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Probing the depths. Reg Watson Jackie Alder Villy Christensen Daniel Pauly. reverse engineering fisheries landings statistics. ‘Sea Around Us’ Project Fisheries Centre University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada www.seaaroundus.org. A presentation made at:
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Probing the depths Reg Watson Jackie Alder Villy Christensen Daniel Pauly reverse engineering fisheries landings statistics ‘Sea Around Us’ Project Fisheries Centre University of British Columbia Vancouver, Canada www.seaaroundus.org A presentation made at: Place Matters: Geospatial Tools for Marine Science, Conservation and Management, AAAS 2004 Seattle, February 10-13, 2004
Introduction • Why did we do it? • What did we do • Main findings • global reporting distortions • global trend towards smaller, lower trophic level landings • future scenarios differ by place
Methodology • Problems to overcome • what (aggregated groups) • who (reflagging) • how much (illegal, discards etc) • where (huge areas!)
Reporting Areas 48 x 106 km2
Area USA - 1985 - Pacific Jack Mackerel –FAO 77
Distribution USA - 1985 -Pacific Jack Mackerel– FAO 77
Area + Distribution USA - 1985 -Pacific Jack Mackerel – FAO 77
Access (EEZ) USA - 1985- Pacific Jack Mackerel – FAO 77
Distribution + Access USA - 1985 - Pacific Jack Mackerel– FAO 77
Area + Distribution + Access USA - 1985 - Pacific Jack Mackerel – FAO 77
Landing Allocated (zoom) ½°x½° spatial cells USA - 1985 - Pacific Jack Mackerel – FAO 77
Results • reductions in landings
Decade with Maximum Landings Decade 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s Prepared by Adrian Kitchingman Conservation in Practice
Results • reductions in landings • reductions in mean size
Length Change (1950-2000) North Atlantic 90 length (cm) 70 Global coastal 50 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Standard Length Change (cm) no data Decrease > 100 > 50 > 5 no change Increase > 5 > 50 > 100 Prepared by Adrian Kitchingman
Results • reductions in landings • reductions in mean size • reductions in trophic level
Results • reductions in landings • reductions in mean size • reductions in trophic level • fuel needed for fishing fleets
Global Fuel Use 2000 Fuel use litre km-2 > 1,500 < 1,500 < 1,000 < 500 < 400 < 300 < 200 < 100 < 50 < 10 85 M t landings / 47 M t fuel Collaboration with Peter Tyedmers, Dalhousie University
Results • reductions in landings • reductions in mean size • reductions in trophic level • fuel needed for fishing fleets • fishing vs marine mammals
Results • reductions in landings • reductions in mean size • reductions in trophic level • fuel needed for fishing fleets • fishing vs marine mammals • data for ecosystem models ->
Scenarios • Plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might evolve NOT • forecasts, projections or predictions
Fisheries & Scenarios • Previous Studies • Pope 1989 • Cury & Cayré (2001) • Pauly (2000) • Current • Pauly et al. (2003) • Millennium Assessment (2004)
‘Order from Strength’ • Rich protect their borders and minimal investment in poorer countries • Rich try to maintain ecosystem services by local and national actions but global impacts are experienced • Overall ecosystems and services declining, some areas OK but vulnerable, others are in peril
‘Adapting Mosaics’ • Management disaggregated; • Increased awareness of the importance of resilience; • Local management and learning; • Sharing of lessons learned.
‘Technogarden’ • Improved efficiencies in food production and other selected services; • Potential to efficiently use and sustain ecosystem services; • Risk of surprises!
‘Global Orchestration’ • Economic and environmental policies • Trade barriers and subsidies phased out • Global initiatives are implemented • Human well being improved, environment???
Landings - Benguela Current 16 14 12 10 Landings (tonnes) 8 6 Techno 4 Global Mosaic 2 Strength 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Value - Central North Pacific 18 16 14 12 10 Landings value (USD/km2) 8 6 Techno 4 Global Mosaic Strength 2 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Diversity - Gulf of Thailand 7 6 5 Global 4 Mosaic Strength Landing diversity index Techno 3 2 1 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year
Conclusions • Reverse engineering works • Place matters • Policy matters • It is not too late
Acknowledgements The Sea Around Us project is a UBC Fisheries Centre partnership with the Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia, USA Collaborators: Peter Tyedmers, Dalhousie University Adrian Kitchingman, Fred Valdez and other Sea Around Us Project and Fisheries Centre colleagues VISIT OUR WEB SITE: WWW.SEAAROUNDUS.ORG THANK YOU
Acknowledgements The Sea Around Us project is a UBC Fisheries Centre partnership with the Pew Charitable Trusts of Philadelphia, USA Collaborators: Peter Tyedmers, Dalhousie University Adrian Kitchingman, Fred Valdez and other Sea Around Us Project and Fisheries Centre colleagues VISIT OUR WEB SITE: WWW.SEAAROUNDUS.ORG THANK YOU
Trophic Level Change (1950-2000) Trophic Level Change no data Decrease >1 >.5 >.1 no change Increase >.1 >.5 >1 Prepared by Adrian Kitchingman Scientific American July 2003