Advancing Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies

1. Annotated Draft for Discussion Advancing Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies Jeremy Pittman Adaptation on the Canadian Prairies Forum – February 2012 Prairies Regional Adaptation Collaborative

2. Purpose • To review preliminary findings and ensure proper interpretation • To gain feedback on the Annotated Draft Report

3. Introduction to the project • Prairies-level synthesis for PRAC: • Complementary to ongoing provincial-level syntheses • SK: Rescan • AB: J.H. Archibald Consulting • MB: International Institute for Sustainable Development • Aimed at the Prairies Region as a whole

4. Overview • Synthesis of Lessons Learned • Current Context for Adaptation • Institutional Arrangements • Priority Areas and Actions • Barriers and Challenges • Approaching Adaptation Effectively

5. What we’ve done so far • Review of PRAC projects • Full or draft reports, when possible • Project update summaries in other cases • Archibald (2012) for AB projects • Synthesis of Lessons Learned • Based on key findings from the PRAC projects • Relevance to policy, programs or operations

6. What we’ve done so far • Engagement of provincial and federal decision makers • Semi-structured interviews; open-ended questions • Interview notes analyzed using latent content analysis • Key themes in relation to each topic area were identified

7. Who we talked to • There were 32 interviews in total for this project, in addition to: • 11 interviews for the Saskatchewan Synthesis • 3 focus groups for the Alberta Synthesis (Archibald 2012) • This resulted in the following representation • Alberta: SRD, ARD, AEW • Saskatchewan: SWA, MoA, MoE, MoH, MHI, SRC • Manitoba: MCWS, MIT, MAFRI, MLG • Federal: NRCan, EC, AANDC, AAFC • Other RACs: BC, QC, Atlantic

8. Lessons Learned • Focus on: • Climate Monitoring and Information Systems • Water Management • Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Forest Ecosystem Management • Municipal and Community Resilience

9. Climate Monitoring and Information Systems • Saskatchewan • Agricultural: P–PET, precipitation deciles/percentiles, and SPI • Hydrological: Streamflow/reservoir/lake percentiles and SPI • Need to take a multi-indicator approach • Develop a network of networks Source: Quiring 2011

10. Water Management • Prairies Region • Long-term cycles are present in streamflow records, but trends are consistent with climate warming • Risk of severe drought in the future is apparent from analyses of tree-rings, model simulations and cycles of streamflow variability • Adaptation to short-term wet/dry cycles has been fairly successful; addressing risks from long-term wet/dry cycles and climate change likely requires further adaptation Sources: Axelson et al. 2009; Lapp et al. 2010; St. Jacques et al. 2011; Wittrock et al. 2011; Rescan 2011

11. Water Management • Prairies Region • Future drought risks will be amplified in some cases by projected water demand (economic growth) • Recognition of cycles in Saskatchewan’s climate can help inform risk management at multiple timescales • Managing future risks should be done assuming non-stationarity Sources: Axelson et al. 2009; Lapp et al. 2010; St. Jacques et al. 2011; Wittrock et al. 2011; Kulshreshtha, pers. comm.

12. Water Management • Alberta • Annual stream flows in the South Saskatchewan River Planning Area are expected to change +5% to -30% due to climate change. An additional reduction of 25% or more in dry years is expected. • Saskatchewan • PRAC hydroclimate variability analyses conducted by PARC helped inform the development of the Emergency Flood Damage Reduction Program in 2011, which was designed to proactively manage excessive moisture risk.

13. Water Management • Manitoba • Hydrologic projections for the Assiniboine River watershed indicate no significant changes to the magnitude or variability of streamflow, but there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with these projections • Municipal and irrigation water use is expected to increase, even more so in the context of climate change. Other uses, such as industrial, recreational, and the La Salle Diversion, are expected to remain relatively similar to existing levels Sources: Stantec and Genivar 2012

14. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Prairies Region • Shifting vegetation zones in relation to shifting moisture regimes • Average reductions to grassland production are expected to be minor in magnitude; inter-annual variability and extremes are likely to be significantly more problematic • Changes to biodiversity as some species are likely more competitive under changing conditions than others Sources: Thorpe 2011

15. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Saskatchewan • Within existing suite of programs, some directly improve capacity to deal with climate-related risks (FRWIP, BRM, ADMP) • Other programs have co-benefits that improve adaptive capacity (FSP, EFP, AEGP) • Mainstreaming within existing programs is likely an efficient way to approach adaptation in the short-term • A mix of proactive and reactive programming is likely going to be necessary to deal with future climate risks Sources: IISD 2011; Steinley and Mowenchenko 2011; AWSA 2011; SCCWS 2011; NSRBC 2011; Thompson 2011a; 2011b

16. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Manitoba • Excessive moisture management will require: • Better attuning policies and programs to local hydroclimate in the short-term • Review and evaluation of current and historical policies in the medium-term • Ensuring program flexibility and innovation in the long-term • Vulnerability for both cattle and forage production is high, with high risks from extreme events and disease outbreaks leading to reduced economic stability and coping capacity Sources: MMM 2012

17. Forest Ecosystem Management • Alberta • High priority risks from climate change to Alberta’s forest sector include: drought; reduced timber supply; increased damage from pests and fires; and decreased regeneration potential • The Climate Change Adaptation Framework is a useful and practical decision making tool

18. Municipal and Community Resilience • Manitoba • Adaptation opportunities in Manitoba’s municipal sector include: • promoting stakeholder awareness of climate change issues • pursuing integrated vulnerability and risk assessment • conserving and restore natural areas • coordinating land-use and watershed management plans; • increasing housing density to manage urban growth • developing long-term flood and drought preparedness plans • regionalizing water management services

19. Current Context for Adaptation • All provinces have made progress on adaptation and have tentative plans to prepare provincial adaptation frameworks, strategies or roadmaps • Some departments (e.g. MAFRI, Forest Services Branch MoE) are preparing adaptation strategies or undertaking risk assessments • PRAC helped develop collaborative networks, leverage resources, and raise the profile of adaptation • Federal departments are continuing work towards ongoing risk assessments, mainstreaming and expanding collaboration

20. Institutional Arrangements • Potential Roles in Adaptation • Collaboration and Partnerships • Effective Multi-level Governance

21. Potential Roles in Adaptation • Related to mandates and/or ongoing roles • Self-identified through interviews • For more info., see the Annotated Draft Report

22. Collaboration and Partnerships • Alberta • Alberta Climate Change Adaptation Team • Recognized need to broaden collaboration • horizontally within government • vertically with municipal, community and industry stakeholder groups • Ministries are at different stages Sources: Archibald 2012

23. Collaboration and Partnerships • Saskatchewan • To date, most collaboration related to adaptation has occurred through PRAC and further collaboration will likely be necessary to effectively deal with climate change • Through implementation of the PRAC program, the ground work has been completed for broadening the collaborative network within the province

24. Collaboration and Partnerships • Manitoba • PRAC has been the main catalyst for collaboration on adaptation • The need to further develop collaboration across government and with external stakeholders, such as communities, municipalities, Aboriginal groups, Conservation Districts, Planning Districts, industries and academics/researchers, is recognized

25. Collaboration and Partnerships • Interprovincial • Most effective in the following areas: • knowledge, practice and information sharing • collaborative research projects or research extension • sharing lessons learned from various studies • sharing manuals and approaches

26. Collaboration and Partnerships • Federal • Longstanding track record of broad collaboration on adaptation, internally and externally • Moving forward, expanding collaboration will be a priority

27. Effective Multi-level Governance for Adaptation • Need to expand engagement of communities, municipalities and industry to advance adaptation • e.g. Conservation Districts, Watershed Stewardship Associations, Planning Districts, municipal associations, NGOs, and industry associations • Working collaboratively to identify priorities for adaptation • Promoting education and awareness of climate change issues • Developing programs for incenting or facilitating adaptation.

28. Priority Areas and Actions • Climate Monitoring and Information Systems • Water Management • Agriculture and Grasslands Ecosystem Management • Forest Ecosystem Management • Expanding Priorities

29. Climate Monitoring and Information Systems • Saskatchewan • improving the monitoring network • providing broad access to data and information on climate • documenting information requirements of different groups

30. Water Management • Alberta • integrated risk assessment for water supplies • identifying adaptation options for emergency management • fostering broad awareness and engagement beyond the department and government • completing and translating baseline assessments of potential future climatic conditions for use in water management models Source: Archibald 2012

31. Water Management • Saskatchewan • developing water allocation policy that is effective in the context of climate change and economic development • developing hydrologic drought plans for major systems • improving the monitoring and reporting of water use • developing water conservation policy and programs

32. Water Management • Manitoba • integrating of climate change information into forecasting • identifying adaptation options for Red River Floodway operations • reviewing water supply using scenarios and understanding implications for water management • enhancing shoreline protection and flood control • developing an improved understanding of infrastructure options for managing extremes

33. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Alberta • developing rangeland management policy and programs that improve capacity to deal with climate extremes and variability • developing an improved understanding of the social and economic implications of climate change impacts and adaptation • increasing integrated modeling capacity • developing information systems to support adaptation Source: Archibald 2012

34. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Saskatchewan • identifying short-, medium- and long-term adaptation options • promoting long-term land use changes to support resilience • maintaining connections between native grasslands • integrating economics into adaptation options

35. Agriculture and Grassland Ecosystem Management • Manitoba • completing the MAFRI adaptation strategy • evaluating current programs and identifying opportunities for mainstreaming • identifying no-regrets beneficial management practices with a focus on co-benefits

36. Forest Ecosystem Management • Alberta • integrated modeling and identifying linkages with policy/operations • strategic regional land use planning and analysis • Saskatchewan • complete and implement draft strategy • Manitoba • vulnerability assessment of the Sandilands Forest

37. Expanding Priority Areas • Improved collaboration with First Nations and Métis • Infrastructure Risks and Resilience • Municipal and Community Resilience • Health Risks and Adaptation • Economic Tools for Adaptation • Broad Government Climate Risk Assessments

38. Barriers and Challenges • Alberta: • Low priority for adaptation • Limited resources • Misunderstanding of adaptation in high level decision making • Lack of senior level leadership on adaptation • Lack of political support for adaptation • Limited cooperation across departments. Source: Archibald 2012

39. Barriers and Challenges • Saskatchewan: • Low priority for adaptation • Limited resources • Unwillingness to work on adaptation • Adaptation being confused with mitigation • Expectations for climate change information that goes beyond defendable science • Uncertainty in forecasts and projections

40. Barriers and Challenges • Manitoba: • Low but climbing priority for adaptation • Lack of strategic direction • Culture of reactive versus proactive management • Limited resources • Lack of coordination between departments

41. Approaching Adaptation Effectively • Mainstreaming • Engaging High-level Decision Makers • Engaging Community and Industry Stakeholders • Framing Adaptation • Setting Goals and Objectives • Targeting Areas for Adaptation • Mobilizing Resources for Adaptation • Continuing Progress on Adaptation

42. Mainstreaming • Effective and efficient way of approaching adaptation • Numerous opportunities were identified • e.g. departmental business lines, existing policies and programs, and ongoing operations • Would require improved political support and broad departmental buy-in on adaptation

43. Engaging High-level Decision Makers • Need for better engagement in all jurisdictions • Help obtain political support • Raise the relative priority for adaptation

44. Engaging Industry and Community Stakeholders • Need to expand engagement in all jurisdictions • Engagement is at different stages • Facilitate and encourage autonomous and planned adaptation

45. Framing Adaptation • As efficiency, progress or innovation in practices and operations • With a focus on the expected or desired results • In relation to mainstreaming • By avoiding ‘doom and gloom’ • By highlighting how investments now can provide future savings • By using risk or context-specific terminology • In relation to existing priorities and co-benefits

46. Setting Goals and Objectives • Start with managing current vulnerabilities • Leveraging other existing priority issues • Working towards general resilience and adaptive capacity for a broad range of issues, impacts and stressors • Achievable in the short-term but benefits in the short- and long-term • Promoting ‘preparedness thinking’ but ensuring action occurs in the short-term • Engaging stakeholders in the ongoing definition of goals and objectives

47. Targeting Areas for Adaptation • Linking adaptation priorities with ongoing and emerging risks • Using existing sustainability indicators and criteria • Integrating risk and vulnerability assessment into operations • Monitoring and evaluating the outcomes

48. Mobilizing Resources for Adaptation • Collaboration is critical • Future application of scarce resources will require efforts to continue, maintain and expand collaboration

49. Continuing Progress on Adaptation • Using ongoing short-term climate risk management as an entry point for longer-term adaptation • Ensuring adaptation is effective not only for anthropogenic climate change but also natural variability (short- and long-term) and other potential drivers of change • Focusing on no-regrets and robust adaptation strategies • Fostering a broad acceptance of, and building capacity to manage, uncertainty • Encouraging education and awareness of climate change issues with younger generations

50. Next Steps • Receive and integrate feedback on the Annotated Draft Report • Triangulate and complement results with secondary sources • Prepare Full Draft Report • Receive feedback on Full Draft Report • Prepare Final Report