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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System. Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation. The Millennium Institute. MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

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  1. Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation

  2. The Millennium Institute • MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA. • Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities. • MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues. • MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.

  3. Three Policy Changes • Renewable Energy • Urban Rail and related Transportation Orientated Development • Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads

  4. 2030 vs. Business As Usual • GDP: +13% • CO2: -38% • Oil Consumption: -24% • Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%) 2030 is NOT year of maximum impact

  5. 2030 vs. BAU • GDP: +11.8% • CO2: -3.8% • Oil Consumption: -27.6% • Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%) Subtract Renewable Energy

  6. 2030 vs. BAU • GDP: +9.7% • CO2: -6.2% • Oil Consumption: -22% • Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%) ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail

  7. Maximum Commercial EffortAssumed • Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate • Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake • Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago

  8. MaximumCommercialEffort • Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission • Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads • Remove bottlenecks like CREATE • Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030 • $250 - $300 billion • 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion • Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years • Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE • Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods

  9. Historical Accomplishments • During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort • 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II • Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail

  10. Strategically Relevant US Railroads

  11. Railroad Electrification Proposals of the 1970s

  12. ?

  13. Economics of Rail Electrification 20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings Consider DC without Metro today Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil

  14. Electrical Consumption for Transportation • USA: 0.19% • France: 2.3% • USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs) EVs - 17% for personal transport

  15. Longer Term Impacts and Systems AnalysisChallenges and Opportunities

  16. SideEffects: Feedback Loops (1)Relative GDP and Emissions GDP CO2 Emissions Freight Scenario Freight + Renewable Energy Scenario

  17. SideEffects: Feedback Loops(2)Relative GDP and Emissions GDP CO2 Emissions Freight Freight + Renewable Energy

  18. Side Effects:Tradeoffs (3)Relative Oil Consumption Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption Freight + Renewable Energy Freight Scenario Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles

  19. Conclusions • There is no silver bullet to today’s problems; • Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option; • Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories; • Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.

  20. Thankyouforyourattention For more information please visit: www.millennium-institute.org Or send an email to: ab@millennium-institute.org

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