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Cleveland Municipal School District. Five Year Financial Forecast October 2011. The primary goal of the Cleveland Municipal School District is to become a premier school district in the United States of America. Five Year Forecast - Contents. Major Assumptions General Fund Revenues
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Cleveland Municipal School District Five Year Financial Forecast October 2011 The primary goal of the Cleveland Municipal School District is to become a premier school district in the United States of America.
Five Year Forecast - Contents Major Assumptions General Fund Revenues General Fund Expenditures Five Year Forecast Summary
Cleveland Municipal School District Major Assumptions
Major Assumptions Revenue: • Budget Bill: • Eliminated the evidenced based model • State Stabilization Dollars will not be replaced by the State of Ohio. • Commercial Activity Tax Reimbursement phase out has been accelerated. • Utility Tax Reimbursement has been phased out. • Forecast uses bridge formula to determine state funding in all years. • Forecast assumes Average Daily Membership for K-12 to be: FY12 – 40,461 FY13 – 39,014 FY 14 – 37,775 FY15 – 36,893 FY 16 – 36,164 • Forecast assumes Charter School ADM to increase 1,100 students each year. • Property tax current collection rate is currently 80.90%. Forecast assumes no change. • Education Jobs (Ed Jobs) was a federal program to save or create education jobs for the FY 11 and/or FY 12 school years. This is one-time money that is being utilized in FY 12 to pay for approx 192 teachers.
Major Assumptions continued Expenditures: 246 teachers were shifted from stimulus dollars in Title 1 back to the General Fund in FY12. Forecast assumes a total of 3,170 classroom teachers in FY12. (2,691 are budgeted within the General Fund) Forecast assumes an attrition rate of 50 employees per year. Healthcare rates are forecasted to increase the 5% in FY12 and 9.7% in FY13-16. Forecast assumes all union agreements as currently defined. Charter School Pass-Through increases $8.4 million each year. Forecast assumes budget reduction plan as presented to the Board on October 25, 2011 will be passed.
Cleveland Municipal School District General Fund Revenues
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictLocal Taxes – Property Tax Revenue
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Current Collection Rate Current Collection Rate Year
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Taxes – Total Collection Rate Current Collection Rate Year
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictState Foundation Revenue Revenue (In Millions) Fiscal Year
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictState Foundation Revenue – Excluding Charter School Portion Revenue (In Millions) Fiscal Year
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictProperty Tax Allocation – State Hold Harmless Reimbursements
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOther Revenue Revenue (In Millions)
Cleveland Municipal School District General Fund Expenditures
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictSupplies, Textbooks, Equipment, and Other Expenditures
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictPurchased Services Expenditures (In Millions)
Cleveland Municipal School District Five-Year Forecast Summary
Cleveland Municipal Public SchoolsOctober 2011 Five-Year Forecast(in millions of dollars)
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOctober 2011 Five-Year Forecast Summary Property Taxes Current economic conditions continue to have a significant impact on tax collection rates State Foundation Revenue The Evidenced-Based Model was eliminated with the new budget bill. A new funding model is currently being developed. Projections are based on the Bridge formula. Education Jobs (Ed Jobs) A federal program to save or create education jobs for the FY 11 and/or FY 12 school years. This is one-time money that is being utilized in FY 12.
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictOctober 2011 Five-Year Forecast Summary -Continued Salaries and Benefits In FY 12, 246 teachers will be shifted from stimulus dollars in Title 1 back to the General Fund. Forecast assumes 3,170 total classroom teachers in FY12. (2,691 in the General Fund) Forecast assumes all union agreements as currently defined. Healthcare rates are forecasted to increase 5% in FY12 and 9.7% in FY13-16. Charter School Tuition Charter school tuition is projected to increase $8.4 million per year over the forecast period. Financial Summary A balanced budget is currently forecasted through June 30, 2012. A $66.0 million deficit is currently forecasted through June 30, 2013.
Fiscal Caution, Watch and Emergency • Lower bond ratings • State control • Higher Class Sizes
Fiscal Caution, Watch and Emergency • Fiscal Caution – may be declared when: • No acceptable plan in place to avoid the potential current year deficit. • Failure to submit a sufficient plan to address potential future year deficit. • Auditor of State certifies a deficit between 2% and 8% of prior year general fund revenue and elects not to place District in Watch or Emergency. • Fiscal Watch - May be declared, if all are met: • Operating deficit for current FY certified by Auditor of State exceeds 2% but does not exceed 8%. • Voters have not approved a levy that would raise sufficient funds in next succeeding year. • Auditor of State determines there is no reasonable cause for deficit or that declaration is necessary to prevent further decline.
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictDefinitions ARRA – Education Stabilization Fund – SFSF: Ohio has been allocated $845 million from the ARRA in State Fiscal Stabilization Fund (SFSF) to help stabilize state and local budgets in order to minimize and avoid reductions in education and other essential services. Education SFSF will be distributed to school districts as part of the foundation settlement payments each month – total foundation support will include both state and federal SFSF funds. The District received $27.3 million in FY 10 and $34.1 million in FY 11. CAT Tax – Commercial Activity Tax: The commercial activity tax (CAT) is an annual tax imposed on the privilege of doing business in Ohio, measured by gross receipts from business activities in Ohio. Businesses with Ohio taxable gross receipts of $150,000 or more per calendar year must register for the CAT, file all applicable returns, and make all corresponding payments. Ed Jobs – The Education Jobs Fund: This fund was included as part of federal legislation passed on Aug 10, 2010. The program provides $10 billion for states to save or create education jobs. Ohio is estimated to receive $361 million from the program. The district is estimated to receive $17.2 million. Funds can be used in FY 11 or FY 12. State Hold Harmless Reimbursements: The provision under which the State of Ohio agreed to reimburse the Cleveland Municipal School District for any loss associated with a change in law.
Cleveland Municipal School DistrictFive-Year Financial Forecast - October 2011 QUESTIONS The primary goal of the Cleveland Municipal School district is to become a premier school district in the United States of America.
