Evaluating national statistical systems in the CARICOM region A proposal

1. Evaluating national statistical systems in the CARICOM regionA proposal Patrick Kent Watson Sir Arthur Lewis Institute of Social and Economic Studies The University of the West Indies St. Augustine

2. Contents of the Presentation • Introduction • Some leading questions in designing the study • Conducting the study • Specific concerns about the data categories • Conclusion

3. Introduction • National Statistical Offices (NSO) in CARICOM region have relatively long history of collecting and disseminating data. • Anecdotal evidence suggests that there is a lot of room for improvement in the quality, coverage, timeliness and methods of dissemination. • Data inadequacy, and response to it, is going to become and even more pressing issue as these countries seek even further social and economic development: • “Good decision-making, in both the public and private sectors, depends on the timely availability of information that is accurate, current and appropriate for its intended use.” (GORTT 2007).

4. Introduction (cont'd) • Sufficient concern expressed about data inadequacy to warrant a comprehensive review of the data collected and disseminated by the NSO of the CARICOM region. • Imperative to determine where we are now, where we wish to go, and the steps needed to accomplish that objective.

5. Some leading questions in designing the study • Given where we are now, what are the data needs and what are the gaps? • Given where we want to go, what are the needs, what are the gaps and what is the roadmap to get there? • Are there flaws in the measurement of data currently collected? • Are there data currently collected that we really do not need? • How do the NSO score on data sharing and data dissemination? What are the methods used to share and disseminate data?

6. Some leading questions (cont'd) • How well do the CARICOM NSO compare with each other NSO in quality, coverage, timeliness and dissemination especially give the existence for some time now of a data harmonisation exercise? • How well do the CARICOM NSO compare internationally in quality, coverage, timeliness and dissemination, both with countries of similar development, with NIC and with developed countries?

7. Conducting the study • For each of the generic data types mentioned (macroeconomic data etc.) and for each of the CARICOM NSO, it will be necessary to identify • the actual data series currently constructed • the instrument(s) used to obtain the component parts (Census, Household Budgetary Survey, Survey of Business establishments etc.).

8. Conducting the study (Cont'd) • Some pertinent questions to be asked include • (1) what sampling technique? • (2) what coverage? • (3) what margin of error? This will involve a careful study of the documentation used and a detailed study of the procedures followed to obtain the data. Also likely to involve the cooperation of the Heads of the NSO as it is very likely to involve interviews with the key personnel of the NSO (Head, Chief Statistician, Heads of Division, Statisticians).

9. Conducting the study (Cont'd) • It will almost inevitably involve interviews with respondents to questionnaires and with final users of the data and appropriate instruments will have to be designed to do these things. • Final users shall be asked to express an opinion on what is currently available and what they would like to see available. • Users are particularly concerned about quality, ease of access, coverage and timeliness of data.

10. Specific concerns about the data categories • National Income and Components • Perhaps the most widely used indicator of development is the level and growth of real gross domestic product (or some other income measure) per capita. • This requires data on the real gross domestic product (GDP) and on population. • GDP is based on the ‘value added’ of sectors so that all activities that add value should be included for coverage to be complete. • Questions about quantification and valuation of inputs and outputs inevitable arise as well as about the completeness of coverage.

11. Specific concerns (cont'd) • National Income and Components (cont’d) • The answers will differ according to the sector of activity. • A matter of some interest shall be compliance with SNA 1993 now that SNA 2008 is about to be implemented. • I am particularly concerned about the non publication (annually) of Supply and Use Tables (SUT) as is required by SNA 1993. • A basic SUT has at least one major advantage: it allows for cross-validation of the data. • A more detailed SUT allows for the construction of Input-Output and Social Accounting Matrices which have widespread use in modern policy analysis and implementation.

12. Specific concerns (cont'd) Savings and Investment • Given the importance of investment in the process of growth, and the words of Sir Arthur Lewis about the fundamental role of savings in the developmental process (Lewis 1954), it is extremely important to have confidence in the data on these two entities. • There is a lot of uncertainty about the nature and quality of this data. • Private savings calculated as a residual • Private investment largely absent • What about Flow of Funds Accounting?

13. Specific concerns (cont'd) Demographic data • The CARICOM regions are perhaps most sorely lacking in ‘social’ data. • It is important to have confidence in data that go into indices of ‘well-being’ like nutritional intake, life expectancy and illiteracy rates. • These are used (along with economic data) to construct the much touted Human development Index and the World Development Indicators. • Yet many of these may be based on approximate (non existent?) data.

14. Conclusion • The resource implications must be worked out • Data may be ordered by prioity items, based on developmental priorities. • Enough lip service has been paid to the development of the national data bases • Time to put our money where our mouth is

15. Thank you for the courtesy of your attention