Tennessee Technological University

1. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY Potential Role of SWOT for International Issues of Surface Water Monitoring Tennessee Technological University SWOT Hydrology Workshop The Ohio State University, Sept 15-17, 2008 Faisal Hossain Faisal Hossain Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Tennessee Technological University

2. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY OUTLINE Tennessee Technological University • Society – What are the policy implications that freely available water storage (+flux) would have for water management? • Potential of SWOT for Bangladesh: Accuracy of SRTM data for discharge estimation of Brahmaputra river (braided) in Bangladesh. Faisal Hossain

3. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech UNIVERSITY General Problem of Transboundary Flow Forecasting in the Developing World: The Story of the Niger River 1. 4030 km long, 2,113,200 km2 2. Flows through 5 countries 3. Drainage area comprised of 11 countries 4. Frequent river flooding induced by heavy rainfall Question: How does a downstream nation monitor early the evolution of river flow across political boundaries of 5 nations, 11 administrations and a diverse landscape? 5. Diverse climate, rainfall regime, soil conditions, topography = varying response of landscape to rainfall

4. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY Transboundary Flow Forecasting: The Global Picture on International River Basins • Hydro-political limitations worsen at the shorter time scales Tennessee Technological University 145 countries are associated in IRBs.. > 50% of total surface flow 214 International River Basins in 1979 UN Register 261 in 2002 (Updated) Faisal Hossain Distribution of treaties with allusion to transboundary flood management Source: Dr. Aaron Wolf, Oregon State University

5. Overview of Surface Water-related Hazards in Bangladesh T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY The geographical location and average land levels of Bangladesh are conducive to Flood Erosion Storm Surge Drought Tennessee Technological University Average inundation 22% 68% area inundated in 1998 Faisal Hossain Over 3000 km river bank will be eroded by 2025 Water scarcity in 7 months a year Source: Institute of Water Modeling - Bangladesh About 1/4 th of the country susceptible to tidal surges

6. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY 3-Day Water Level Forecast RHWL Danger Level Routine Surface Water Monitoring Needs of Bangladesh Tennessee Technological University • Flood Forecasting during Monsoon Season. • About 30 river stations. • Forecasts for public - 3 days. 10 day to seasonal forecast under prototype. Source: Flood Forecasting and Warning Center; www.ffwc.gov.bd

7. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech UNIVERSITY Challenges of Flood Forecasting in Bangladesh • Bangladesh comprises only 7% of Basin area. • Lack of upstream (transboundary) stream flow in real-time limits forecasting range to ~ 3 days. (10 day ensemble forecast in 2009) • High costs and maintenance issues for In-situ rainfall and stream gage network 21 day forecast is IDEAL according to Asian Disaster Preparedness Center for South Asian nations

8. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech UNIVERSITY Impact of Large-scale Water Diversion Projects in Upstream Nations? The Indian River Linking Project (IRLP) Increase of anthropogenic alteration of long-term surface water distribution through planned large-scale water resources project in upstream nations will make downstream nations more dependent on water storage-level information from SWOT. Use of stand-alone ‘natural’ models will not be able to provide answers to all key questions on future water availability.

9. Space-borne Discharge Estimation of Brahmaputra River (a Braided River) T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY What is the Uncertainty of satellite interferometry (SRTM) -based discharge estimation of braided rivers? Tennessee Technological University Land/Water Mask SRTM elevation data Braided rivers have not been well-studied SRTM Overpass – Feb 20, 2000

10. Space-borne Discharge Estimation of Bangladesh Rivers T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY Tennessee Technological University Faisal Hossain Bathymetry data of Brahmaputra river cross sections from IWM Water slope derived from SRTM Uniform flow conditions: Water surface slope=Energy gradient: Manning’s equation

11. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY Space-borne Discharge Estimation of Bangladesh Rivers Tennessee Technological University Low flow (dry season) discharge estimated by satellite interferometry comparable to natural low-flow variability Hamski et al (2008) – ASLO – American Society of Limnology and Oceanography Conference March 2-7, Orlando, Florida.

12. Availability of Infrastructure for Ground Truth Data for SWOT in Bangladesh Tidal Discharge Measurement ADCP Measurement Bathymetry Charting T U T C E E Alignment Survey using ProXR DGPS Spot Level using Total Station BM establishment with RTK-GPS Tennessee Tech UNIVERSITY IWM – Bangladesh offers a range of archived data and river measurement capability for SWOT validation

13. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech CEE UNIVERSITY ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Tennessee Technological University • Dennis Lettenmaier – for facilitating the connection to SWOT • Ohio State University – Doug Alsdorf and James Hamski • University of Mississippi: Dr. Azad Hossain. • Institute of Water Modeling – Bangladesh: Abu Saleh Khan, Zeaul Huq, Mahbubur Rahman and Bushra Nishat. • Dhaka University - Bangladesh: Dr. Khaled Hassan. Faisal Hossain

14. T U T C E E Tennessee Tech UNIVERSITY THANK YOU! QUESTIONS? Main Message Recap 1. Increase of anthropogenic alteration of long-term surface water distribution through planned large-scale water resources project in upstream nations will make downstream nations more dependent on water storage-level/flux information from SWOT for day to day and long-term planning 2. Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins are home to one fifth of humanity with regions vulnerable to sea level rise. 3. Virtual SWOT should include Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins