National Perspectives on Disciplinary Health Trends

1. National Perspectives on Disciplinary Health Trends Christopher M. Keane American Geological Institute 25-26 February 2005 Williamsburg, VA

2. Disciplinary Health • Facets of the discipline • Departments • Primary industries • Government • Secondary Industries • Economic growth across sectors • Steady human resource pipeline • Public acknowledgement • University departments are lynchpin in the supply chain

3. How are the geosciences doing? • How do we define doing “well” • Is our perspective domestic or global? • Probably are doing better than expected! • Departments are changing • Not all change is successful • Biggest question is “market rationalization”

4. Self-Selecting Department Categories • Major research departments • Traditionally strong programs • Comprehensive with history of strong geoscience • “Second-tier” state and private departments • Apparent peak risk-group • 4-Year schools finding way between education and research • Traditional B.S. granting departments • Long tradition of successful programs • Focus on educating, not training • Community Colleges • Appear not to be making as big as expected impact • Majority of recent closures and consolidations

5. What changes are afoot? Statistical Profile of Academic Geoscience

6. US Geoscience Student EnrollmentUndergraduate and Graduate Levels, 1955-2003 40000 35000 Undergraduate 30000 25000 20000 Majors 15000 10000 Graduate 5000 0 1990 1955 1960 1970 1980 2000 Year

7. Total Degrees in Geoscience1973-2002 8000 7000 BS MS PhD 6000 5000 Degrees 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Year

8. Female Geoscience Enrollment and Degrees 1974-2002 45 40 Enrolled 35 30 Percent Female Graduated 25 20 15 10 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Year

9. Geoscience Theses & Dissertation Topics1950s vs 1980s Environmental/Hydro Economic Geology 1950-59 Geochemistry 1980-89 Geophysics Igneous/Metamorphic Stratigraphy/Paleo Sedimentary Geology Structure/Tectonics Other 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Number of Theses and Dissertations AGI 1991

10. 3000 2500 Year # of Depts 1970 698 1980 704 1990 887 1997 915 2000 Number of Faculty Reporting 1500 1000 500 0 General Structure Petrology Economic Geophysics Paleontology Geochemistry Environmental Oceanography AGI 1997 Geoscience Faculty Specialties1970-1997

11. Solid Earth Environmental Physical Science Departmental “Focus”U.S. BS-Degree Granting 700 600 500 400 Departments 300 200 100 0 1980 1990 2000 Year

12. Solid-Earth Environmental Physical Science Departmental “Focus”U.S. MS-Degree Granting 350 300 250 200 Departments 150 100 50 0 1980 1990 2000 Year

13. Solid-Earth Environmental Physical Science Departmental “Focus”U.S. Ph.D.-Degree Granting 250 200 150 Departments 100 50 0 1980 1990 2000 Year

14. Departmental Closures • 70 Departments have closed or merged since 1999 • Large number of community college programs have dropped geoscience • Wholesale changing to environmental programs predict demise? • Political instability allows for “fiscal management”

15. Degree-Granting Diversity Ph.D. Ph.D. Ph.D. MS MS MS BS BS BS 1990 1980 2000 Departments granting over 25% of all degrees Departments granting the second quartile of all degrees Departments granting the second half of all degrees 100 Departments

16. Diversity of Faculty Origins • All-Time Diversity • 50% of Faculty from 40 Departments • 25% of Faculty from 12 Departments • 1980 • 50% - 39 Departments • 25% - 12 Departments • 1990 • 50% - 40 Departments • 25% - 13 Departments • 2000 • 50% - 39 Departments • 25% - 12 Departments

17. All-Time California (Berkeley) MIT Columbia Washington Wisconsin Stanford Penn State Illinois Arizona Harvard California (Los Angeles) Michigan 2000 Arizona MIT Texas Columbia Wisconsin Georgia Minnesota Stanford Delaware California (Los Angeles) Michigan Florida Graduate Schools of FacultyFirst quartile of production

18. Introductory Geoscience Enrollments 2004 • Totals from AGI Survey on US Enrollment in intro geoscience • 114,295 in Physical Geology or equiv. • 22,912 in Environmental Geology • 3,631 in National Park Geology • Publishers cite ~225,000 intro geoscience books per year • With 34% response rate, publisher’s numbers are probably accurate • Consider this: • Over 1 million current college students have taken geoscience (6% of the total) • Only 0.1% of college students are geoscience majors today!

19. Where do students take intro geoscience? • Community College • 15% of all responding departments • Teach 12.5% of intro students • Non-Ph.D. 4-Year Departments • 58% of all responding departments • Teach 61% of intro students • Ph.D Granting Departments • 26% of responding departments • Teach 26.5% of intro students

20. How does this reflect “out there” The statistics for the other 99.95% of the geoscience economy

21. Occupations of Geoscience Degree Holders 1993 Medical OTHER 1% 15% Finance 1% Legal 1% Geosciences 35% Other Sci & Eng 4% Technology 5% Sci/Eng Tech 6% Agriculture 3% Env/Civil Eng Business 3% 14% Insurance K12 Ed 3% Higher Ed NSF, 1993 4% 5%

22. Degree Fields for Working Geoscientists1993 Business/Finance 1% Other Phys. Sci Law Bioscience 2% 0% 2% Agriculture 3% Engineering 8% Mathematics 2% Geography 2% Geoscience 80% NSF, 1993

23. US Geoscience EmploymentAGI Demographic Survey 1986 Other Academic Retired/Unemployed 5% 7% 10% Government Environmental 12% 7% Mining 9% Petroleum 50% Total Population 120,000

24. US Geoscience EmploymentNSF National Survey of College Graduates 1993 Academic Retired/Unemployed 11% 23% Government Petroleum 12% Environment Mining 34% 12% 7% Total Population 125,000

25. US Geoscience EmploymentAGI Demographic Survey 2000 Other Unemployed/Retired 6% 6% Petroleum 30% Academia 20% Mining 8% Government Environmental 16% 14%

26. 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 Billions of Dollars 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 0.00 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year The Geoscience Economy Oil/Gas Environmental Academic R&D Coal Mining Fed R&D Source: US BEA/NSF

27. GeoNP vs. GNP 150 10000 9000 140 GNP 8000 130 7000 6000 Billions of Dollars (Geo) 120 5000 GeoNP Billions of Dollars (GNP) 110 4000 3000 100 2000 90 1000 80 0 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year Source: US BEA/NSF

28. The Geoscience Bachelor’s Degree • Over 50% of Geoscience BS recipients go onto other fields • Employment value of BS in the Geosciences is far below other physical sciences and engineering Sources: AGI, 2002, AIP, 2003

29. Geoscience Master’s Degree • Degree of choice for employment • Unique in the physical sciences • Salary Range is $25K-$69K • Mean salary is $38K • 0.5% failed to find employment upon graduation • 82% of programs focus on Ph.D. preparation, yet…. • Only 28% go on to Ph.D. program Sources: AGI, 2003

30. Geoscience Ph.D. Degree • Excellent employment and job satisfaction • >97% find suitable employment • 54% going onto PostDocs • Wide range of average salaries • $35K for PostDoc • $42K for Faculty position • $49K for Government • $69K for Industry Sources: AGI/AGU, 2003

31. Future Directions • Defining B.S. Degree as “liberal” science degree • Better develop MS programs as professionally preparatory • Provide opportunities at Ph.D. level for non-traditional careers

32. What is the role of departments? • Train for careers in the geosciences • Core departments do this well • Professional opportunities are not unlimited • Educate the broad public • 4-year programs do this well • Is this sufficient value to administrators? • Provide support services for university community • Does existing in the shadows avoid targeting or make one expendable