MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS

1. MAKING SENSE OF THE CENSUS American Community Survey and Decennial Census Using FactFinder Significant Demographic Signals Barry Bennett Population Programs Coordinator Ohio Development Services Agency

2. American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Program-related data Reapportionment/ Redistricting U.S. Constitution Article 1, Section 2: "The actual enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct."

3. American Community Survey United States Census Bureau • Replaces old long form • Collects programmatic socio-economic data • Continuous sampling; published every year • One-year samples (Sept. -geographies of 65,000+ pop.) • Three-year samples (Oct. -geographies 20,000 – 65,000 pop.) • Five-year samples (Dec. - all geographies) • Lower-precision data for small areas and small groups

4. American Community Survey United States Census Bureau Problematic Example: Latino population Geography 2010 Census Count 2010ACS Estimate Abs. Diff. %Diff. Ohio 354,674 333,019 24,073 0.21 Franklin Co. 55,718 49,675 6,043 10.85 Lorain Co., CT 231 2,029 2,112 83 4.1 Lorain Co., CT 231, BG 2 583 724 141 24.2 Lesson: For base population & household counts, use 2010 Census; for intercensal years, use Population Estimates.

5. American Community Survey United States Census Bureau • Use of ACS statistics requires some judgment • Jury still out on utilization • Small-area programs adjusting guidelines

6. American Community Survey United States Census Bureau • Estimates and reliability of socio-economic characteristics: • Divide margin of error/estimate – • If ratio is <.30, use with no reservation • If ratio is .31 - .49, use with caution • If ratio is >= .5, answer these three questions: • How important is a spot-on estimate? • Can estimates at next-highest geography do? • Can we use a trend? (forthcoming option) • Call your friendly State Data Center for assistance

7. Note: Estimates are not statistically independent, nor significantly different

8. American FactFinder • Tons of data, lots of flexibility - both solution and problem • Will cover three approaches: • Quick Start (search term phrasing important!) • “Data Compiler” mode • Bookmarking/save query Go To American FactFinder

9. Census Bureau Report Shows Shared Households Increased 11.4 Percent from 2007 to 2010 Asians now lead Latinos in annual immigration By Michael Matza Philadelphia Inquirer Staff Writer “…older Americans are losing their homes because of pension cuts, rising medical costs, shrinking stock portfolios and falling property values” 1.8 million Ohioans see income drop, report says Report sees dip in 2010; more lack safety net to cover emergencies. Oct 29, 2012 - “According to the government, 780,000 Ohioans are underemployed or unemployed…A growing number of people are taking part-time jobs that pay less than their experience or education level,…” [Cincinnati.com]

10. Prominent Demographic Trends • Baby Boom Effects • More elderly, fewer births, less mobile • Changing household composition • Household Income Decline • Systemic (?) work – income structure change • House-sharing • More young urban renters • Cultural Nuancing • Urban centers with larger, more diverse Asian, • Latino, African populations

11. Baby Boom Effects

14. Counties with More Deaths than Births - Measured

15. Counties with More Deaths than Births - Extrapolated

16. Counties with More Deaths than Births - Extrapolated

17. Counties with More Deaths than Births – Extrapolated

19. HOUSEHOLD INCOME

21. CULTURAL NUANCING

22. Racial/Ethnic Group Growth Rates Since 1990 In Ohio’s Three Largest Counties FranklinCuyahogaHamilton American/African Black 61.8% 8.6% 13.7% Asian 131.5% 81.8% 75.9% Latino 503.3% 94.8% 296.4% All Other 4.6% -20.4% -16.6%

25. THANK YOU! Questions? Office of Research 614-466-2116 Barry.Bennett@development.ohio.gov