Jean-Fran çois Janin Jun Li MEEDDAT AFCDUD

1. Jean-François Janin Jun Li MEEDDAT AFCDUD Evaluation of carbon emission in multi-modal urban transport – a Sino-French joint research proposal 3rd THNS Forum 11-12 September 2010, Shanghai

2. Why evaluation is necessary? • Transport sector accounts for more than 20% (IEA, 2006) of global carbon dioxide emissions (40% of GHG emissions in California). • Sustainability (of a new THNS line, of the whole transport system of a city, of the whole city including housing ...) implies minimization of energy consumption and CO2 emissions to satisfy the same level of demand for mobility (service or utility). • Strong public willingness to reduce the emissions from transport with co-benefits (mitigation of air pollution, security of energy supply , reduction of congestion, public health) However, few work has been done to provide simple and efficient tools for decision makers to evaluate (in particular developing countries): - Performance (in terms of energy and CO2) of an isolated system - Current emissions of a specific territory - Forecasts of emissions under certain conditions

3. Some basic elements for evaluation: Framework UN Convention on Climate Change recommend actions to identify data to be collected, indicators to be produced to evaluate, communicate and verify the impact of actions taken to reduce impacts of transport on the climate In ARTEMIS Europeanproject (Assessment and Reliability of Transport Emission Models and Inventory Systems), light and heavy vehicles were tested and a data base on emissions in various conditions was created ADEME (French Agency for Environment and Energy Control) and Deloitte consulting company have evaluate the energy efficiency and GHG emission factors of several transport modes Surveys on number of vehicles and their use in several Chinese cities

4. ARTEMIS results • Tests were made in 2005 to explore the influence of many factors: • type of cars • various driving conditions (congestion, average speed..;) • loading • Slope of the road • type of fuel used • Level of performance (Euro 2 to 4) • The model issued in the project can help to simulate emissions at various levels (macroscopic to microscopic) http://www.inrets.fr/js/ur/lte/publi-autresactions/fichesresultats/ficheartemis/artemis.html

5. Urban trips become ++ motorized Source: World Bank

6. Main drivers of emissions in Chinese cities Source : World Bank 2009

7. Transport is a daunting challenge to climate change mitigation in China • Empirical studies show extremely high income elasticity of vehicle ownership and fuel consumption in China (LR σis nearly 3!) • Demand for petrol in transport sector will more than triple from 133 Mtoe in 2006 to 465 Mtoe by 2030 (IEA 2006) • Passenger vehicles could increase ten-fold in the next 25 years in China and transport oil consumption is expected to quadruple in 2030 relative to 2005.CATs projected 6-fold increase in total vehicle population in cities • GHG emissions in road transport in 2030 would increase 5 fold in the BAU to exceed the total emission in EU by 2025 • Robust methodology and scientific evaluation instruments are needed to tackle the challenge in transport emission control

8. Cars and HDV account for the bulk of transport emissions in cities

9. Ways of reducing CO2 in transport • From the above equations, we see there are four main ways to reduce CO2 emissions from transport : • Operational - reducing energy use and emissions per vehicle km (vkm) driven. • Strategic - optimisation of the vehicle use, reducing total vehicle km per passenger km (pkm) or per tonne km (tkm). • Demand: reducing the overall demand (pkm or tkm) for travel (through smart organisation of urban planning and transport infrastructure) • Fuel switching : using alternative fuel ( biofuels, electric or hybrid cars, hydrogen…)

10. Objective of evaluation From urban planner’s perspective • More refined technical methods need to be developed coupled with macro-analysis • Identifying the key determinants of urban displacement patterns and analysis of energy consumption in urban transport • Building appropriate evaluation tools of urban transport GHG emissions • Devising counter-measures to curtail transport-related emissions based on quantitative analysis and modelling

11. Objective (cont’d) From urban dwellers and firms’ perspectives • Indicators for eco-mobility and green trips • Can be used as eco-index comparer of different transport modes to citizens • Provide indicators to firms and enterprises (e.g. logistic companies) in terms of environmental performance • Promote low-carbon transport modes in computable and transparent fashion

12. Emission estimation method (1) World Bank (2009) report approach to estimating energy and emissions E (2)

13. Survey and data accuracy are critical • Vehicle use survey • Number of trips per day and travelled distance • Km/yr by vehicle type , fuel and use characteristics • Information on traffic condition, load factors • Fuel consumption • Real use by vehicle type, fuel, drive type • Match to new vehicle consumption to estimate gap • Match to real time testing of local emissions

14. How to apply the method in Chinese cities ? • Evaluation will be primarily based on the data generated by Municipal Traffic Management Offices in cities where real-time traffic observations are available. Relevant information from MTMO includes • Number of vehicles-km per hour • Type of circulation • low-speed traffic flow in city center • High-speed traffic flow in open & fast motor-way • Congested roads… • Then we estimate emissions by combining the data with hypotheses on types of vehicles and fuels (diesel, gasoline, electricity…) • The evaluation of traffic will allow to estimate the transport activity (Si in Eq.1) and related emissions taking account of • Types of vehicles • Emission factors

15. Expected results • Comprehensive evaluation of CO2 emissions of urban transport under different conditions, for instance: – A bus line operated in a dedicated lane for high-level transport service • Conventional bus/tramway lines • Buses with priorities at crossing roads • Approximation of specific emission curves of different transport modes under different traffic conditions and time of a day • Provide citizens a simplified, internet-based and user-friendly emission indicator calculator through protected connection for the purpose of sustainable urban transport • Create synergy between urban planning and transport management • Catalyse low carbon transport financing

16. Evaluation tools can be useful input for researches on transport and urban development • Data-oriented estimation of travel and consumption and evolution for the years to come • Estimates based on means of transport developed and calculations of emissions from various actors (e.g. fuel) and their organisation • Evaluation of the effects of an investment in one or other transport modes under different traffic assumptions, calculations of operating costs and emissions • Simulation of different assumptions on distribution of activities in a territory in relation to the structure of transport and emission estimation for different patterns of urban development.

17. Towards a user-oriented system Example of embedded emissions calculator which is integrated in the Paris public transport authority’s online roadmap system

18. Research perspective • Building appropriate evaluation tools of transport GHG emissions and scenarios analysis to inform low-carbon transport policy • Integration of ITS development in urban transport in Chinese cities • High-performing transport management and integrated multi-modal transport • Technical support for comprehensive urban development and underlying transport planning • low-carbon and ITS-oriented transport financing (programmatic CDM, NAMAs)

19. Collaborative institutions (tbd) Chinese partners : • Tongji University • Chinese Academy of Transportation Sciences • ERI • Local governments, transport & traffic administration French partners: • MEEDDAT— ITS taskforce • Veolia transport ; ADEME ; IDDRI • AFCDUD Suggested participating cities: Shanghai, Changzhou, Nanjing (bus lines operated by Veolia transport ), Wuhan, Shenzhen…?

20. Questions ? Thank you! Merci de votre attention! 谢谢关注！