A New Era for Crew Recovery at Continental Airlines 2002 Franz Edelman Award

1. A New Era for Crew Recovery at Continental Airlines 2002 Franz Edelman Award Achievement in Operations Research and the Management Sciences

2. Speakers • Anna White, Director of Crew Technology, Continental Airlines • Dr. Julian Pachon, Operations Research Scientist, CALEB Technologies Video • Larry Kellner, President, Continental Airlines Contributing Team Members • Dr. Gang Yu, founder of CALEB Technologies; Jack G. Taylor Regents Professor in Business at UT Austin • Dr. Gao Song, O.R. Scientist, CALEB Technologies • Dr. Michael Arguello, O.R. Scientist, CALEB Technologies • Sandra McCowan, Software Engineer and Project Manager, CALEB Technologies

3. Continental - Where We Are Today

4. Manila Before Sep 2001: Serve 228 Destinations in 40 Countries Sapporo Glasgow Dublin Shannon Sendai Niigata Calgary Manchester Vancouver Quebec Birmingham Stansted Seoul Nagoya London Tokyo Halifax Montreal Amsterdam Okayama Ottawa Brussels Dusseldorf Osaka Toronto Cleveland Fukuoka Paris Frankfurt New York Zurich Houston Madrid Milan Taipei Lisbon Hermosillo Bermuda Honolulu Chihuahua Hong Kong Rome Saltillo Nassau Torreon Monterrey Aguascalientes Los Cabos Guam San Juan Tampico Saipan St. Thomas Mazatlan Puerto Plata St. Maarten San Luis Potosi Santo Domingo Guadalajara Merida Cancun Leon Antigua Puerto Vallarta Cozumel Veracruz Grand Cayman Mexico City Truk Pohnpei Puebla Belize City Ixtapa Kwajalein Yap San Pedro Sula Aruba Acapulco Kosrae Tegucigalpa Palau Guatemala City Majuro San Salvador Caracas Managua Aguadilla Tel Aviv San Jose Panama City Bogota Quito Guayaquil Lima Denpasar Cairns Belo Horizonte Rio de Janeiro São Paulo

5. Newark (17%) Cleveland (14%) Houston (5%) Europe (4%) Latin America (2%) Pacific (14%) Continental Smaller, But Maintains High Quality Product Estimated Second Quarter 2002 vs. 2001 Data includes Continental Express

6. Exceptional Completion Factor 99.6% 98.8% 98.7% 98.2% 98.1% 97.9% 97.7% 97.3% 97.2% D.O.T Completion % 96.7% Industry = Top 10 US Major Carriers *Non-weighted average; data excludes Sept 11-30

7. Consistent Strong Operational Integrity D.O.T On-Time % Arrivals within 14 minutes *September 2001 capacity reduction cancellations not included

8. History Lesson - March 1993: The Storm of the Century and Catalyst for Change

9. March 1993: Storm of the Century • Worst Blizzard to hit US since 1888 • Affected 26 states, with 20 inches of snow in Southeast • Caused $1 billion in damage • Closed EWR airport for almost 2 days Continental Impact • Total Loss of Operational Control • Five Days to Recover Crews • Millions of Dollars in Losses • VERY Unhappy Customers Continental Decision • Create Operations Task Force • Centralize Operations Data in a Common Database • Buy Best of Breed Real Time Decision Support Systems It took days for Continental to locate all crewmembers

10. Operational Recovery N-times Inputs Variables Result Flight Operations Inflight Crew SOCC Aircraft Maintenance Airport Services Aircraft New Operational Schedule Replan CrewSolver and OpsSolver Customer Service Reservations Marketing Revenue Management Passengers Irregular Ops One time

11. Crew Recovery Project at Continental

12. The CrewSolver Project at Continental • Original plan was to purchase an off-the-shelf system and customize for Continental • No major airline had a system of this kind • No software vendors had solved the problem • O.R. scholars did not have the needed airline knowledge • CALEB Technologies had both the operations research expertise and the airline background to deliver what was needed

13. CrewSolver System Overview Crew Updates via the Web • Operational Data • Crew Pairings • Aircraft Routes • Legality and • Qualification Data CrewSolver Optimization Server Multiple Customized Solutions • Real-time • Disruptions • Cancellations • Delays • Diverts • Schedule Changes Legality Checker Updates to SOCC Systems • Solution Request • User Constraints • What-if scenario • OpsSolver Solution

14. Maximize flights • completed • Minimize revenue • loss • Top quartile margins • Maximize yields • and profits Fly To Win • Generate reliable • flight crew schedule • information quickly • Preserve quality of life • Treat each other with • dignity and respect • Open communications Working Together The Go Forward Plan and The CrewSolver System

15. Fund The Future • Minimize crew • recovery costs • Reduce passenger • changes • Control our destiny • Reduce costs by • leveraging technology Make Reliability A Reality • Reliable on-time • flight schedule • Maintain DOT • performance • Produce reliable crew • recovery plan • Minimize crew delays • and cancellations The Go Forward Plan and The CrewSolver System

16. CALEB and the Crew Recovery Problem

17. The Crew Recovery Problem When faced with disruptions including: • Flight delays and cancellations • Diversions • Adding new flights • Reassigning equipment types • Sick crew • Crew misconnects • Crew legality issues How do airlines get crew back to planned pairings in a timely manner? • Minimize recovery costs while covering all flights • Ensure crew qualifications and legalities • Support quality of life objectives

18. Optimization Model for Crew Recovery Minimize (all incremental pairing costs) + (deadhead costs) + (uncovered flight costs) + (cost of using reserves) Subject to Every scheduled flight should have at least one crew member for each required position (1) Each crew member can be assigned to at most one associated pairing (2)

19. Novelty of Solution Techniques • Solution localization • Constraint localization • Cost characterization and prioritization • Multiple solutions • Partial solutions • Computational Experience

20. Integration at Continental Airlines

21. CrewSolver System Architecture System Environment Variables Crew Client GUI Configuration Parameters Socket CrewSolver Optimization Server Static City File Crew File Shared Memory Middleware FTP Message Server Mainframe SOC Database Publish/ Subscribe

23. CrewSolver System Enhancements • Web-based GUI • Delay Suggestions • N-way Swapping • Pairing Splitting • Reduced Memory Footprint • Greater User Control • Other Airline Implementations

24. Impact at Continental Airlines

25. Case Study: New Year’s Eve 2000-2001 • Nor’easter hit New York metropolitan area, worst since 1996 • 12/29/2000 35% Newark reduction for 12/30/00 = 112 cancellations • 12/30/2000 Complete shut down of Newark hub = 113 cancellations • 354 crews affected Other Major Airlines • Up to 3 days to recover • Unhappy customers • Unhappy crews Continental with CrewSolver • Less than 5 minutes to solve • Recovered by the next day • No crew complaints • Fewer reserves used Continental was back to normal operations in record time

26. Case Study: The Reluctant Storm, March 2001 • “The Reluctant Storm” • Saturday – “Biggest winter blast in 5 years” • Sunday – “Forecasters expect massive snowstorm” • Monday – “Tricky forecast for Philadelphia and New York” • Tuesday – “Expecting 3”-6” of snow in New York” Continental’s CrewSolver • Ran scenarios Sunday night for Monday pre-cancellations • Able to wait from Noon until 7pm to modify flight schedule • Solved 141 flight cancellations affecting 500 crews in under 7 minutes • All crews rescheduled and notified by Tuesday morning • Solved again on Tuesday for new cancellations Continental delayed recovery to minimize flight cancellations

27. Case Study: Tropical Storm Allison, June 2001 • Tropical Storm Allison hits Houston June 7th thru June 9th • 32” of rain, winds up to 50 knots, Houston declared a disaster area • Houston hub accounts for 30% of total flight schedule operations • Major crew base for both Pilots and Flight Attendants • Corporate headquarters for Continental Airlines Continental CrewSolver • Recovery one day at a time • Crews repaired daily < 13 minutes • Reserve usage minimized Houston Hub • 749 cancellations / 3 days • 442 crews impacted • Lack of crews Continental was able to continue system-wide operations

28. - Re-planned flight and crew schedule dozens of times • - Used OpsSolver to recover aircraft and flight schedule • Exported OpsSolver solution to CrewSolver to recover crew • pairings and schedules Sept. 11-13 2001 • - Reduced activity to 50-55% of scheduled flights using • OpsSolver • - 100% closure of DCA • Largest single CrewSolver scenario repaired 1600 pairings • in 17 minutes Sept. 14-16 2001 Extended Window - Solved 20% scheduled reduction for the remainder of September - Rescheduled all flight crews over a 14-day period Case Study: 9/11/2001 Repaired 5861 pairings Over a 2 week window

29. CrewSolver in Practice September 2001 % Delays of Major Airlines 60 50 40 Aided by CALEB’s recovery suite, Continental was able to recover faster than other airlines, reducing costs and lost revenue 30 20 10 0 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 9/16 9/17 9/18 9/19

30. A Word From Larry Kellner President, Continental Airlines

31. Larry Kellner President, Continental Airlines

32. Conclusion

33. System Value and Impact • CrewSolver is integrated into the daily operations of Continental Airlines • Better, more comprehensive recovery decisions with respect to aircraft, crew, maintenance, and passengers • Recovery solutions in minutes or seconds compared to hours or days for a manual recovery • Continental Airlines saves one to five million dollars for average major disruptions using the CrewSolver system • Fewer flight delays and cancellations due to crew unavailability • Reduced crew pay liability • Reduced hotel and per diem expenditures • Reduced passenger re-accommodation costs • Reduced usage of reserve crews