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Risk Inclination Model ‐ A model for creating an ‘Ideal Scale’ of Measurement

Risk Inclination Model ‐ A model for creating an ‘Ideal Scale’ of Measurement. Brady Michael Jack, Ph.D. Center for General Education  National Sun Yat-sen University. Risk Inclination Model. RI. What is Risk Inclination?.

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Risk Inclination Model ‐ A model for creating an ‘Ideal Scale’ of Measurement

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  1. Risk Inclination Model ‐ A model for creating an ‘Ideal Scale’ of Measurement Brady Michael Jack, Ph.D. Center for General Education National Sun Yat-sen University

  2. Risk Inclination Model RI What is Risk Inclination? Risk inclination isa mental disposition toward an eventuality that has consequences. • feelings of rightness • toward knowledge correctness • with the possibility of a negative or positive outcome Decision making with the possibility of a negative or positive outcome is viewed as “risk taking” (Slovic, 1964)

  3. Risk Inclination Model RI CW Confidence Weighting (CW) is used to measure feelings of rightness and risk taking towards the correctness of a test answer selection. Who was the 1st president of the US? 15 points 10 points 5 points Adams (1) Van Buren (4) Washington (2) Adams (3) 15 points

  4. RC Risk Inclination Model RI CW Measuring students’ confidence towards risk taking on an objectivetest is done within a restricted context (RC). center a test item test 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Center of Mass RC = Total Point Value (TPV) 100

  5. RC Risk Inclination Model RI CW IF the sum of CWs does NOT equal theTPV, the TPV requirement is violated. risk 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Center of Mass TPV= 100

  6. RC Risk Inclination Model RI CW Accommodation must take place amongCWs in order to satisfy the TPV requirement. risk 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 Center of Mass TPV= 100

  7. RC Risk Inclination Model RI CW When accommodation takes place, the COM must also shift toward risk in order for balance to be achieved in the system. risk Low 10 10 15 10 10 10 10 10 10 5 Center of Mass (COM) TPV= 100 Inclination

  8. RC Risk Inclination Model RI Using Varignon’sTheorem of 1st factorial moments of probability, inclination can be tracked. CW RIS

  9. RC Risk Inclination Model RI Tracking inclination toward risk CW .00 whereIis inclination; W0is middle confidence weight; Wiis student’s confidence weight; TPVis total point value of test. Distributed weighted values: 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10 (W010 – Wi10) * 6 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 1 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 2 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 7 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 3 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 8 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 4 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 9 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) * 5 = 0 (W010 – Wi10) *10 = 0 I = 0/100; I = 0

  10. RC Risk Inclination Model RI Tracking inclination toward risk CW .00 whereIis inclination; W0is middle weight; Wiis position of value; TPVis total point value of test. .45 .80 I = 45/100; I = 0.45 1.05 I = 80/100; I = 0.80 I = 105/100; I = 1.05 1.20 I = 120/100; I = 1.20 1.25 I = 125/100; I = 1.25

  11. RC Risk Inclination (RI) Model RI Creating a RI Scale (RIS) from 0 to 1 RIS CW I /Imax Inclination Scale RIS .00 .00 .00/1.25 = .45 .45/1.25 = .36 .80 .80/1.25 = .64 1.05 .84 1.05/1.25 = 1.20 1.20/1.25 = .96 1.25 1.25/1.25 = 1.00

  12. RC Risk Inclination (RI) Model RI RIS CW Thorndike’s (1920) Requirements for an Ideal Scale of measure RIS • Each fact on the scale must be perfectly definable; .00 .36 • Each fact must be unique; • The distance between each fact must be defined; .64 .84 • There must be an absolute point of zero on the scale. .96 1.00

  13. RC Risk Inclination (RI) Model RI RIS CW Risk Inclination Scale (RIS)satisfying Thorndike’s requirements. RIS • Each risk inclination score is perfectly definable; .00 .36 • Each risk inclination score represents a unique degree of inclination toward risk; .64 • The distance between each risk inclination score is mathematically calculated as RIS = I / Imax; .84 .96 • Risk inclination scale has an absolute point of zero. 1.00

  14. RC Risk Inclination (RI) Model RI RIS CW Applications of RIS on objective tests RIS Measure students’ risk taking toward knowledge accuracy between 0 and 1; Measure gender differences in risk taking toward knowledge accuracy between 0 and 1; Risk Inclination Statistic generalizable and can be used with different CWs and TPVs. .00 .36 .64 • Jack, B. M., Liu, C. J., Chiu, H. L., & Tsai, C. W. (2012). Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases. International • Journal of Science and Mathematics Education, 10, 889-905. • Jack, B. M., Hung, K. M., Liu, C. J., & Chiu, H. L. (2009, April 13-17). Utilitarian • Model of Confidence Testing for Knowledge-based Societies. Paper presented at • the American Education Research Association (AERA), San Diego, CA. • Jack, B. M., Liu, C. J., Chiu, H. L., & Shymansky, J. A. (2009, April 13-17). Confidence • Testing for Knowledge-based Global Communities. Paper presented at the • American Education Research Association (AERA), San Diego, CA. .84 .96 1.00

  15. RC RI RIS CW Risk Inclination Model ‐ A model for creating an ‘Ideal Scale’ of Measurement Brady Michael Jack, Ph.D. Center for General Education National Sun Yat-sen University Thank you.

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