Foresight: Processes, Practices, and Methodologies Guide

1. Foresight: processes, practices and methodologies Rafael Popper – rafael.popper@manchester.ac.uk PREST - Manchester Institute of innovation Research, University of Manchester

2. Guides & Handbooks • The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice (2008) • Practical Guide to Research Infrastructure Foresight (2007) • Global Foresight Outlook (2007) • The Knowledge Society Foresight Handbook • Practical Guide to Regional Foresight (translated into EU languages) • UNIDO Technology Foresight Training Manual

3. Process A The EUFORIA case

4. Work plan http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/euforia

5. Process B The SCOPE case

6. Methodology Scanning & Desk studies (national reports sub-contracted) Validation of desk studies (May-June 2005) Drivers & trends (May-June 2005) Scenarios (June-July 2005) Validation & Prioritisation (August-September 2005) Recommendations (December 2005 – January 2006)

7. Process C The iKnow case

8. Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart

9. Workplan The iKnow case

10. A Foresight Process…Example of Work Plan / Timeline

11. A Foresight Process…Example of Work Plan / Logic Chart Knowledge Generation

12. A Foresight Process…Example of Work Packages (tasks & deliverables) Tasks Deliverables Objectives

13. Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond 9 methods 8 methods 7 methods 8 methods 6 methods vs. ?

14. The Foresight Process Quite often foresight is understood as a process with various complementary phases. Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal Miles (2002), Popper (2008)

15. Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Rationales • Sponsor(s) • Objectives • Orientation • Resources • Core team * • Time • Money • Infrastructure • Cultural • Political • Approaches • Time horizon • Methodology • Workplan • Activities • Tasks • Deliverables • Scope • - Context • Coverage • Project team * • - skills • Partners • Sub-contractors • Steering Group • Experts • - Thematic • Sectoral • - Regional • National • International • Champions • Thematic • … • Panels • Methodologists • Facilitators • Rapporteurs Existing knowledge is amalgamated, analysed and synthesised Tacit knowledge is codified New knowledge is generated (such as the elucidation of emerging issues, creation of new visions and images of the future, etc.) Advising - Strategies - Policy Options - Recommendations - … Transforming - Networking - Policy-making - Decision-making - … • Learning • - Process • - Products • Evaluation • Impacts • Efficiency • Appropriateness • Dissemination • - Shared Visions • - Foresight Culture • - … The Foresight Process (R. Popper, 2008) Step 5: evaluating KNOWLEDGE Step 4: shaping the future through strategic planning Step 3: generating (new) knowledge through the exploration, analysis and anticipationof possible futures Step 2: mobilising and engaging key stakeholders Step 1: scanning and understanding major S&T developments, trends and issues

16. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Objectives and Rationales • To map existing strengths/weaknesses and explore complementarities/overlaps of the networking centres/organisations • To identify future S&T and socio-economic opportunities and threats that should be addressed • To illustrate the unsustainability of the old management and business models and to demonstrate the ‘need’ for international collaboration or cluster formation • To function as a forum for involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries • To build a strong vision that the participants of the network/cluster can sign up to • To strengthen the strategic capacity of managers of the national centres, as well as national policy makers

17. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Selection criteria (if applicable!) • Futures • Require looking ahead at least 10 years, in areas where the outcomes are uncertain. This typically occurs where the future direction of change is rapid, current trends are uncertain or different trends may converge; • S&T • Have science and technology as the main drivers of change or are capable of impacting substantially on future scenarios; • Value-added: Impact • Have outcomes that can be influenced, to an extent that is significant for one or more of the economy, society and the environment; • Value added: Existing work • Are not covered by work carried on elsewhere. However, they must build from areas of active research; • Networks • Require an inter-disciplinary approach to the science, and bring together groups from academia, business and government. They must not be capable of resolution by a single group; and • Buy-in • Command the support of the groups most likely to be able to influence the future and be owned by a lead government department.

18. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Expected outcomes • An efficiently functioning network/cluster of upgraded facilities, better placed to: • respond to emerging scientific developments and growing multi-disciplinarity • meet the demands for new and diverse services • ensure better access to unique equipment and data bases • attract young researchers, and • improve harvesting and exploitation of existing knowledge.

19. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal SponsorsThe exercise is promoted by national agencies (e.g. SENA, Colciencias, etc.). In addition, the international sponsors could be considered (e.g. CAB, CAF, etc.). Project teamThe exercise is organised and managed by a mix of strategic planners from SENA and an national/international consultancy specialising in 3D and Foresight. DurationGiven the complicated nature of the issues and institutional landscape, the exercise has 18-month duration. Time horizon7, 10, 15 years (dependent on the issue under consideration, e.g. platforms, markets).

20. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Participation • Its distributed nature – which is required for local knowledge and embeddedness – has the need for: • regular face-to-face meetings and • special attention to be paid to communication processes. • Steering group In addition, a national/regional steering group is built of: • facility/company directors and • national policy makers • …together with several small national working parties of: • leading scientists and trainers • research managers.

21. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Panels / Working groupsNational working groups are set up around each of the existing centres – in order to: • collect and process national data • make sense of foresight results in a localised context. • There is a great deal of overlap in membership between all of these groups to ensure communication, while the working language of the transnational groups is English. • Experts / MembersMembers are drawn mostly from: • research centres, • national ministries, and other interested stakeholders, including: • business representatives and branch associations.

22. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting

23. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting • Stage • The exercise begins with an extensive programme of deskwork involving: • the preparation of ‘future outlooks’ on several of the sub-fields that constitute the area, • the mapping of existing strengths and weaknesses, • the exploration of complementarities and overlaps across the current national centres, and • an international benchmarking exercise 1 2 3 4 5

24. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting • Stage • Starting a little later but also working in parallel, a survey is carried out with scientists, industrialists, and public policy makers in order to: • capture the likely S&T needs of user communities (the ‘application’ sector) • identify key technologies • Following this, national and international working groups brainstorm around the emerging results of the exercise with the purpose of: • generating topic statements for an (inter)national online Delphi 1 2 3 4 5

25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting Stage Delphi is a means of consulting more widely around issues of uncertainty and likely importance. 1 2 3 4 5 Statement 1 Statement 2 Statement 3 Statement n

26. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting Stage Delphi is also used as a prioritisation tool, for example, identifying IST application areas contributing to EU goals 1 2 3 4 5 • TOP 5 AREAS • Education and learning • Social welfare/ public services • Government • Work organisation • Cultural diversity

27. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting • Stage • Drawing upon the results of earlier steps, the project team draft several scenarios that portray the region’s scientific and industrial profiles in different worlds, depending upon: • the level of collaboration between stakeholders, and • the governance and renewal of the national centres. • These are used to: • illustrate to a wide audience the unsustainability of ‘business as usual’, and • demonstrate the ‘need’ for (inter)national collaboration 1 2 3 4 5

28. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Combining methods to: • Improve existing knowledge • Literature review • Benchmarking • Gather tacit knowledge • Surveys • Brainstorming sessions • Delphi • Create new knowledge • Scenario writing • Scenario workshops • Backcasting • Stage • The desk-scenarios are used in a scenario workshop to: • generate a strong future vision (in the form of a ‘success scenario’) that the national ministries, national centres, and national communities can sign up to, and • lead to the proposal of concrete recommendations for moving forward through a backcasting exercise 1 2 3 4 5

29. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • However, the elaboration of the success scenario on the future network/cluster requires the development of actions under several important topics, such as: • design of common research agendas for applied and advanced research; • opportunities for acquiring and sharing equipment, knowledge and skills; • new access schemes to national centres’ resources; • new collaboration modes and diversification of services; • increase in multidisciplinarity of research fields; • gaining pan-European significance; • optimisation of knowledge exploitation and innovation processes; • communication across the network of facilities; and • design of the infrastructure of the networked facility or cluster (for example, centralized with sub-nodes, virtual, etc.), determined by its function.

30. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Once (a) the results have been generated and (b) recommendations articulated, the national and international structures put in place are transformed into implementation bodies. In this phase, an important challenge is: • to attract the necessary funding – from national governments and the EC – to carry through the recommendations. But with clear plans based upon extensive research and consultation, it is much easier to convince funding bodies of the merits of the network. • Product benefitsForesight has created a codified output that is useful for follow-up action • Process benefitsForesight has also provided a forum for the involvement and participation of stakeholders in different countries. The strategic dialogue space afforded by foresight has aided communication, understanding and collaboration across geographical and organisational boundaries that would otherwise have been difficult to bridge.

31. How could foresight network/cluster facilities? Pre-Foresight Recruitment Generation Action Renewal • Since the network/cluster could become a large facility even with pan-European significance, regular strategic thinking exercises should be conducted for: • the identification of major breakthroughs in related fields that might require adjustments of the network/cluster’s vision. • This could be done by: • launching successive rounds of foresight • establishing a permanent horizon scanning unit • organising regular monitoring, evaluation and knowledge dissemination forums • Etc.

32. A Foresight Process…Selecting methods Most Foresight methods are NOT different from those used in other disciplines. Foresighters use to borrow and adapt methods from management, planning and social sciences. The uniqueness of “foresight methods” is the combination of: futures thinking; networking; and policy-making. From methods you think you know... …to methods you think you don’t know… …to methods you don’t know you don’t know… There are plenty of methods that can be used in Foresight Processes…

33. There are, of course, many other methods that can be used…33 methods classified by Type of Technique Source: R. Popper (2008)

34. The Foresight Diamond(methods by type of knowledge source) Strongly influenced by imagination FLACSO 2008 Focus on Scenarios Strongly influenced by experiences and knowledge sharing Strongly influenced by discussions and knowledge exchange Strongly influenced by facts & data

35. 9 methods 8 methods 7 methods 8 methods 6 methods vs. ? Building a Research Process (RP) Diamond

36. Methodology X (Forward) Wild cards SWOT Delphi Citizen Panel Expert Panel Evidence + Broad Expertise + Wild Creativity + Interaction + Local Expertise + Strategic Creativity Methodology X (Forward) Scanning Delphi Wild Cards Citizen panel Workshop-type activity aimed at identifying possible events which may challenge the occurrence of ‘highly probable’ situations. Large-scale exploratory study assessing the likeliness of occurrence and possible impacts of main issues highlighted by the scanning activity. Internal activity (possibly desk-work) aimed at synthesising outcomes in terms of current strengths and weaknesses as well as future opportunities and threats. Conference-type activity aimed at identifying major public concerns on critical issues. Reduced group of key stakeholders looking at future implications of main findings. Expert panel Detailed analysis of main issues around a particular sector/theme of study (sub-contracted). Scanning SWOT

37. Methodology X (Backward) Wild cards Delphi Citizen Panels Expert Panels Scanning Strategic Creativity + Local Expertise + Interaction + Wild Creativity + Broad Expertise + Evidence Methodology X (Backward) SWOT Expert panels SWOT Citizen panels Wild Cards Internal activity aimed at identifying the success or failure of similar policy recommendations being implemented in comparable contexts, and better informing decision-making. Groups of experts looking at future implications of SWOT findings and clustering main issues into broader dimensions, such as social, technological, economic, etc. Regional task forces contextualising main issues and evaluating public acceptance. Large-scale normative study aimed at formulating policy recommendations. Delphi internal activity aimed at identifying disruptive events and situations. Scanning Large-scale activity (e.g. workshop) aimed at identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats related to a sector / theme / technology / etc.

38. SCOPE 2015Scenarios for Research and technology development cooperation with Europe EU-LA COOPERATION http://prest.mbs.ac.uk/prest/SCOPE

39. Project context and objectives Scenarios of future science and technology developments in developing countries 2015 Project supported by DG Research Directorate K-2 Science and Technology Foresight Objectives To produce scenarios for the year 2015 focused on contextualised S&T developments in selected regions of developing countries; To analyse the consequences of the scenarios for Europe and European RTD policy; To use the above to provide advice to the European Union in the field for RTD policies in relation to developing countries.

40. Regions and selected countries

41. Regional Cooperation SCOPE 2015 LA countries (Argentina, Colombia, Chile and Venezuela) prepared a common scenario for the future cooperation on Foresight activities under the framework of LARA(Latin American Research Area) 2015

42. Thematic Areas for Latin America Biotechnology on agro, health and clothing – e.g. genomic, proteomic ICT – software, services, applications, cultural and artistic content, Communication, Informatics Microelectronics, bioinformatics Natural resources and environmental sciences – e.g. environmental certification of agro-processes, Biodiversity Health Agro-science and agriculture - Food engineering and technology, Food security Energy and gas, nuclear technology Material Sciences - metals, polymers, nanotechnology Natural products – leather, textiles and wood Aquaculture and fishing Space technology Clean technologies – for bio-products and bio-processes Mining Transport Fine chemistry Process engineering Electronics EU PriorityThemes • Health • Food, agro & biotechnology • ICT • Nanotech. • Energy • Environment • Transport • Socio-economic • Security and space

43. Socio-economic Themes for LA Regional and territorial integration problems Internal exclusion problems learning from EU experiences with NMS Social inclusion Social innovation Economy & sociology of technological change Work and employment Entrepreneurship

45. Forms of cooperation Strengthening the SMEs especially building capacities (creativity, innovation, design) of human resources Technological transfer Building research capabilities mobility programmes Building capabilities of primary education educators Recognising labs and certificates of the countries Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds Creating markets and investments

46. Actions that needs to be taken Targeting society’s needs Reaching society Mapping and exploiting regional needs and commonalities Strengthening the SMEs Technological transfer Recognising labs and certificates of the countries Creating a joint observatory for S&T and funds Creating markets and investments Creating content and information in Spanish to build Web-based knowledge pool

47. ESCENARIOS 2020 Cooperación en Prospectiva Euro-latina Octubre 23, 2008 Flacso – Ciudad de México

48. Agenda 12:30 Construcción de grupos y dinámica del seminario-taller (5 minutos) 12:35 Ejes para la construcción de escenarios de articulación y cooperación entre la UE y ALC (10 minutos) 12:45 Primera Parte: Elaboración de Escenarios de éxito (60 minutos) Priorización y pertinencia de factores retardadores y aceleradores del cambio (30 minutos) Diseño de Indicadores de logro y estrategias (45 minutos). 16:30 Segunda parte: Presentación de resultados en plenaria

49. ROLES Each group should appoint a chair and a rapporteur. Either or both of these people may be responsible for writing notes onto whiteboards and flip charts, etc. Chair’s role: to keep the break-out groups to their task; to ensure that all participants have a say and that people are not being excluded due to other people’s forcefulness or superior status, to defuse conflicts. Rapporteur’s role: to keep notes on the process and decisions, and be prepared to report these back to the workshop. Please make brief presentations – 5 minutes at the absolute maximum. Discussion at this point should be mainly a matter of clarification and points of information. Everybody’s role: Remember that you are being asked to participate as an individual, not a representative of an organisation. Please talk on the basis of your views, your knowledge. One ground-rule of Foresight work is that remarks are not attributed to individuals, and people should be free to express their views (and argue about each other’s views, in the spirit of constructive dialogue!). Of course, due attribution and thanks should be provided (unless requested otherwise) for work carried out, data provided, statistical analysis, etc.

50. Instrucciones 1. Cada grupo elaborará un escenario de éxito dentro de la situación establecida. En cada uno de ellos deberá indicar: (15 min) actores (15 min) mecanismos de cooperación y organización (15 min) temas y focos de trabajo (15 min) factores direccionadores del escenario (LA; EU; EU-LA) (15 min) implicaciones y grandes preguntas. 2. Luego cada grupo deberá generar estrategias para el desarrollo de una serie de factores claves en la gestión de la cooperación: limitantes (frenos) y aceleradores del cambio (motores). Las estrategias deberán disminuir la influencia de los factores limitantes y potenciar la influencia de los factores aceleradores. Los grupos podrán escoger factores pertinentes al caso mexicano dentro de la lista suministrada a modo de ejemplo, o podrán incluir sus propios factores.