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The Case for Distributed Storage in Ireland

The Case for Distributed Storage in Ireland. As its wind capacity becomes significant. Executive Summary. Ireland has an outstanding wind resource... ...and can develop windpower commercially at €50-60 per MWh

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The Case for Distributed Storage in Ireland

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  1. The Case for Distributed Storage in Ireland As its wind capacity becomes significant

  2. Executive Summary • Ireland has an outstanding wind resource... • ...and can develop windpower commercially at €50-60 per MWh • Once capital costs are paid, the long term marginal costs of wind power are very low • The fuel-only price of power from gas is already €70 – 80 per MWh... • …and is more likely to rise than fall Distributed storage can make wind penetration viable up to 3,000 MW and even more

  3. Distributed Storage... • ...closes the gap between day before forecasted wind output and actual wind output • ...and so reduces the need for spinning and hot fossil stand-by plant to provide balancing power • ...delivers primary, secondary and tertiary operating reserve in the event of a trip in the generation system • ...delivers reactive power from many nodes • ...can deliver a black start capability The conditions for the commercial roll-out of distributed storage are the best in Europe

  4. VRB Demonstration Plants World-wide Nine Years - no re-invention of wheel needed

  5. Ireland’s dependence on gas - 1 55% ...and increasing

  6. Ireland’s dependence on gas - 2 30% Efficient 51% efficiency impaired by cycling 40% efficient

  7. Winter Price, 2006 August 2005 Price, October 2005

  8. When UK sneezes... Expect continued high prices for gas into the indefinite future Source: FT 6 Oct 2005 & OFGEM, UK

  9. THE GOOD NEWS!Low Cost of Irish Wind Power • High load factors achieved by wind generators in Ireland... • ...and low bank interest rates for good wind projects • ...mean Irish wind turbine owners can obtain a good return from a feed-in price of € 57 – 59 per MWh John Ward – Murray Associates October 2005

  10. But the value of Irish wind Power... ...is reduced by: • Stochastic nature of wind • Difference between actual wind output compared with forecast on gate closure previous day… • …therefore a need for balancing power provided by “firm” fossil units… • …so losing CO2 advantages • Concentrations in “windy” west means wind can provide almost no reliable capacity

  11. What can we learn from Denmark? • West Denmark has peak load of about 3700 MW and domestic consumption of 21 TWh (2004) • Eirgrid’s peak is about 3800 MW and domestic consumption of 26 TWh (2004) Comparably sized electricity systems

  12. Ireland & West Denmark ESB Generation Adequacy Report, 2002

  13. Wind power over 500 MW is usually exported

  14. West Denmark Clear trend

  15. Intuition suggests... • That without storage, wind power feed-in over 500 MW will be progressively more difficult to manage... • ...as growing capacity and high load factor result in frequent output spikes • Wind does not respect time of day and seasonal power demand • Large scale wind capacity needs storage Curtailment is wasteful!

  16. West DK wind output over 500 MW is most often exported Expect Increasing curtailment EIRGRID: Generation Adequacy Report

  17. Batteries can restore this value VRB battery at Tomamae wind park, Hokkaido

  18. Tomamae - Output smoothing (1). Sum of generators output (2).battery is charging [kW] (3).Target output (T=short) (3).Target output (T=Variable) (3).Target output (T=large) (2).Battery is discharging Time[s] Acknowledgement to J-Power

  19. Smoothing at Tomamae supplies • ...grid quality power to Hokkaido • reducing the number of fossil plants required to balance minimum, summer, night time loads... • ...from two to just one fossil unit... • ...saving fuel, operational personnel and mechanical wear Scale of Operations on Hokkaido is similar to Ireland and West Denmark

  20. Forecasting still not perfect sostorage allows some balancing Forecasts Actual output Source: EON Netz

  21. Irish Wind Capacity • Wind’s concentration in West • Will reduce firm capacity • Which storage can restore... • ...to total sum of storage capacity delivered Acknowledgement: IWEA

  22. Storage can provide frequency control in milliseconds 50.5 Statutory limit (+/-0.5Hz) Operational limit (+/-0.2Hz) 50.2 Continuous modulation service Time 10 s 30 s 60 s 10 mins 50.0 49.8 Frequency (Hz) Reserves Secondary (to 30 mins) Primary 49.5 Frequency fall arrested by primary response 49.2 Lowest planned frequency Start of auto demand disconnection 49.0 Aknowledgement: Lewis Dale, National Grid

  23. Also black start Distributed storage gives system • Regional clusters of instantly available power for re-starting fossil units

  24. Favourable economics depend on... • ...growing cost difference between raw wind power and fossil plants, especially gas • ...ability of storage to eliminate use of spinning and hot fossil capacity for system balancing • ...thus saving mechanical wear, fuel and CO2 • ...capacity income attributable from ability to deliver instant primary and secondary reserve • ...raising firm capacity offered from wind • thus saving requirement to purchase new fossil capacity

  25. Danish costs of balancing Jan 2004 thro’ July 2005, West Denmark • Generated 7.9 TWh of wind power • ELTRA’s balancing costs were € 29.6 million • ELTRA purchased 1.97 TWh of balancing power • ….mostly for wind power • Balancing costs were € 3.74 per MWh of wind generated • Balancing power purchased was 0.25 MWh per MWh wind generated

  26. 1.1 GW Wind – 200 MW Storage • Capital cost of storage (say) € 400 M • Unconstrained wind output 3.4 TWh / y • Balanced by 0.85 TWh balancing power • At (say) € 80/MWh costing € 68 million per year • …provided by battery instead of fossil units • Saving (say) > 312,000 t CO2 per year from balance power • + 300 – 400 MW of instantaneous primary and secondary reserve capacity at no fuel cost • + instantaneously available black start capability • + 200 MW x (say) 4 hours standby capacity • + 300 – 400 MW, 20 minutes pulse capacity Eirgrid to provide estimated values from records

  27. A significant Irish market justifies study of local manufacture... ...of key components • Cell stacks that can be industrially assembled • Power Conversion Units (PCS) • Thus reducing costs Cell stacks PCS Units

  28. There is an important export market • Although the conditions for mass roll-out of distributed storage are best in Ireland • ...the underlying conditions making it attractive in Ireland are common to the whole of Europe • Especially Denmark, Sweden, Scotland, Germany and Spain

  29. Country Germany UK Spain Portugal Sweden Planned Wind Power GW 25 – 35 10 – 20 20 – 30 5 –10 10 - 20 European Market Size - Wind Ireland is (say) 3 GW

  30. Next Steps • Agree technical feasibility • Agree economic feasibility • Agree presentation documents • Presentations to, dialogue with • ESB Grid • Commission for Electricity Regulation • SEI • IWEA • Others • Go – No go! • If go - accelerate significant demonstration at Meenanilita • Parallel studies & large scale roll-out

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