Foresight Tools & Focus on Scenarios for 3 Horizons: 2020-2050

1. Foresight Tools & Focus on Scenarios for 3 Horizons 2020 - 2025 - 2035 - & 2050 i.e. 5; 15; 30 years AdjunctProfessor Jack E. Smith, CEO TFCI Canada Inc. & Telfer School of Management, University of Ottawa jesmith@telfer.uottawa.ca.

2. Face the Future “The only relevant discussions about the future are those where we succeed in shifting the question from whether something will happen to what would we do if it did happen.” Arie de Geus, Principal in Royal Dutch Shell Group PlanningArchitect of Energy Futures Scenarios Why? Because change is constant

3. 30 Years Ago – 1989……. • USSR, Cold War, Berlin Wall ready to fall ,but a,most nobody ( except young Gemans) believes it could happpen; • Darpa [- Net – NSF; no www ; no internt;no; search engines ; no Google no Amazon, • Human Genome Project envisioned by2000.. • New words for science: nano; cyberspace; digital; sustainability • Ecological action focus: leaded gas; CFCs acid rain • First generation ( 1 G = analog) cell phones not smart; but mobile & wirekllesssl; gendeai on 0 )_atuiiin n;portsabkle but ly qkerd

4. What is Foresight? A set of strategic tools that support government and industry decisions with adequate lead time for societal preparation and strategic response. Key Attributes • Anticipates multiple, plausible futures – i.e. neither prediction nor forecasting of probabilities • 5 – 25 year time horizon- usual is 10-15 • A rehearsal for potential but contingent futures • Accommodates uncertainty & diversity • Highlights emerging opportunities & threats

5. European Foresight Definitions European Commission FORESIGHT is a participative approach to creating shared long-term visions to inform short-term decision-making processes. http://www.foresight-network.eu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=13&Itemid=52 ForeLearn Future oriented thinking is vital for any forward planning or policy activity to be able to meet future challenges proactively. Foresight enhances such thinking by gathering anticipatory intelligence from a wide range of knowledge sources in a systematic way and linking it to today's decision making.

6. Public Foresight Applications • Energy & Environment Scenarios– Royal Dutch Shell, Industry Canada, Natural Resources Canada, British Petroleum, International Energy Agency, World Business Council Sustainable Development; APEC CTF; • Investment in Next Generation Technologies: Finland, Germany, France, Ireland, Japan, Korea, ( TFCI – Canada ) • Complex Multi-Sectoral Policy Issues– e.g. infectious diseases, obesity & health; coastal zones, convergent technologies, next economic paradigm; UK Foresight, UNESCO; European Community, Policy Horizons Canada, Health Canada; APEC CTF • Global Security & Asymmetric Threats– US National Intelligence Council; Department Homeland Security, NATO, Defence R&D Canada – Public Safety Canada Centre for Security Science, Canadian Food Inspection Agency;

7. Global Foresight Sources

8. Engages:multiplestakeholders Prepares:for change Activates:early-warningradar Removes:currentconstraints Educates:leaders &public Identifies:critical S&T Foresight Outcomes & Benefits Better decisions, more robust policy, targeted research and insightful analysis

9. 1 nm Foresight Helps Decision-makers By.. • Revealing prospective new issues, challenges-threats, stakeholders, or shifts in alignments of influential players; • Identifying needs for new skills, knowledge and capabilities; • Highlighting new, weak signals that can become pivotal in the future, and potentially disruptive surprises, technologies; • Demonstrating current regulatory weaknesses – zones where failure to prepare can bring severe consequences; • Can be used to determine S&T, R&D priorities, strategic technology investment domains and critical sectors; • Exposing the limits of current policies, gaps that should be filled; • Delivering intelligence on emerging business and market opportunities, new foreign strengths and players; • Providing alerts about threats, complex situations and organizational vulnerabilities – allowing time to adapt

10. Manchester Foresight Framework

11. Top 10 Foresight Tools • Environmental Scanning • Delphi Probing • Scenario Planning • Technology – Innovation Mapping • Technology Road-Mapping • Expert Technical Panels • Web Virtual Conferences • FOR-CI-BA: Combining Foresight & Competitive Technical Intelligence & Business Analytics • Computerized Modelling and Dynamic Simulation • Integral Systemic Futures

12. Brockman’s Big Challenges: The Next 50 Years • Cybersphere: information beams, portable tele-connection & ubiquitous smart networks; Singularity dynamics • Bio-engineering & bio-robotics, astro-biology, personal genomics & embryo simulation, artificial life models; xeno transplantation • Quantum math & computing, teleportation, computational and emergent complexity; • Search for ETI and biophilic universes; • Neuro-sentience/AI& convergent cognition, computational pharmacology, neuro-regeneration • Sub-terranean thermophilogy & Triphibious flexible transport • Nano-structural products and processes sensors, materials, fabrication and molecular tailoring

13. Foresight Development Process Define Project Topic Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Populate Each Scenario Identify Change Drivers Backcast to Present Select Critical Drivers Synthesis & Recommendations Identify Scenarios

14. Foresight To Strategy Process Foresight Insights & Learning Review Backcast for Leverage Points Identify Strategic Goals, Problems Address Challenge Questions, e.g why us? Engage Stakeholders Prospective Roles & Solutions Make Choices, Commit to Actions Formulate Robust Strategies ( How) Success & Performance Measures Revisit Strategies, Goals

15. Wildcard Scenario X Today Scenario A Robust Strategies and Breakthrough Actions Area of Plausible Futures Scenario B Scenario C Wildcard Scenario Y How do we mobilize, inspire and align our talents and assets to create the envisaged opportunities and realize the innovations necessary? Today Tomorrow Identifying Robust Strategies

16. Environmental Scan: STEEP Map

17. Foresight Trends Discernible gradual patterns that are slowly but pervasively causing change e.g. population aging; decline in state sovereignty; complexity of military options; new world-order: politico-military alliances; Islam-West cultural gaps; space and cyber conflicts; more nuclear equipped nations; more humanitarian demands; inter-state migration; failing states proliferation; shift to digital technology. ````Trends impact all scenarios. These are the broad forces behind change, Most stakeholders are relatively powerless to affect the trend so trends tend to endure as influential shapers for at least 3 – 5 years until succeeded by others.

18. e.g. Some Macro Shaping Trends For each – describe two-three implications for change in your world • Demographic, wealth shifts in West & world, BRICs-NICs – after boomers; • Ambient Intelligence; Ai & Internet of Things – toward the Singularity • Global Anxiety – from Global Warming-Climate Change to Terrorism • Miniaturization , Automation (Robotics) of Hardware , Machines • Socialization of Peer-to-Peer Power in Software Networks • Globalization of Capital, Terror , Disease, Eco-Environment • Anti-globalization of Biodiversity, Culture, Sustainability • De-Carbonization & Efficiency/Renewables for Energy • Harmonization - Standardization for Trade • Convergence of Info-Nano-Bio-Cogno Science • Intensification, Differentiation, of Wealth • Transformation of Infrastructure Systems • Acceleration of Knowledge Economy • Proliferation of Surveillance - Security • Urbanization-Migration, Multi-Culturalism of Populations • Virtualization, Digitization & Integrationof: Business-Professions, Production, Communications, Entertainment, Education • Automation; Propagation; of vehicles & drones for transport & deliveries

19. e.g. EcoTrend : Shifts in Environmental Determinants • Hydrogen production from algae-bacteria; solar PV; • Conflicts over water and emerging nano filtration • Nuclear power or oil FOR power • Global environmental • management corporations • Arable land becomes salty, while progress is made on saline farming

20. Foresight Critical Drivers Factors and uncertainties that create or drive change - that may be adapted by or strongly impact stakeholders, sometimes rapidly e.g. dynamics pushing global society and security; political geometry; climate policies and resource practices; major S&T developments and their societal impacts; new international agreements and strategic S&T investments; new versions of enabling technologies and significant S&T breakthroughs. These are areas that change from year to year and may be amenable to stakeholder actions and strategic choices by way of investments, new alignments, infrastructure, R&D, innovations. Which axes are most uncertain? i.e. by being both important and by having the most divergent polarities.

21. e.g.Environmental Crises • Warnings of a global fisheries collapse (by 2050) of all species if fishing continues at its current pace.” – Achim Steiner U.N. Environment Program 2006; • Ground-based astronomy may become impossible by 2050 because of pollution and climate change.” – Prof. Gerry Gilmore 2006; • World wide, forests will continue to shrink at a rate of 1 soccer pitch every 2 seconds • Polar ice cap appears to be melting at a rate of Lake Superior/year

22. e. g. Global Demographics • 2011: 7.0B ++++ • 2050: 9.2B OR ???? • Declining birth rates in west and newly industrialized world; • Zero population growth birth rates in North America; less in some European nations • Age extension, more centurions • urban dwellers out number rural dwellers

23. e.g.Global Disease • Key Challenges: • Water, Alzheimer’s , Obesity Effects • HIV/AIDS; climate impacts and habitat displacements • Virus cross-over • Bio-terror agents are zoonotic • Since 1985, 38 new human pathogens have emerged • 1,400 pathogens cause human disease

24. Shocks & Wild Cards High impact, low probability events and situations that alter the fundamentals, create new infrastructure demands and usually shift societal priorities. What would be 2-3 plausible shocks or topic relevant wild cards? e.g. Gulf Stream shift; nuclear bomb; fusion power; major earthquakes-tsunamis, infectious global pandemic; fertility decline; cyber collapse; human ageing breakthrough; solar flare, asteroid impacts; financial collapse; sustained deflation; autonomous computers These are the unpredictable but life altering events and situations that create new challenges and opportunities that most stakeholders have not considered orprepared for.

25. Categories of trends Conflict Demographics Economy Energy & Environment Culture/Identity = Science & Technology = Global Futures Forum Shocks • Relative impact and likelihood out to 15 years 2 3 4 5 High Nuclear event Loss of U.S. control of the commons Pandemic Large scale cyber attack 4 Security / Defense Implication Disruption of oil infrastructure Loss of confidence In DoD capabilities Collapse of strategic state 3 Medium High Medium Probability Source; US Dept of Defence

26. Part 2: Scenario Futures

27. Foresight Development Process Define Project Topic Review Current Situation Identify Key Lenses Answer Challenge Questions Populate Each Scenario Identify Change Drivers Backcast to Present Select Critical Drivers Synthesis & Recommendations Identify Scenarios

28. Benefits of Collaboration • Reveal intelligence and knowledge gaps • Build alliances to leverage capabilities • Leverage complimentary competencies • Scope impact horizons and anticipate disruptive technologies • Anticipate ongoing Program Review • Identify new clients and industry partners • Plan for S&T capacity adjustments

29. 7 Scenario Purposes • Tracking emergence & prospective impacts of influential trends & technologies • Informing R&D planners, policy makers • Engaging, coalescing strategic thinking • Elucidation of unseen connections, new insights • Evaluating & comparing a range of scenarios to assess robustness of technologies • Facilitating long term R&D and strategic investments • Imagining future knowledge & skills needs, job shifts

30. Scenario Planning Rigorous Approach For • Managing uncertainties surrounding investment choices • Exploring alternative environments, multiple futures • Focusing on plausible rather than predicted outcomes • Identifying robust problem-solving, adaptive strategies • testing which will work “No Matter How The Future Unfolds”: readiness what if and how would we …… Typically Chosen When • Ambiguity in the operating environment is high • Pace of change and degree of turmoil is accelerating • Planning horizon stretches out to 10 years or more • Stakeholders are able to manage complex, contingent situations and formulate strategies • These strategies are aimed at preparedness and identifying opportunity within the accepted uncertainty represented by the divergence of the scenarios

31. Stories With Implications Rich context, relevant to stakeholders Provocative diversity = real alternatives Relate to perceived needs & opportunities Designate some edges – choices, boundaries Consider also the opposites - + and - Critical Parameters 4-7 is best, > 10 confuses + Plots are useful when transparent, Scenarios should be consistently structured, concise Focus is to engage key stakeholders Engage in: what if rather than whether things will occur Challenges-evidence tests may be useful between scenarios Evocative names help recognition & thematic links Scenario Basics

32. “EventHorizon” Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) Public suspiciousof alternatives D1 Everythingout-of-control A D2 CurrentSituation “EventHorizon” Level of AnimalOptimization:HIGH (manyalternativesto MAD) Level of AnimalOptimization:LOW (totally MAD) E F B C Extreme regulation,industry collapse Healthy & SecureWorld Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed)

33. Animal Health Scenarios - A Public Axiety: HIGH (stressed) Scenario(A) • Low levels of trust among all stakeholders • Fear of disclosure by producers • Short-term fixes, sacrificial lambs • Communications is PR-driven; spin vs. science • Constant crisis management; public unrest • Secrecy & lack of transparency • Industry bailouts vs. investment in alternatives • Lack of leadership & responsibility • Agri-industry drops best practices – poor ROI • Unstable animal & public health infrastructures Level of AnimalOptimization:LOW (totally MAD)

34. Animal Health Scenarios - B • Governments in total control – ‘Big Brother’/’Nanny Society’ • Emphasis on ‘zero-risk’ food supply • Multi-national producers move off-shore • Urban media demands government action • Dissolution of stakeholder partnerships • Low-intensity agriculture emerges in N.America • Trade protectionism among G8 competitors • MAD alternatives are not developed Level of AnimalOptimization:LOW (totally MAD) Scenario(B) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed)

35. Animal Health Scenarios - C Scenario(C) Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) • No trust of the food system or government • Very rapid adoption of new technologies • Disconnect between public and science • Belief that industry decisions driven by economics • Cherry-picking evidence to suit outcomes • Media is perceived as enemy by industry & govt. – fanning public fear • Science education not highly valued • Communications driven by industry & govt. – “spin” • Public feels loss of control Level of AnimalOptimization:HIGH (manyalternativesto MAD)

36. Animal Health Scenarios - D • Transparency (real & perceived) • Effective & consistent communications channels • Good infrastructure for fast crisis management • Spectrum of ‘smart’ applications (eg bio-sensors) • Convergence of human and animal health • Buy-in to concept of adaptive risk management • International collaboration & containment • Strong relations among all stakeholders • Agri-industry self-regulates & takes leadership role • Strategic investment & adoption of technology Level of AnimalOptimization:HIGH (manyalternativesto MAD) Scenario(D) Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed)

37. Animal Health Scenario Strategies I “Failure”Scenario Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) “EventHorizon” CurrentSituation Level of AnimalOptimization:HIGH (manyalternativesto MAD) • Global network for epi-predictive modeling • Technology-enabled mini-MAD adopted locally • Global Knowledge Web set up & funded by G8 – includes : Public Health (convergence) • IT developed and installed by private sector • Incentives to share data & report disease • International expert teams – funded on proactive research “Optimum”Scenario

38. Animal Health Scenario Strategies IIeduce Public Anxiety • New animal products are linked to public health • Tracking technologies become ubiquitous • Consumers empowered to make informed decisions • New media used for risk communications • World Conference – global food safety • Animal rights organizations involved in solutions • Public trust building – listening, transparency Scenario(A) Public Anxiety: HIGH (stressed) “EventHorizon” CurrentSituation Public Anxiety: LOW (relaxed) “Optimum”Scenario

39. Applied Foresight: “MAD to AHO” • Foresight >> a new paradigm for managing outbreaks; • Shift from automatic mass animal disposal - MAD to risk management and animal health optimization – AHO; • Shared decisions with stakeholders = early action; • Convergence of animal and public health issues, challenges, S&T agendas; • Wider use of S&T recognized; • Stewardship and public communications are critical • Clear value of early warning-alerts-preparedness NRC-CFIA Canada-US Animal Health Foresight 39

40. Scenario BuildingASEAN Indonesia Food BEST • Implementation of Food Act No. 18, 2012 properly • Infractructure facilities to go to the field (improve the efficiency of the agriculture) • Land consolidation (small land don’t want to integrate with others, for a bigger land to cultivate to apply the machine) • Legal Farmer Association (better bargaining power to compete with the market) • Improve awareness /knowledge of the people (ASEAN, open markets, people awareness to have good food ) WORSE • Unemployment will be increased (increase the wage, using automatic machines) • Policy (1,000 SMEs from thailand, Indonesia don’t have a right policy, lack coordiation btw mins • Lack of education • Government regulation have to be changed (Bank policy how to help 17 millions SMEs in Food sector, because of indonesian food are not accepted in EU markets) • Environmental Declination

41. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

42. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

43. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

44. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

45. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

46. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

47. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU Indonesia Situation 2013 Preferred Situation 2020 • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

48. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU ASEAN Situation 2013 • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

49. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU Indonesia Situation 2013 ASEAN Situation 2013 Preferred Situation 2020 • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)

50. A: Riding the Waves (high) B: Rising Sea Storming Weather/ Turbulance • Natural disaster • Lack of awareness of farmers on Post-Harvest losses • environmental factors are worsening • Infrastructure investment anticipate climate impact • production costs low, but raising • vulnerable to climate • Climate Change Impact high • Combine social economic and environmental uncertainty high • Lack of coordination btw institutions • Competing policy and institution agenda • Conflicted Gov. Environmental quality / Climate Production input • Education • Climate impact • Highly Volatile,labor uncertainty, shortage of water, raw material, land, energy ASEAN Situation 2020 BAU Indonesia Situation 2020 BAU Indonesia Situation 2013 ASEAN Situation 2013 Preferred Situation 2020 AVOIDED Situation 2020 • Social riot • Gap of BOP, widen • (without environmental pressure) • (suprising impact) • Subsidy Policy on Chemical Fertilizer, Pesticides • flexibility equal/ low • Stable production • Low anxiety (people happy) • (able to cope with climate impact) • government knows best (take care people) • Strong government support (for food production, climate change readiness, implement of Food Act No.18/ 2012) C:Storm is Coming D: Easy Sailing (Prefer Scenario) (low)