From Price Spikes to Future Agricultures

1. From Price Spikes to Future Agricultures Steve Wiggins Overseas Development Institute

2. Food Price Spike 08/09 highlights 2 critical issues • High levels of hunger & malnutrition in developing world • 1,020M undernourished: 195M U5s stunted • aggravated by price spike & current economic problems • Future shocks & challenges for agriculture

3. Four Transitions facing Agriculture • From oil & gas for energy & fertiliserto renewables • Cost of energy, N fertiliser set to rise • From wasteful to sparing use of copious & free irrigation water • Water is getting scarcer • From high emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to neutral or even negative net emissions • Agriculture emits 17 to 32% of GHG, incl. land use change • Scope to lock C into soil, biomass

4. Transitions (con’d)From current to altered climates • Hotter, more frequent extreme events, altered rainfall • Raised sea levels, reduced & more variable river flows, changed incidence of pests & diseases • Few sectors more affected than farming. • Most projections see overall reduced yields to agriculture

5. Future Agricultures? • More efficient & economical use of water & fertiliser • Better information technology and pricing will help; • Timely agriculture: prompt response to more variable weather • Information technology can help • Much reduced emissions through: • Better management of N fertiliser, manure • Less tillage • Drain rice paddies • Reduced stocks of ruminant livestock [?!] • Store C in soil and biomass • What would farming look like with C taxes on food? • NB: Climate-friendly = Pollute, Degrade Less

6. Local Production & Food Security • Trade helps! Why? • Produce where water, fertiliser use most economical, emitting less GHG ... • ... Not necessarily where consumers live • To cope with increased variability of harvests • Transitions ... • If not made, who suffers most? ... • Most important for poor & small farmers ... & • To reduce poverty & hunger