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MM5, RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer-time Middle-East O 3

MM5, RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer-time Middle-East O 3. Shoukri Kasakseh †o , Robert Bornstein o , Erez Weinroth # ºSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA † Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem, Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine # Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel.

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MM5, RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer-time Middle-East O 3

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  1. MM5,RAMS, & CAMx Simulations of Summer-time Middle-East O3 Shoukri Kasakseh†o,Robert Bornsteino, Erez Weinroth# ºSan Jose State University, San Jose, CA, USA †Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem, Bethlehem, West Bank, Palestine #Hebrew University, Jerusalem, Israel (Funding: USAID-MERC Program) Shouk_mcsd@yahoo.com Presented at the 86th AMS Annual Meeting Jan-Feb 2006 Atlanta, Georgia

  2. Outline • Background • Synoptic-scale circulation patterns • Obs of 03mesoscaletransport-patterns • MM5 and RAMS met simulations • CAMx 03 simulations • Conclusions • Future work

  3. Middle East Synoptic Typesref: Dyan and Levy (2002), JGR • Account for 74% of O3 episodes over region • High pressure over eastern Med Sea (Spring): 25% • Red sea trough over Israel (Fall): 29% • Shallow Persian trough (Summer): 20% • Five others + undefined: 26% • Shallow Persian (thermal) troughs: produce high O3, as they are caped by N. African sub-tropical H, which produces: • subsidence warming, stabilization, & shallow mixed layers • sunshine and rapid photochemistry • Current effort investigates a Persian trough occurrence that coincided with HUJI aircraft O3 observations

  4. Obs IMS 700 hPa, July 29, 0000 UTC * • Eastern-Med dominated by Low-p system  • inland lobe of Azores H thus split into W & NE segments • Protrusion from Western High penetrates inland to • Western Saudi Arabia

  5. 700 hPa ECMWF: same day L H L * H ECMWF IC/BC captures position & strength of: L; split (W & NE) Highs; & protrusion from W high  good upper IC/BC for RAMS/MM5

  6. H L Trough line * Ridge line H IMS SFC Obs, July 29, 0000 UTC • Eastern edge of Azores High (1023 hPa): over Europe (NW of study region), • with eastward (“projection”)ridgefrom its S-lobe; over center of study region • Sfc Persian Trough (“projection”) line (996 hPa): N of study area • E-W oriented cold-front to N: between H & Persian L

  7. L H L H H • ECMWF SFC Pressure (left): Correctly captures position & strength of H, Persian Trough Low, W-E cold front (grey area), & both “projections” (hard to see) • ECMWF D-1 concurrent SFC V (right): dominated by “projections,” with counterclockwise flow N of area (over Med Sea) is influenced by eastern-L and clockwise flow S of area (Israel & Sinai) is influenced by South-lobe of western-H • good SFC IC/BC for RAMS/MM5

  8. . Available O3 sites (Left is sub-domain of MM5 Domain 2); ridge-lines shown

  9. Sites: I = Inland, CU = Coastal Urban CNU = Coastal Non-Urban

  10. Night : 3 AM LST (00 UTC) • Flow Dir: weakdown-slope off coastal mountains: for • Coastal plain: offshore (to W) from W-facing slopes • Haifa Pen. (square):offshore (to E ) from E- facing slopes • Inland sites: directed inland (to E) from E-facing slopes • Low-O3 • generally <40 ppb) • Haifa still at 51 ppb L

  11. Day : 1200 NOON LST • Winds: • Reversed • Stronger: up 6 m s-1 • Coastal plain: Onshore/upwind, from SW • Inland sites: Channeling (from W) in corridor(box): Tel-Aviv to Jerusalem (Modiin station). • High daytime O3 • Max at Mappil, 66 ppb • 2nd max at Modiin, 63 ppb H H L

  12. Obs O3 time series for Aug,1 Peak is at 11 LST. Why? Inland sites: day max (auto sources) Coastal non-urbanized: Moderate day values (less titration) Coastal urban: day min (via max titration) Night time min

  13. 900 Km 270 Km 180 Km 900 Km 370 Km 270 Km RAMS Configuration (Weinroth 2004) • 3 Grids • 20 km over E-Med for background synoptic forcing • 5 km over Israel, West Bank, and Gaza for meso-scale sea/land & mt/valley flows • 1.25 km for Tel Aviv-Jeru-salem transport-corridor • Domains GPs: 45 x 45, 74 x 54, and 146 x 218 for Domains 1-3 • 24 vertical levels • 1st full grid cell at 125 m • Topography GTOPO30 project • ECMWF for IC and BC • Simulations start at 0000 UTC on 1 August 97 & end 72-h later

  14. MM5 Configuration (Kasakseh 2006) • Version 3.7 • 3 domains: • 15, 5, 1.67 km Grid Spacing • 59 x 61, 55 x 76, 58 x 85 Grid Points • 32 σ-levels • up to 100 mb • first full σ-level at 19 m • ECMWF IC and BC • Two-way nesting • 5-layer soil model • Gayno-Seaman PBL • Simulations • Start: 0000 UTC, 29 July ‘97 • End: 0000 UTC, 3 Aug ‘97 • Single LINUX CPU (SJSU-Lightning)

  15. Obs vs. MM5: T(t) from changing GC/synoptic conditions MM5 needs analysis nudging MM5:Run1 July 29 August 1 August 2 obs MM5:Run 4 July 31 Aug 1 Aug2 Standard MM5 over-predicts summer night-time min-T (Bornstein 2006, this Conf)  lower deep soil temp  better T-results  better Winds  better O3

  16. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope:off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites) RAMS • Off coast: South-Westerly (no obs, so ?) • Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE (in obs, but can’t be in coarser ECMWF-results) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)

  17. Obs, 7 AM, 1 Aug: all down-slope, off-shore (except where inland-direct at inland sites) • MM5 Domain-2 • Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs??) • Coastal plain: downslope/offshore from SSE • (in obs & RAMS, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF-results) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF)

  18. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow RAMS • Off coast: Onshore from SW (no obs??) • Coastal plain: upslope/onshore (in obs, but can’t be in coarse ECMWF-results) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs, MM5, & ECMWF) • South (circle): NW as in MM5 (No Obs)

  19. Obs, 1 PM on 1 Aug: All westerly/onshore flow • MM5 Domain-2 • Off coast: onshore from W (like ECMWF; no obs) • Coastal plain: upslope/Onshore (in obs & RAMS, but not in ECMWF-results) • Inland sites: inland directed (in obs & ECMWF) • South (circle): NW (as in RAMS & ECMWF; no Obs?)

  20. O3 ppb 0 0-20 20-40 40-60 60-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-105 105-120 RAMS/CAMx (left) vs. Airborne Obs (right): from Weinroth (2004) Secondary max (underestimated) from autos: over Jerusalem (in obs)  Primary max from power-plants: in Jordan (no obs) Flight Path Jerusalem Irbid, Jordan . Hadera Power  Plant 1 Aug, 1500 LST

  21. SUMMARY OF RESULTS • Observations during a summer Persian-Trough period produced typical (not episode-level) O3 (as it was somewhat N of area) show • Meso (down/up slope + sea/land) breezes dominate coastal flows • Jerusalem O3 max due to coastal auto emissions • Coastal-urban O3 min due to NOx titration • Model-results show • RAMS & MM5 reproduce surface flows • CAMx reproduced the observed Jerusalem O3 max and produced an even larger previously-unknown max over Jordan due to power plant emissions

  22. FUTURE WORK • Improved MM5 simualtions • Modified IC soil moisture to improve max-T • Incorporate FDDA analysis nudging • Compare PBL transport patterns in RAMS and MM5 • Run CAMx with MM5 met-input and compare to results from RAMS/CAMx • Move to uMM5 and uWRF

  23. THANK YOUFOR PAYING ATTENTION!

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