Recent Developments in Container Liner Shipping: Trends and Insights

1. Recent developments in container liner shipping Frans Waals Editor “DynaLiners” Senior Shipping Consultant

2. Dynamar Activities • Credit Risk AssessmentCredit Reports, Constant Monitoring • Marine IntelligenceMarine Investigation, Vessel Tracking • ConsultancyLiner, Container, Bulk • Shipping PublicationsDynaLiners, Container Trade Studies, Special Reports

3. Trades and liner services

4. World Container Trade

5. East West Trades TA E/FE TP TP E/FE

6. Parallel Trades TA E/FE TP Med/NA TP TP/USEC E/FE Med/FE

7. North South Trades TA E/FE TP Med/NA TP Mid East TP/USEC ISC E/FE Africa Med/FE Lat.Am Australasia

8. East West Volumes

9. FEFC – 1Q 2008 • Westbound, 11.9% growth in the first three months • Eastbound, 3.8% decline in the first two months

10. US Trades – Export • US exports booming • Especially to Europe, South America, ME and Africa

11. US Trades - Import • US imports declining, after strong earlier growth • Imports twice as big as exports • Especially from South America

12. Latin America • Europe average growth, Far East strong growth • Very imbalanced trades

13. Indian Sub Continent • Strong growth • Europe-ISC – balanced • Far East-ISC – large imbalance

14. Middle East • Average growth rates • Significant Imbalances

15. Australia • Average growth rates • Balanced trades • Low volumes

16. Africa • Europe average growth, Far East fairly high growth • Huge imbalances

17. East West Service developments • Transpacific • Reduction of number of services • More carriers cooperating through vessel sharing agreements • Long winter season, much temporary capacity reduction • Transatlantic • Reduction of number of services • Cooperating through vsa or slot charter agreements • Some carriers withdrawing completely • Europe/Mediterranean – Far East • Increasing number of services • Use of larger vessels • Introduction of mega container ships (10/15,000 TEU) • Focusing on serving specific areas (e.g. Black Sea) • Introducing more ships per service to save on fuel costs

18. North South Service developments • Latin America • Overcapacity • Carriers cooperating or withdrawing altogether • Indian Sub Continent • (Too?) many new services launched • Middle East • More direct services • Many feeder services • Australasia • Restructuring - new services started, existing disappearing (Far East trade) • Many vessel sharing agreement • Africa • Dedicated services to north coast from Far East, through transshipment in Med

19. Ports

20. Port Handlings

21. Multi-Millionaires • Shanghai to become world’s largest container port this year?? • Hong Kong stagnating, to be overtaken by Shenzhen soon • Dubai Soaring • Kaohsiung overtaken by other ports

22. China • All ports reporting strong growth • Even “smaller” port handle multi-million TEU

23. HLH range • Le Havre and Zeebrugge record strong growth • Other ports growing respectable 10-15% increases

24. US West Coast • Overall stagnating • Imports stabilizing • Exports booming • Empties significantly reduced

25. US West Coast - 1Q 2008 • Imports falling • Exports double-digit growth

26. US East Coast • Still growing • Significant differences by port

27. First 2008 developments • China • Continues fast growth • Europe • Modest growth (Antwerp and Rotterdam 6%) • USWC • Export booming, import declining, trade imbalance reducing • USEC • No figures available

28. Carriers and their fleets

29. Carrier fleet size

30. Fleet size compared

31. Consolidation

32. Total annual liftings

33. Liftings by East West Trade (2006)

34. Current ships size and order book

35. Forecasted Fleet Growth Assuming no scrapping!

36. ULCS (10,000+ TEU)

37. Freight and costs • Freight • USD falling – some carriers switching to Euro onspecific trades • Revenues increasing, though very trade related • Surcharges • Cost • Fuel costs are rocketing (>USD 500/tonne) • Charter hire increased, but more or less stabilised

38. THANK YOU!Question?