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Long-term Analysis of Global CO 2 Emission Reduction by Efficient Technologies

Long-term Analysis of Global CO 2 Emission Reduction by Efficient Technologies. Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI) Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.) Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.). International Energy Workshop July 6, 2005 Kyoto. Contents. Introduction Model Structure Case settings and presuppositions Results

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Long-term Analysis of Global CO 2 Emission Reduction by Efficient Technologies

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  1. Long-term Analysis of Global CO2 Emission Reduction by Efficient Technologies Yutaka NAGATA (CRIEPI) Katsura FUKUDA (MRI, Inc.) Yuko MORI (JKL, Inc.) International Energy Workshop July 6, 2005 Kyoto

  2. Contents • Introduction • Model Structure • Case settings and presuppositions • Results • CO2 emission • Technological change caused by CO2 constraint • Emission trading cost • Conclusions No time ! International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  3. Introduction • Effectuation of the Kyoto Protocol • Reducing CO2 emission by efficient technologies is the key • Combination with the flexible mechanisms (emission permit trading, JI, and CDM) is also important • This study analyzed the effect of efficient technologies quantitatively International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  4. Model structure Exogenous conditions Major Output Final energy demand (26 regions, 9 kinds) Installed capacity of energy technologies and their operation Transportation demand Discounted total energy supply cost until 2030 Production cost curves of resources METEO Energy prices (26 regions, 10 kinds) Technological and cost conditions of technology Primary energy demand (26 regions, 10 kinds) Constraint for new construction and CO2 CO2emissions and traded permits Cost of CO2 capture and sequestration (optional) International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  5. Characteristics of the METEO model • Dynamic optimization • Cost function of resource reserves • Price-induced energy conservation • Detailed treatment for load curve of electricity • Treats Asian countries in detail • 3 ways of technological change • mixture of power generation • fuel conversion • alternative fuel vehicles International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  6. Assumptions of production cost curve for fossil fuels Grade 10 Grade 9 Grade 8 Grade 7 Grade 6 Grade 5 Production Cost (1=Average Price) Grade 4 Grade 3 Grade 2 Grade 1 Production (1=Proved Reserves) International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  7. Regional division 5 Korea 19 Russia 17 OECD Europe 4 Japan 23 Canada 20 Former Soviet Republics 18 Non-OECD Europe 2 Hong Kong 24 USA 1 China 3 Taiwan 21 Middle East 25 Mexico 9 Philippines 13 India 12 Vietnam 22 Africa 10 Thailand 11 Brunei 7 Malaysia 6 Singapore 26 Latin America 15 Australia 8 Indonesia 16 New Zealand 14 Other Asia International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  8. Fuel conversion flow Coking Coal Iron & Steel Coal Coal Demand Gas Liquefaction Coal Liquefaction Vaporization of LNG Coal Gasification Gas Demand Natural Gas Oil Refinery LPG Gasoline Naphtha Gas Oil Fuel Oil LPG Demand Crude Oil Naphtha Demand Biomass Power Generation Coal Power Oil Power Gas Power Biomass Power Nuclear power Hydro Power Geothermal Power Solar Power Wind Power Gasoline Demand Nuclear GTL Diesel Oil Demand Hydro DME Geothermal Fuel Oil Demand Solar Electricity Demand Wind International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  9. Case settings Countries which have no obligation and not ratified Annex-I are assumed to have same amounts of emission credits in the BAU case. International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  10. Regional CO2 emission(in 2030) No constraint Gt-C with CO2 constraint International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  11. Production of crude oil(BAU case) Grade 7 MTOE/year Grade 5 Grade 2 Grade 4 Grade 3 Grade 6 Grade 1 year International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  12. Differences in CO2 emission(in 2030) Purchase credit No constraint Mt-C with CO2 constraint Sell credit International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  13. Capacity of power plants (World, in 2030) GW International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  14. Electricity generation (Japan, in 2030) GWh International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  15. Electricity generation (China, in 2030) GWh International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  16. Energy consumption by fossil fuel conversion tech. (in 2030) MTOE GTL and DME will not be installed at the regions where CO2 constraints will be applied since CO2 is emitted during the process. International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  17. Energy consumption by vehicles (in 2030) MTOE * The share of hybrid vehicles in number is twice because the efficiency of them is twice of gasoline vehicles International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  18. Current price range of EU allowance Differences in total cost between each case and the SR cases Emission trading cost = Total amount of excess (insufficient) emissions by region Cost of emission trading Credit Value ($/ton-CO2) year International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  19. Conclusion • Global CO2 emission will be doubled in 2030 from the 1990 level in the BAU case. • Introduction of clean-coal technologies is important in Japan and other countries. • Advanced fuel conversion technologies and alternative fuel vehicles will be introduced irrelevant to CO2 constraints. • The theoretical cost of emission trading in 2030 will be $36-$145 per ton-CO2. International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

  20. Scope of the METEO model International Energy Workshop, Kyoto

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