HELIOS: Household Employment and Land Impact Outcomes Simulator

1. HELIOS: Household Employment and Land Impact Outcomes Simulator FLORIDA STATEWIDE IMPLEMENTATION Development & Application

2. Presentation Outline 1. Model Introduction • Model Goals & Process • Model History 2. Model Development • Data Used • Estimation and its challenges • Model structure • Model Evaluation • Southwest Example • Model Use • Model Interface • Projects where HELIOS was used

3. Goals during development HELIOS • Consistent Land Use Forecast • Initially used to refine the Turnpike ME process • Integrate into the statewide and MPO models • Support multiple geographic levels (parcels, different TAZ boundaries, etc.) • Sensitive to accessibility. Able to integrate into any transportation model. • Modest Runtimes: • The model runs the entire state of Florida in less than 5 minutes for a specified time period • Analysis of policy measures other than changes in accessibility run in less than 2 minutes

4. Model History Model applied to Central Florida Investment Grade Project. Forecasts used to 2060 Implemented for Florida DOT at the Statewide Level. Implemented for Florida’s Turnpike at the Statewide Level. Model applied to Southwest Florida Investment Grade Project. Land use forecasts were used in Florida’s Turnpike Planning out to 2045. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

5. Setting the Stage Peer Reviewed • 2010 The Florida MPO Land Use Model Task Force reviewed a broad range of tools and has suggested that HELIOS be made available across the state. Application History • 14 Managed Lane Studies • Wekiva Parkway • Suncoast 2 • Suncoast 3 [ Tampa to Jacksonville Corridor ] • I295 / I95 Managed Lanes • Turnpike System Forecasts [ Traffic Trends Process ]

6. Determine control totals to be allocated Apply Developments of Regional Impact (DRI) growth to known TAZs Allocate remaining: Determine land availability including converting some agriculture land Apply a probability model to distribute remaining growth to vacant lands and underutilized developed areas HELIOS Process 1 BEBR Forecast (Control Total) 2 DRIs in County 3 Allocate remaining A B GIS Process vacant residential, non-residential, and converted agricultural land Probability Model Applied with iterative scaling

7. Model Development

8. Data Inputs for Model • Estimation • Parcel-level land use • Urban Planning Boundaries (urban growth constraints) • Geoprocessing with GIS (proximities) • Base Year Socioeconomic Data • Model Implementation • Generalized land use • Developments of Regional Impact DRIs

9. Data Cleaning – InfoUSA Employment

10. Land Use Data – Development History (parcel level)

11. Land Use Data – Lumpy by Year Build Year

12. Land Use Data – Spatial Variability (parcel variability)

13. Land Use Data – Urban Growth Boundaries (legal constraints)

14. Model Structure – Two Stage Logit/Linear ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk e Pi = Pr(Yi = 1 | Xi) = ἀ + β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk 1 + e 1. Logit Model Estimates: Pi = Probability of Development 2. Linear Model Estimates: Y = Intensity of Development Y(g) = β1x1 + β2x2 +…+ βkxk Where (g) is a log link function Resulting outcomes scaled to control totals

15. Model Structure – Parameters of Model

16. Model Evaluation in Lee-Collier Planning Region

17. Model Structure – Calibration Results (Residential Growth 1980 - 2005) Observed Growth Modeled Growth Pearson’s Correlation TAZ= .58 ZIP = .81

18. Model Sensitivity Test - Accessibility • Significant bridge capacity added during 1990s • Large subsequent observed increase in development in Cape Coral • Modeled removal of new bridge capacity • 25% decrease in HH growth in Cape Coral • 40% decrease in Employment growth in Cape Coral

19. Model Use

20. Model Structure – Land Conversion Algorithm Agricultural Land • According to US Census of Agriculture, FL farmland declined from 10.4 M acres in 2002 to 9.2 M acres in 2007 • We assume this continues; each modeling period, a fraction of agricultural land becomes availablefor development

21. HELIOS - Final Observations • Inconsistent Inputs to HELIOS • It is possible to give the model an “inconsistent set of inputs”. An example would be growth control totals that exceed the available land • HELIOS warns the user and then “softens” the constraint assumptions to allow full allocation. • This provides “what if” testing but also requires user consideration • Recession Impacts: comparison of 2006 and 2012 • New Growth assumptions • Revised Occupancy assumptions • Revised Agricultural land conversion assumption • Policy Shifts • Shifting DRI Designation

22. Model Interface • Windows Executable • Text file inputs and outputs • Ability to turn on/off key features (accessibility and distance calculations)

23. Questions