Y2K And Beyond: The Future of Oregon’s Workforce … Part Two

1. Y2K And Beyond: The Future of Oregon’s Workforce … Part Two Industry Trends in the Next Ten Years Presentation to Oregon Workforce Advisory Committee Graham Slater, Oregon Employment Department September 24, 1999

2. IntroductionandExecutive Summary

3. From history to current numbers to projections ... • Quarterly unemployment insurance tax records. • Monthly employer surveys for industry employment. • Annual employer surveys for occupational employment. • Industry projections based on current trends, computer projections, analyst judgment. • Occupational projections based on current and changing “staffing patterns”. • Always, always … for Oregon and regions/counties.

4. Major factors affecting the projections: • Population growth continues; young and old. • In-migration (and population growth) slower than in the past decade. • Some industries already at record levels … growth rate not likely to continue … construction, high tech, temp. help. • Continued slow growth impacting natural resource industries. • Oregon’s position on Pacific Rim. • Limits on available land for industry and housing. • Economic/demographic trends sometimes interrupted by voter initiatives/policy changes.

5. Summary of the projections: • Close to 300,000 jobs in the next ten years. • Every industry division will add jobs. • Overall growth rate is slower than the most recent ten years. • Service-producing sector accounts for 89% of the new jobs. • But … manufacturing and construction both growing. • Out of more than fifty “major” industries, only five are projected to lose jobs: lumber, food processing, apparel, paper products, and textiles. • Employment growth generally in proportion to current job distribution around the state.

6. Statewide Industry Projections1998 - 2008

7. Here’s a picture of our economy in 1950.

8. And here’s a profile of the current picture.

9. Just under 300,000 new jobs are expected in the next ten years.

10. Service industries are adding the most jobs, but all major groups are growing.

11. Note that not all parts of the service industry are low-wage, low-skill …

12. On a percent basis, the growth is fairly widely distributed across Oregon’s economy.

13. These ten industries account for more than half of the new jobs.

14. These ten are growing most rapidly.

15. Put another way … the new jobs are divided up like this:

16. Regional Industry Projections1998 - 2008

17. Employment in Oregon is not evenly distributed around the state.

18. Perhaps not surprisingly, the new jobs closely follow the same distribution.

19. All workforce regions are sharing in the growth.

20. And the growth is actually more evenly distributed than you might think.

21. Geographically, here’s how it appears ...

22. Summary of the regional projections: • 80% of the new jobs in Portland / Willamette Valley. • Multnomah/Washington/Tillamook adding the most new jobs (131,200). • Clackamas County and Morrow/Umatilla counties in a virtual tie for fastest-growing (20.5% and 20.4% respectively). • Mult./Wash./Till. and Jackson/Josephine counties right behind (each 19.7%). • Coos/Curry counties growing most slowly (7.6%). • Factors explaining the differences: population growth rates, industry make-up, proximity to other growing areas, ability to attract new employers, known events which will add or subtract jobs.

23. Looking to the future ... • Statewide and regional occupational projections … 1998-2008. • Wages, educational requirements, and skills … 1998-2008.

24. I’ll be back next month … • Questions or comments? Contact: Graham Slater (503) 947-1212 Graham.J.Slater@state.or.us • Internet access? http://olmis.emp.state.or.us