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Plans of MeteoSwiss for 2007/2008

Plans of MeteoSwiss for 2007/2008. Philippe Steiner. 20th September 2007. Top priorities. Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008 still some migration work to do (frontend) Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007

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Plans of MeteoSwiss for 2007/2008

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  1. Plans of MeteoSwissfor 2007/2008 Philippe Steiner 20th September 2007

  2. Top priorities Operationalisation of COSMO-2 until February 2008 • still some migration work to do (frontend) • Preoperational phase of CN MET starting October 2007 • Project for the security around the nuclear power plants • High resolution (time and space) wind fields in PBL

  3. Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Status at CSCS since July 2007 frontends number crunchers Cray XT4, 447 dual cores COSMO-2 2 nodes IBM SP5, 768 cpu DB and R&D COSMO-7 SGI O3200, 8 cpu Cray XT3, 68 dual cores

  4. Plattforms for (pre-)operational suites Migration of frontend functions number crunchers incl. frontend Cray XT4, 447 dual cores COSMO-2 2 nodes IBM SP5, 768 cpu DB and R&D COSMO-7 SGI O3200, 8 cpu Cray XT3, 68 dual cores Replacement of IBM-nodes and SGI prob. by service nodes of Cray

  5. Plattforms for operational suiteFinal configuration number cruncher incl. frontend Cray XT4, 447 dual cores 2 nodes COSMO-2&COSMO-7 IBM SP5, 768 cpu DB and R&D SGI O3200, 8 cpu Use COSMO-7 at 6.6 km out of the cascade

  6. Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-7 • Numerics based on Runge-Kutta • Switch from 7km to 6.6km • Preparation for mosaic • New SLEVE II coordinates • with constant lowest levels • New 60 vertical levels • same as COSMO-2, similar to IFS • Improvement of the PBL diagnosis

  7. Operationalisation of new functions COSMO-2 • Latent heat nudging • using Swiss radar composite • New SLEVE II coordinates • with constant lowest levels

  8. Development activities • Improvement of interpolation (INT2LM) • Thermodynamic: better relaxation of water species • Use diagnostic PBL height in the vertical interpolation • Improved representation of the land surface • Measurement driven soil moisture analysis (MSMA) • Mosaic approach • Assimilation of new observation streams: • wind profiles from VAD/sodar • humidity profiles from GPS-tomograpy • Improve PBL analysis by use of near-surface observations

  9. Radiosonde “High-resolution” COSMO “Lower resolution” COSMO other Vertical Resolution in the PBL • Experienced problems with high vertical resolution in COSMO • Causes for the problems with a high vertical resolution in the PBL? • Investigate relationship between Dx and Dz in complex terrain • Improve coupling numerics/physics

  10. Project D-PHASEexploit the collected information • Issues that can be addressed • QPF Performance of today NWP models in the Alps? Dependency on considered temporal and spatial scales or on the intensity regime of the rainfall? • Improvements: What strategy has the highest potential to improve QPF in near future: Higher spatial resolution, ensembles (of what type) or calibrated forecasts (e.g. EFI)? • Processes: How well can high resolution NWP models represent the processes leading to precipitation? • Predictability: Can we forecast the predictability? Are classical ensembles or multi model ensembles more skillful – or can we determine the predictability from existing parameters of deterministic forecasts (flow direction, stratification, weather regime, …)?

  11. Project NCCR climate IITask Reanalyse Extreme Events • Complete 30 years of COSMO-LEPS climatology • Calibrate COSMO-LEPS and verify • Derive new warning products from calibrated COSMO-LEPS for multiple parameters (precip., wind gusts, temperature, snow…)

  12. Project OptiControlObjective Exploit newest developments in building & information technologies, weather forecasting, automation and control systems to improve the indoor climate control of buildings (energy efficiency, costs, comfort) Participants Sponsors Competence Centre Energy and Mobility of ETH ETH Zurich:IBZ & IFA Empa MeteoSwiss Siemens Building Technologies swisselectric research Siemens Building Technologies

  13. COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS disturbances: weather, occupancy (uncertain) occupancy forecasts (uncertain) weather forecasts Building Controller system constraints, comfort rules energy efficiency, comfort hourlyinput cooling light room temp. heating model-based optimisation measurements Project OptiControlmodel predictive control

  14. COSMO-7 COSMO-2 COSMO-LEPS amelioration of local forecasts for near surface parameters (T2m, GLOB, LWIN, v, …) (uncertain) weather forecasts characterisation and quantification of uncertainties with focus on special weather situations Controller model-based optimisation Project OptiControlTargets of MeteoSwiss assess postprocessing methods, e.g.: MOS (spec. COSMO-7)KalmanF (new for LEPS)

  15. VerificationIntroduction of a new global forecast score in 2008 MOVI = MeteoSwiss Objective Verification Index • verification of Model- (DMO & Postprocessing) and Human-Forecast • quantify the added value of postprocessing and forecasters • based on the UKMO approach • every forecast day from T+1 to T+7 • COSMO-7, COSMO-LEPS, IFS • parameters verified: • 2m-temperature: max, min • precipitation • relative sunshine duration • 10m-wind speed & direction • methods for the score conversion: • Variance Reduction (continuous parameters) • Equitable Threat Score (categorical parameters)

  16. Thank you for your attention

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