Don’t Believe Everything You Think

1. Don’t Believe Everything You Think The Six Basic Mistake People Make in Thinking

2. Thinking is Skilled work. People with untrained minds should no more expect to think clearly and logically than people who have never learned and never practiced can expect to find themselves good carpenters, golfers, bridge players or pianists.

3. Science is a METHOD, not aSUBJECT

4. QUIZ #1) In the past 20 years, violence in schools has: • Increased • Remained about the same • Decreased

5. QUIZ #2) In the past 20 years, violent crime in America has: • Increased • Remained about the same • Decreased

6. QUIZ • The answer to both was c) decreased. • Individual stories have a powerful affect on how we see the world, but they do not accurately reflect it.

7. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics

8. Anecdote ≠ Data Many factors contribute to each individual person or situation. This is why science uses statistics. For example, an individual may smoke cigarettes for 80 years and die of an unrelated cause, but statistics show people who smoke are 8x more likely to have heart and lung disease.

9. The popular media usually reports both sides of an issue; even if there is only one side. Stories are often about conflict and the media looks for the conflict…even if it has to inflate it…or make it up.

10. Quiz #3) The following three numbers follow a rule. If you give 3 numbers, I will tell you whether or not they follow the same rule. Attempt to discover what the rule is: 2, 4, 6

11. Quiz 2, 4, 6 The rule is: “Three positive whole numbers in ascending order.”

12. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics • People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas

13. Science Thought • Most people seek evidence to support. • In science, we attempt to disprove. • Nothing can EVER be proven. Cases may still exist to falsify. Lucy: I think your the most selfish human being on the planet. George: Well that's just silly. Have you met everybody on the planet? -Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant in Two Weeks Notice

14. The process of science is about viciously weeding out the bad ideas and leaving the good ones.

15. Science is: • Testable • Falsifiable • Repeatable

16. If you don’t question ideas, then you cannot distinguish the useful from the worthless.

17. Scientific “facts” are conclusions confirmed to such an extent that is reasonable to offer agreement…but this assent is NEVER final.

18. There are no final answers in science—only varying degrees of probability.

19. QUIZ #4) Which of the following is the most random? A B

20. QUIZ #5) What is the chance of a coin coming up heads on a single flip? #6) What is the chance of a coin coming up heads if I have already gotten 3 heads in a row? #7) What is the chance of a coin coming up heads if I have already gotten 10 heads in a row?

21. QUIZ #8) A popular ESP test uses five (5) symbol cards for the “reader” to try to identify. If each trial uses twenty-five (25) cards, how many would you expect by chance alone? #9) Would it be evidence of psychic powers for someone to get nine (9) right?

22. QUIZ #4) A is the most random A B

23. QUIZ #5) 50% #6) 50% #7) 50% #8) five (5) #9) No

24. The Bell Curve SOMEBODY has to in the top 0.1%: Million-to-one chances happen eight times a day in New York.

25. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics • People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas • People do not understand the role of chance and coincidence in life

26. Chance: The Gambler’s Fallacy • The roulette wheel has just hit four red numbers in a row….bet on black: it is “due” • John has just hit four three-point baskets in a row...pass him the ball: he has a hot hand. • The gambler has been winning at blackjack…keep playing: he’s hot. • The gambler has been losing at blackjack…keep playing: he’s due.

27. What’s the chance? • We must be aware of the power of chance and coincidence. • Will you take this bet: At least two people in this room were born on the same day of the month. • Would you take this bet: At least two students in my classes have the exact same birthday. • BOTH have better than 75% chance.

28. Quiz #10) Please write down the following sentence Paris in thethe spring

29. Quiz:#11) Describe what you see:

30. Quiz:#12) Describe what you see:

31. Quiz:#13) Count the number of passes made by people in WHITE shirts. PASSES PASSES

32. Quiz answers #10) Paris in the the spring #11) Three partial circles (there is NO triangle) #12) Faces? Vases? It’s both! #13) Re-watch the video without counting…

33. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics • People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas • People do not understand the role of chance and coincidence in life • People misperceive the world around them

35. Patterns • We are pattern seeking. • The ability to see cause and effect has enormous advantage • The ability, however, can be easily fooled. • Pareidolia-seeing patterns in random noise • Responsible for ghost sightings, etc. • We need to be careful to avoid seeing patterns that do not exist.

36. Quiz #14) Consider the following: There is a contagious virus in the population. A test exists for it that 100% accurate if you have it (it will never say you don’t if you do.) The test has a 5% false positive rate (says you have it even though you don’t) 1 in 500 people have the virus. IF your test says you have it, what is the chance that you ACTUALLY have it?

37. Quiz #15) Consider the following: Steve is very intelligent, but speaks quietly. He is shy and withdrawn, but tries to be very helpful. He very orderly and pays attention to the details. Which is most likely Steve’s Job: Farmer, Salesman , Airline pilot, Librarian, Actor?

38. Quiz Answers #14) 1 in 500 have the virus. For every 500 tested, 1 has the virus 5% test positive falsely (500 x 5%= 25) So 1 true positive + 25 false = 26 total your chance are 1/26 (4%) you really have it! #15) All are equally likely…

39. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics • People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas • People do not understand the role of chance and coincidence in life • People misperceive the world around them • People over-simplify

40. Memorize this list

41. Quiz #16) Write down the list of words. #17) Which Star Wars character was Mr. Colby posing with?

42. Quiz Answers #16) Sour, Nice, Candy, Honey, Sugar, Soda, Bitter, Chocolate, Good, Heart, Taste, Cake, Tooth, Tart, Pie #17) None. It was a Halo Costume!

43. Six Common Mistakes • People prefer Stories to statistics • People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas • People do not understand the role of chance and coincidence in life • People misperceive the world around them • People over-simplify • People have faulty memories

44. Selective Memory • Psychics make hundreds of predictions. • Some, just be chance, turn out to be right. • People remember the few right predictions and forget wrong ones. • Save a prediction issue of a magazine for one year • Compare/Count the “hits” and “misses”

45. Don’t ignore the negatives. Consider all the evidence.

46. Scientific Thinking • Statistics: individual stories do not make data • Science attempts to falsify • Science takes into consideration the role of chance and coincidence in studies • Studies must be repeated to avoid perceptual error • All possibilities considered, only evidence matters

47. The Scientific Method

48. The Scientific Process