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The End of Cheap Energy

G & G TGIF Seminar. The End of Cheap Energy. August 27, 2010 Fred Duennebier Emeritus Prof. Geology & Geophysics UH Manoa fred@soest.hawaii.edu. Special Thanks. To every one for their input and frank discussions.

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The End of Cheap Energy

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  1. G & G TGIF Seminar The End of Cheap Energy August 27, 2010 Fred Duennebier Emeritus Prof. Geology & Geophysics UH Manoa fred@soest.hawaii.edu

  2. Special Thanks To every one for their input and frank discussions. To all those who are seriously dedicated to finding solutions before its too late. Good luck. To my family for their patient support.

  3. • The END of cheap ENERGY? • Why is this important? • What makes Oil so important? •What about alternatives? • The Future - Sustainability - When might transition start?

  4. ONE VIEW: "The technology at hand to tap the planet's vast energy resources is … improving faster than ever. We can economically dig, dam, pump, and purify all the energy we like." January, 2006, Preface, The Bottomless Well, Huber and Mills

  5. ANOTHER VIEW:"Petroleum geologists have known for 50 years that global oil production would "peak" and begin its inevitable decline within a decade of the year 2000. Moreover,no renewable energy systems have the potential to generate more than a tiny fraction of the power now being generated by fossil fuels." Dieoff.com

  6. Peak Oil Hubbert’s Peak Since I was born, the rate of oil production has increased ten-fold.

  7. Will production drop soon? Hasenough new oil been discovered to keep up the supply? When production begins to decline we will be at “peak oil”.

  8. Why is oil so important? • FACT: Oil supplies about 90% of the energy we use in Hawaii, and about 97% of the USA’s transportation energy. • CLAIM: Survival of civilization, except for the most primitive societies, now depends on the availability of cheap energy for our support systems.

  9. Every American uses the energy equivalent of about 150 "servants" working 24-7.Everything is cheap today because oil is cheap. Human muscle supplies less than 0.2% of the energy used in the economy.We can't support ourselves without cheap energy.

  10. What makes me say that energy is cheap? One person can perform useful work at a rate of about 1 KWh per day - about what’s required to keep a 100 W light bulb going for 10 hours. We pay about 25¢ per KWh for electricity on Oahu - so we get the equivalent energy of a hard-working person for 25¢ per day.

  11. Energy and Power Power = energy per unit time 1 Watt= 1 kg m /s3 = 1 Joule/s Energy = kW h (kiloWatt hour) 1 KWh/day is a good reference - one person

  12. People Power has been replaced by fossil power

  13. Big deal! We can ride bikes instead of cars, change our lights to CFLs, turn down the air conditioner, use electric cars….. Not so fast… Doing lots of little things might end up doing very little to solve the problem.

  14. “Soil is the catalyst used to turn oil into food.” Modern agriculture requires more than ten units of fossil fuel energy for every unit of energy eaten.Take away fossil fuels, and productivity will decrease greatly.

  15. About 85% of our food and staples come to Hawaii on ships that burn oil. The average North American meal travels 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate.

  16. Without oil, Hawaii has no electricity NO LIGHTSNO COMMUNICATIONNO GASOLINENO REFRIGERATIONNO ELEVATORSNO FOODNO WATERNO HOSPITALSNO MONEYNO SEWERS

  17. Maintenance of Infrastructure requires energy

  18. About 80% of Hawaii’s electricty is generated from oil.

  19. A basic premise of this talk is that petroleum will not be able to meet our energy needs for long after we hit peak oil. After that time the supply will DECREASE and will no longer be able to meet the demand for energy.

  20. Hawaii imports the energy equivalent of about 1 million barrels of oil per week. At 1,700 kWh/ barrel of oil, that's the equivalent energy supplied by about 250,000,000 people working HARD. AND we pay more than $5 BILLION/YR for fossil fuels, about the cost of rail…

  21. CAN WE REPLACE OIL? Without oil or a large supply of other cheap fuels, we will have serious difficulties finding (or affording) enough energy to maintain our current lifestyle! What alternatives are there?

  22. What are the qualities of a “GOOD” energy resource? • Lots of it, widespread - solar • Renewable - like trees, OTEC • High energy density - like nuclear • Low price - like natural gas • Low cost-of-use - like oil • High net energy - ?? • Easy to transport - like oil • Easy to store - like oil • Always available - like oil • Safe - like OTEC • Environmentally friendly - like geothermal • Secure - like solar

  23. Can “unconventional” sources of fossilfuels satisfy our liquid fuel needs? • Tar sands • Oil shale • Natural Gas Liquids • Oil from Coal

  24. Mountain Topping to get at coal

  25. Over 700 miles of Appalachian streams have been ruined already in coal mining.

  26. Do we have enough coal? Peak Coal: 2023

  27. DOE Estimate of Global COAL Production (2009) Peak in 2011

  28. What about non-fossilalternative sources of Energy? • At LEAST one "good" energy resource is needed that has a large NET ENERGY. • Do any alternatives have the energy density, portability, storability, convenience, and profit margin of oil?

  29. What is Net Energy?? Every living thing must find more energy than it consumes or perish. Excess energy is used for growth or is stored. Net energyis the energy available minus the energy invested to get it. Some people use ERoEI instead: ERoEI=Energy obtained/Energy invested Net Energy = EO - EI = (EROEI - 1), if EI=1

  30. What?…. Consider Your Budget: Gross Income Net Income= Gross - taxes Fixed Costs Luxuries If your net income is greater than your fixed costs, you can take that vacation to Hawaii.

  31. Consider the Energy Budget Gross Income: Total energy in the fuel supply Taxes:Energy needed to produce and deliver Net Income= Net Energy: what’s left to be used Fixed Costs: Energy necessary to sustain civilization Luxuries: Energy needed for economic growth If energy net <= Fixed costs, NO GROWTH

  32. BASIC sources of energy: SOLAR all fossil fuels, PV, wind, passive solar, OTEC, hydro, wave, …. GEOTHERMAL - heat in the earth NUCLEAR - [solar], fission, fusion PLANETARY MOTION - tides Let's look at various sources and see how they might satisfy the demand.

  33. HYDROGEN George W. Bush in his State of the Union Address: "A simple chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen generates energy which can be used to power a car, producing only water, not exhaust fumes… "The first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen and pollution-free." but… let's dig a bitdeeper.

  34. Hydrogen fuel does not exist in nature. All the hydrogen is tightly bound to other elements - like oxygen (H2O). Making hydrogen FUEL requires energy to pull the hydrogen away from whatever it is attached to. About 80% of hydrogen fuel is generated from natural gas by heating it. Hydrogen fuel can be generated directly from water by hydrolysis.

  35. Hydrogen fuel may be an excellent way to store energy. It's equivalent to a charged battery. But, hydrogen is NOT an energy source. The energy to produce hydrogen - or any fuel - MUST come from a source that has a net energy much greater than 0. Other alternatives?

  36. Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative Target: using energy efficiency and renewable resources to supply 70% or more of Hawai’i’s energy needs by 2030. In THEORY, there is a large enough renewable energy resource in Hawaii to satisfy all of our electrical needs.

  37. The Sopogy Thermal Solar Array at Keahole generates 2 mW on 3.8 acres in the Mohave desert. It would take more than 800 of these to generate Oahu's current electricity capacity on 3,200 acres, BUT the sun doesn't always shine… STORAGE, EQUALIZATION

  38. Hot Oil Energy Storage

  39. This PV array on Kauai can generate 700,000 KWh anually. Less than 2 KWh/panel /day Photovoltaic (PV) Can advances in direct solar energy devices make them contenders in the energy picture? Recent thin-film technology is very promising and production could double today's total generation capacity within two years.

  40. 50@ 1.5 MW Wind Turbines are located on the slopes of west Maui Optimistic numbers suggest ~0.5 KWh/day /KW installed

  41. Puna Geothermal produces 30 MegaWatts, or 720 MWh/day, and its ALWAYS available.

  42. Can "biomass" schemes for using plants to create liquid fuels be scaled up to the level needed to make a difference? These schemes use oil and gas "inputs" (fertilizers, weed-killers, machines) to grow the biomass crops to be converted into ethanol or bio-diesel fuels. Is there a net energy "profit"?

  43. Biomass for ethanol production corn requires 29 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced; switch grass requires 45 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced; wood biomass requires 57 percent more fossil energy than the fuel produced.

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