • Resource diplomacy throughout GMS • Curbing Japanese influence in the region • Japan Banking and Investment Corporation wields considerable influence through infrastructure funds • Asian Development Bank – Japan major partner • Mekong River Commission – Japan major donor
Social and Ecological Concerns • Changes to flow regime may impact downstream fishing and agriculture • Sediment trapping reduces natural fertilization of floodplain and dam efficiency • Resettlement disrupts social fabric and livelihoods • Interference with local power provision • Concerns about increase in dissolved gases, potential for methane production in warm reservoirs • Great uncertainty due to political obstacles to scientific collaboration and data-sharing
Monsoons • Real concerns about dam impacts on unique Tonle Sap ecosystem • Monsoon season • Water enters lake • Dry season • Water leaves lake • Major protein and rice source
Monster Catfish Charismatic megafauna? • Giant catfish of symbol of unique Mekong system • Decidedly less cuddly than pandas • Real concerns about future of anadromous fish in Mekong and tributaries • ~10 species migrate north past Chinese border • No fish passage structures
Pros and cons of large dams Benefits Costs Altered flow regime Impacts on ecosystems and human communities Change in water quality Population displacement Habitat alteration Health risks • Irrigation • Flood control • Power generation • Navigation • Recreation
To dam or not? • Multipurpose dams • Why do they often fail to meet design expectations? • How do dams alter the hydrograph of a river? • Highs? Lows? • Particularities of dams on transboundary rivers in China/Mainland SE Asia • Do the benefits outweigh the costs? • Is C/B analysis even a good way to evaluate?
Questions Darrin Magee, Ph.D. Environmental Studies Program Hobart & William Smith Colleges Geneva, NY magee@hws.edu