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LUIS S. VARGAS Area de Energia Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica Universidad de Chile

Principales tendencias de las energías renovables en las economías de la cuenca del Pacífico. LUIS S. VARGAS Area de Energia Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica Universidad de Chile. OUTLINE. PRESENT SITUATION IN APEC REFERENCE SCENARIO ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FUEL AND CO2 EMISSIONS

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LUIS S. VARGAS Area de Energia Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica Universidad de Chile

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  1. Principales tendencias de las energías renovables en las economías de la cuenca del Pacífico LUIS S. VARGAS Area de Energia Departamento de Ingenieria Electrica Universidad de Chile

  2. OUTLINE • PRESENT SITUATION IN APEC • REFERENCE SCENARIO • ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS • FUEL AND CO2 EMISSIONS • PHASING OUT TECHNOLOGIES • THE CHALLENGE ON NRE TECHNOLOGIES • THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES • OBJECTIVES OF CURRENT PROJECT • SUMMARY

  3. APEC REGION • Australia, Canada, Brunei Darussalam, Hong Kong China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Chinese Taiwan, USA. • Chile, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico. • Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, Peru, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam. • China, Russia.

  4. Solid to Gas in less than 100 years… H2 & CH4 to account for more than 30% by 2030 Source:Shell 2001

  5. Biomass 50% Geothermal 24% Wind 6% Other 20% (PV, Small Hydro, Tide, etc.) Conventional PROJECTED APEC ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION FOR YEAR 2005 NRE still a minor player in the energy arena due to lack of competitiveness under current policy and market rules. PRESENT SITUATION IN APEC

  6. ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION TRENDS S-shape pattern Clusters for different regions APEC Electricity demand growth is 2.8 percent annually

  7. ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION TRENDS Electrification level (%) in selected APECeconomies 1600 million people have no access to electricity in the world. 200 million people in APEC region ditto Growth will be concentrated in developing economies

  8. REFERENCE SCENARIO Reference Scenario 2000-2050 Coal share around 40 percent, Oil will decline to a minimum, Hydropower is kept around 13 percent Natural gas is nearly one third of the electricity production NRE becomes 8% BUT: Oil and gas reserves may prove inadequate to support demand International agreements may increase pressure for cleaner technologies Security of supply An alternative scenario is needed

  9. ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2050 Scenario 2050 Scenario to achieve similar level of CO2 emissions as of 1997 in APEC region Coal electricity power generation is decreased steadily. Oil electricity production is phased out. Natural Gas source is similar as the Reference scenario. Nuclear is moderately increased (but total share decreases from 15% to 11%) The main change would come from NRE

  10. Total Values for period 2000-2050 Fuel Savings Scenarios Scenarios Accelerated Scenario Reference Delayed Scenario Accelerated Scenario (1) Delayed Scenario (2) Coal [million ton] CO2 Emissions [million tons CO2] 85,213 628,674 67,591 374,306 423,050 Oil [million bbls] 3,600 0 Estimated Cost [trillion US$] 12.38 4.90 4.03 Natural Gas [BCM] 10,180 10,180 Estimated Savings with respect to reference scenario [trillion US$] - 7.48 8.35 FUEL AND CO2 EMISSIONS Accelerated Deployment Delayed Deployment • NRE technologies will be fully competitive after 2010 • Coal power generation is decreased 2% annually starting in 2010 • NRE technologies will be fully competitive after 2020 • Coal power generation is decreased 3% annually starting in 2020

  11. PHASING OUT TECHNOLOGIES: Example of Coal plants # Coal Plants There is a political cost for delaying the decision and also an economical one from decommissioning costs

  12. NRE Electricity Technology % Average Growth rate 2000- 2050 Biomass 8.6 Geothermal 7.4 Others 16.9 Wind 13.2 Solar PV 11.1 CHALLENGE ON NRE TECHNOLOGIES NRE resource availability Adequate technical development of NRE technologies  NRE will have to grow on average above 10% yearly Implementation of NRE technologies in real markets .....

  13. Significant share of wind and modern biomass by 2030 Source: Shell

  14. Solar PV Wind Biomass Solar Thermal Geothermal Biofuels 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Projected growth (shell projection) 2000 - 2010 (%pa)

  15. THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES MARKET DRIVEN BIOMASS BIOMASS COMPETITIVE COST HIGH GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION COST SMALL HYDRO GEOTHERMAL SMALL HYDRO PV WIND WIND POLICY DRIVEN Implementation of NRE technologies requires both political and market changes

  16. THE POLICY AND MARKET FORCES MARKET DRIVEN $ BIOMASS BIOMASS $ $ $ $ COMPETITIVE COST HIGH GEOTHERMAL PRODUCTION COST SMALL HYDRO GEOTHERMAL SMALL HYDRO PV WIND WIND POLICY DRIVEN Dissemination of NRE technologies driven by market profit

  17. 1600 7,717 1400 Malaysia Indonesia 1200 Chile Chinese Taipei 1000 Mexico Russia Megawatts (MW) 800 3,267 Korea New Zealand 600 Japan China 400 Canada Australia 200 1,645 0 1993 2000 2003 Installed Wind Capacity in Selected APEC Economies Can this growth be sustained through 2030? … or will it grow more rapidly? Source :AWEA

  18. 700 600 500 JPN USA 400 AUS Megawatts (MW) MEX 300 CAN ROK 200 100 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Installed PV Capacity Expansion for APEC Economies What would be the impact of further technological breakthrough by 2030?

  19. Challenges of Electricity Market Design • Assessing thereal costs of providing electricity • Externality Costs • To estimate marginal cost for traditional technologies (Coal, Gas, and Oil-based) with incorporation of flue gas mitigation processes. • To assess different types of subsidy received by conventional energy producers. • Markets for NRE • Market design not suitable for NRE • Explore different approaches to incorporate external costs in markets • To estimate potential market for NRE in APEC

  20. EXTERNALITY COSTS cents/kWh, $1992 Sources: Swezey, B. G.; Porter, K. L.; Feher, J. S. (1994). “Potential Impact of Externalities Considerations on the Market for Biomass Power Technologies. Report No. TP-462-5789. National Renewable Energy Lab, Golden, Colorado. Energy Information Administration (1995). “Electricity Generation and Environmental Externalities EIA Externalities report: Case Studies.” DOE/EIA-0598. Department of Energy, Washington, D.C. http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/external/external.pdf

  21. Markets for NRE Electricity • In APEC region electricity markets have different structures: • Centralized monopoly • Regulated competition • Fully deregulated • Tax and subsidy structure also present a great diversity • Market integration may accelerate deployment process for NRE technologies

  22. Markets for NRE Electricity Infrastructural integration Regulatory integration Commercial integration No regional integration APEC REGION Mercosur Nordpool Desired market with clear rules for NRE (Distributed Generation) have to be implemented APEC IN THE FUTURE Full regional integration Ultimately the market is the main driver for deployment of any technological advance

  23. SUMMARY • APEC has a wide variety of NR policies • Greater deployment of NRE in APEC region requires clear market rules for Distributed Generation • Market structures as a driver for NRE • Diversification of energy sources from NRE improves energy security • Emission reduction: Nuclear or NRE

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