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Swiss panel survey about mobility and car choice behavior

Swiss panel survey about mobility and car choice behavior. Dr. Peter de Haan & Anja Peters 08/2004 – 07/2007. Focus on passenger cars Focus on - car ownership/transaction - car choice (new cars only). Table of contents. Background Wave 1 – design Wave 2 – design Wave 3 – design

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Swiss panel survey about mobility and car choice behavior

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  1. Swiss panel survey about mobility and car choice behavior Dr. Peter de Haan & Anja Peters 08/2004 – 07/2007

  2. Focus on passenger cars • Focus on- car ownership/transaction- car choice (new cars only)

  3. Table of contents • Background • Wave 1 – design • Wave 2 – design • Wave 3 – design • Wave 1 – results

  4. Background

  5. 3 years (Aug 2004–Jul 2007) Funding: mainly ETHZ, sponsoring by Swiss car importers (auto-suisse) and swissoil (Erdölvereinigung) Project team: interdisciplinary Peter de Haan (socio-physicist) Anja Peters (psychologist) Michel Müller (physicist) ETH research project „how do people buy fuel-efficient cars“

  6. Average fuel consumption 1996-2004 (solid bars) and efficiency gains 2005-2008 (striped bars) required to meet Swiss agreement target

  7. The (often very short) period of car choice decision making is a dominant parameter for sustainable mobility • Average mileage/car: 160‘000 km. • Average lifetime: 11 years. • Sold as second-hand car every 4 to 5 years. • Every car is driven up to the end of its technical lifetime, no matter what its fuel-efficiency is. • Technology potential: • Up to –40% fuel consumption without loss of functionality • =up to –10% of per capita total energy consumption in 2004

  8. CO2 emissions from road transport increase all the same • Increase in vkm- Increase in veh. stock • Technical potential to further reduce CO2 em. • Importance of understanding car choice decision making …

  9. Same car, same functionality,large differences in CO2 emissions:It‘s up to the consumer… The Opel Zafira (fourth-most sold car in Switzerland in 2004) is on offer with engines with CO2 emissions ranging from 165 to 228 g/km (+38% difference).

  10. Same car, same functionality,large differences in CO2 emissions:It‘s up to the consumer… Opel Zafira 1.9 CDI Essentia DPF, Opel Zafira 2.0i 16V T Cosmo,6.1 Liter diesel/100 km, 9.5 Liter gasoline/100 km,165 g CO2/km 228 g CO2/km

  11. Research question • Who is buying new cars? • What does his/her decision process look like • His/her preferences? • Why doesn‘t he/she do what politicans would like to see? • Can we understand this and influence consumers such that after all, they indeed behave like politicans want them to?

  12. Wave 1 – design

  13. Panel survey – overall design already done ESTIMATED

  14. Sampling Electronic phone book May 2005 Transfer all 3‘338‘333 private household entries one-by-one to ASCII files (batch job, 70 hrs) Filter for multiple entries (key: phone number) Random sample (excluding those already contacted in other surveys by our group)

  15. Lottery • Total EUR 665(1x EUR 400, 1x EUR 135, 2x EUR 65)(1x CHF 600, 1x CHF 200, 2x CHF 100) • No indication to participants on number of questionaires

  16. Panel participation question

  17. Wave 1: return rates

  18. Base survey • 16 pages • 55 questions • 10 open questions Life events & car ownershipbiography: 12 pages

  19. Questions on car ownership • Incl. fuel type, gearbox, vintage, and year of purchase • Allows for identification in vehicle type registration data base („Typengenehmigung“/type approval) in ca. 88% of all cases exactly, 98% with some assumptions

  20. Wave 1: structure and topics • 2 questionnaires (total: 5890): • Base survey (ca. 4000 questionnaires) • Life events and car ownership biography:Questionnaire about life events (marriage, change of residence or employer, birth, death, etc.), mobility and vehicle ownership in the last 15 years („Lebensverlaufskalender“) (ca. 2000 questionnaires) => Important basic questions in both versions

  21. Wave 1: Basic questions in both versions • Relevance of the topic:=> car ownership and availability=> car purchase in past and future=> car kilometres per year • Sociodemographic data:=> position in household => number of persons in household=> age=> sex=> education => in training / employed / retired=> income of household

  22. Wave 1: topics in the base survey • Decision criteria & process (for last purchase & for next purchase):=> criteria => preferences of brand, class, modell, fuel…=> source of information=> heuristics=> order of single decisions => other persons participating in the decision=> etc. • Measures to reduce fuel consumption=> acceptance => reaction • Data of currently owned vehicles => brand, model, engine capacity, fuel, gear shift, year of construction, new/ used/ demonstration car

  23. Wave 1: topics in „life events/car ownership biography“ • Data on last 8 vehicles owned by the household=> brand, model, engine capacity, fuel, gear shift, year of construction, new/ used/ demonstration car • mobility and vehicle ownership from 1991 to 2005:=> time of ownership of last 8 vehicles=> important events in family and professional life=> living place and time for travelling to work=> number of persons/ children/ persons with driving license in the household => ownership of time tickets for public transport=> transport mode used most often for travelling to work

  24. Waves 2 + 3 – design

  25. Planning Wave 2 (February 2006) Wave 2: 2 main parts • Questions related to psychological constructs (attitudes, norms, values, beliefs,etc.) • Choice tasks (s. picture)

  26. Wave 2: design of choice tasks • Discrete Choice Analysis • „random“ construction of3 vehicles to choose from(e.g. Sawtooth software) • Attributes must not becorrelated(orthogonal design)

  27. Wave 2: design of choice tasks

  28. Engine size correlates with fuel consumption use relative fuel-efficiency instead

  29. Engine size correlates with fuel consumption use relative fuel-efficiency instead

  30. Wave 2: time table • Draft version 28.11. • Final version 12.12. • Translation into French 16.12.–22.12 • Pretest print 2.1., send 5.1., data entry 19.1. • To printer 25.01.06 • Shipping (prioritaire) Thursday 2.2.06 • 1st reminder (letter only) after 3 weeks • 2nd reminder (letter + questionnaire) after 6 weeks • Notification winners lottery contest(1x EUR 420.- / 1x EUR 140.- / 2x EUR 70.-) after 9 weeks

  31. Planning Wave 3 (June 2006) Wave 3: • Whole panel: postcard („Have you bought a car? Which one?“) • If email-adress available:Internet survey on step-wise process of car choice(software MouseLab, contact with group of Prof. Gigerenzer, MPI Berlin)

  32. Wave 1 – first results

  33. The Swiss new car purchaser… • … is 74.4% male • … is 49.8 years old • ... lives in a household with a total monthly income of CHF 8000 - 10‘000 (EUR 5500 – 7000) • … lives in a household owning 1.5 cars

  34. Bounded rationality:Time for decision process > 40.8% decided within 2 weeks

  35. Bounded rationality:a) brand retention; b) limited choice set • 55.6% only consider 1 brand • 75.1% consider only one vehicle model „seriously“

  36. First decided in the process of choosing a new car size safety price design brand fuelconsumption gear fueltype enginesize 4WD accele-ration emissionlevel

  37. Acceptance of measures to reduce fuel consumption „should be done“ (Std. dev. = 1,1 – 1,57) regulationsfor carmanufactures tax bene-fits forfuel-eff. cars reduce oilfor heating,not automotive buy CO2certificatesabroad increasefuelprice „should not be done“

  38. Reaction to premiums for purchase of (relative) fuel-efficient cars „stimme voll und ganz zu“ (Std. dev. = 1,33 – 1,49) „stimme überhaupt nicht zu“

  39. Effects of premiums vs. car buyer segments Correlation with preferred car size class

  40. Thank you for your attention!

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